With SSP focusing its guns on Massachussetts earlier in the week, we held this poll in reserve until things got a little less crazy. Let’s have a look.
Rasmussen (1/14, likely voters, 10/15 in parens):
Charlie Melancon (D): 35 (36)
David Vitter (R-inc): 53 (46)
SOther: 4 (5)
Not sure: 8 (13)Charlie Melancon (D): 31 (33)
Jay Dardenne (R): 53 (46)
Other: 6 (6)
Not sure: 10 (15)
(MoE: ±4.5%)
The second match-up, of course, is now a moot point:
Louisiana Secretary of State Jay Dardenne on Tuesday announced that he will not challenge Sen. David Vitter in the GOP primary this fall, ending months of speculation about the possibility of a high-profile intraparty fight in the Bayou State.
“After much consideration, I have decided not to seek the U.S. Senate seat this year,” Dardenne said in a statement. “My family and I thank the many Louisianians who have encouraged me to run, but I believe my role is to serve the people here in Baton Rouge rather than in Washington.” […]
“I have spoken to Sen. Vitter and encouraged him to continue fighting for fiscal responsibility and common sense in our nation’s capital,” Dardenne said.
A Dardenne run always struck me as more wishful thinking than an active possibility, but Vitter has to be pleased, nonetheless — this is probably the best week for him in a long time.
RaceTracker Wiki: LA-Sen
but even that in present (very toxic for Democrats, and, especially – in states like Louisiana) is not guaranteed.
The poster above made a good point. He may just be using this race as an easy out and what’s the worst that could happen? He gets to be a U.S. Senator.
I don’t understand why Louisianans like Vitter. He’s not done much of anything during his tenure in the senate. He’s got to be one of the luckiest men alive.
If Mitch Landrieu wins the New Orleans mayoral election, there will be a special election for Lt. Governor. He’d probably have a better shot at that race than Senate.
Did anyone actually expect this guy to beat Vitter with Obama in the White House in a state that Obama lost by 20%? He should have stayed in his House seat and helped Democrats save the House.
Seems like they’re the only ones polling anything, and their results are always skewed toward the GOP. Not to say their results aren’t going to be proven accurate in November, but it would be really nice to see some other pollsters helping shape the narrative.
Let’s not forget that Melancon’s campaign for Senate is just starting. He’s very popular, his name name ID should be pretty decent and Vitter is a generic Republican. If Melancon can knock Vitter below 50% he might have a chance at winning on the run off ballot. Remember, anything below 50% for 1 candidate forces an automatic run-off of the top 2 people. He should make it a referendum vote (like Obama did with HRC), Vitter vs. everyone. By focusing on Vitter’s failings to help LA post-Katrina and with the job market he can become the “other” candidate and
He has 10 months. If he changes the race 3 points a month he’d win big.
Why is it that 18 days after filing closed, we still don’t know rhe status of Sam Johnson (TX-03), Ralph Hall (TX-04), Mac Thornberry (TX-13), Ciro Rodriquez (TX-23), Lloyd Doggett (TX-25), Solomon Ortiz (TX-27), and Ray Green (TX-29)? I believe someone earlier indicated that there might be a 10-day delay as the information traveled the bureaucratic maze, but we are now approaching three weeks time.