SC-05: Spratt Leads Mulvaney by 7

Public Policy Polling (1/22-24, likely voters):

John Spratt (D-inc): 46

Mick Mulvaney (R): 39

Undecided: 15

John Spratt (D-inc): 46

Albert Spencer (R): 37

Undecided: 17

(MoE: ±4%)

I’d like these numbers if I were a Republican. Spratt, a longtime incumbent, is under the 50% danger zone mark, and his GOP opponents are still largely unknown, including highly-touted state Sen. Mick Mulvaney. (Interestingly, though, Mulvaney’s favorable rating is in net negative territory at 14-24, which is not something you normally see for undefined challengers.)

Still, there are bright spots for Spratt in the poll. From Jensen:

-47% of Spratt’s constituents think that he’s ideologically ‘about right’ compared to 34% who think he’s too liberal. That means a significant percentage of his constituents perceive Spratt differently than they do Congressional Democrats as a whole rather than lumping him in as ‘just another one of them.’ […]

What does it all add up to? Spratt leads potential Republican opponents Mick Mulvaney and Albert Spencer by margins of 46-39 and 46-37 respectively. Spratt is actually winning more of the Republican vote than either of the GOP candidates is of the Democratic vote, an unusual trend in the south where many voters registered as Democrats frequently vote for Republicans at the federal level. That’s an indication that Spratt is still in pretty strong standing with conservative Democrats and that his health care vote hasn’t ended his ability to win over some of the more moderate GOP voters.

At the same time he does trail both Republican hopefuls with independent voters by 4-9 points. Those numbers don’t seem so bad when you consider that Barack Obama’s approval rating is a miserable 27/64 spread with independents in the district though. Spratt continues to earn a lot of support from voters not enamored with the President.

12 thoughts on “SC-05: Spratt Leads Mulvaney by 7”

  1. I’m not sure the 50% rule is that viable now. Lots of examples of Repubs being below it and winning comfortably the last two cycles. Obviously one to watch though.

  2. Albert Spencer.  You can count that as Generic R.

    I don’t know a lot about Mulvaney but he seems to be a Joe Wilson type.  That is to say, incapable of thinking for himself, and just mouths off conservative platitudes.  He was just elected to the SC Senate in ’08.  

    I think Spratt will pull it out in the end, but Spratt needs to not make any mistakes and take this VERY seriously. The DCCC needs to watch this closely and be ready to spend if the need arises.

    Out of 6 House seats in SC, 5 will be seriously contested at the primary or general level. I can’t remember that ever happening.    

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