Field Poll (pdf) (1/5-17, likely voters, 9/18-10/6 in parentheses):
Tom Campbell (R): 30 (NA)
Carly Fiorina (R): 25 (21)
Chuck DeVore (R): 6 (20)
Undecided: 39 (59)
(MoE: ±7.1%)Barbara Boxer (D-inc): 48 (NA)
Tom Campbell (R): 38 (NA)
Undecided: 14 (NA)Barbara Boxer (D-inc): 50 (49)
Carly Fiorina (R): 35 (35)
Undecided: 15 (16)Barbara Boxer (D-inc): 51 (50)
Chuck DeVore (R): 34 (33)
Undecided: 15 (17)
(MoE: ±3.3%)
The Field Poll (it’s become kind of cliched to refer to them as the “gold standard” for California pollsters, but their reputation precedes them) checks in on the California Senate race for the first time since September, with one big change: the switchover of ex-Rep. Tom Campbell from the Governor’s race to the Senate race. It looks like Campbell knew what he was doing, getting out of the GOP governor’s field where he was financially outgunned (as seen today, where it’s barely newsworthy that Meg Whitman just fronted herself another $20 million), and immediately moving into the lead in the GOP field.
Campbell had released an internal poll last week that showed him leading Carly Fiorina and Chuck DeVore 31-15-12, suggesting that he was eating equally into Fiorina and DeVore supporters. But the Field poll suggests that this is almost coming entirely out of DeVore’s share — initially strange since there’s a sharp contrast between Campbell’s Silicon Valley moderatism and DeVore’s O.C. conservatism. But it makes sense when you think that much of DeVore’s support was coming from the seemingly ascendant libertarian side of the party (and that social conservatives have been unusually quiet lately), and many of them are likely to embrace the socially liberal but fiscally hawkish Campbell.
As for the general, Field sees little movement in the last four months in the Boxer/Fiorina and Boxer/DeVore matchups, suggesting that Barbara Boxer hasn’t seemed to sustain much personal damage from the withering of the Democratic brand. As I’d feared, though, the amiable and well-known Campbell polls noticeably better against Boxer than the others — at ten points, not enough to start hitting the panic button, but indicating that this race will need to be carefully monitored. (Rasmussen recently showed this a closer tace than that, but, well, what else is new.) Taking into account Campbell’s apparent likelihood of winning the primary and the overall national environment, that’s enough for us to move this race back onto the board at “Likely Democratic.”
RaceTracker Wiki: CA-Sen
Winning the primary. The GOP isn’t in the habit of nominating moderates.
Boxer should win this race come November. I don’t see her becoming complacent.
..what worries me about Fiorina is her pocketbook. If the Republicans want to fight California I’d rather they be forced to pay for it and starve funds away from likelier pickup opportunities.
Course we have yet to know how much of her personal fortune that Fiorina got from HP while running them into the ground she is willing to spend.
I think she pulled in almost 2 million dollars for Q4 (I’m not sure on the exact numbers) so on the fundraising front at least she isn’t taking the race for granted.
Right now the GOP has already picked up MA and have an excellent shot at ND, NV, AR and CO and decent chances in PA, DE, and PA. If 2010 is looking real ugly, the GOP could sweep all of these races and keep all of thier vulernable seats (MO, OH, NH primarly as well as FL and NC secondarily). That would be an 8 seat pick-up since mid 2009 (when Spectar switched parties). The GOP will need 3 more races and CA is probably the easiest on the long shot bids. I agree with moving the race to Likely Dem. Boxer isn’t as popular as Feinstein but she is holding her own very well in a nasty enviroment. I thought that Campbell moving to the Senate was foolish (If I lived in CA I could see myself voting for the moderate Campbell against boring Attorny General Brown for govenor but not against liberal Boxer). But I guess he can’t compete with two candidates who seem to have an endless supply of money in the gubernetorial, while he has a chance against someone who also doesn’t have money and someone who not as apt to use her own money.
I do say that if Campbell wins the GOP primary he very well could win it all if 2010 is looking nasty. Fiorna and Devore are much lower quality candidates and I suspect it would require some personal issues with Boxer herself for either of them to win. Being under 50% and only having a 10 percent lead is a warning sign that Boxer thankfully is taking seriously.
If Boxer doesn’t pull a Coakley she should be fine. But Boxer is way too savvy to quit running in CA. Shes’s a little too liberal to be a shoe in every time she runs for re-election but as long as she campaigns and spends $30 million on the race she should be fine.