Illinois Primary Results Thread #2

2:00am: We’ve crossed the threshold into 99% of the vote reporting; Quinn’s lead over Hynes is 5,400, while it’s a little thinner for Brady, who’s up on Dillard by 1,484. Even if we hit 100% reporting at some point tonight, both sides may head to recounts.

1:15am: Still waiting on more numbers, but here’s an interesting bit of trivia: despite winning only 21% of the vote, it looks like Brady won 61 of the state’s 102 counties.

12:50am: Things are still stalled at 98% reporting in the governor’s race. Quinn’s up by about 5,000 on the Dem side, 50.3% to 49.7%. On the GOP side, it’s Brady has a 1,700 vote edge over Dillard, 20.6% to 20.4% (with McKenna in 3rd at 18.9%). Who would’ve ever thought Brady, who’d polled in fourth place for the most part, would pull it out? Looks like he consolidated the Downstate vote while everyone else tore each other apart in the Chicago metro area.

12:07am: It looks like Dillard should be able to pick up about 1,300 votes in the oustanding precincts (most of which are in Cook County). But that won’t be enough.

11:53pm: What a wild ride — with 97% in, Bill Brady is back up over Kirk Dillard by over 2100 votes. How many times did the lead for this race change hands tonight?

11:44pm: Over in IL-10, Julie Hamos has conceded to Dan Seals.

11:39pm: 96.3% in now, and Quinn has expanded his margin over the past few minutes to a bit under 5200 votes. With a lot of the outstanding precincts coming from Cook, Quinn looks like he’ll end up on top — but just barely. For the GOP, Dillard leads Brady by a cool grand.

11:30pm: Ethan Hastert has conceded to Randy Hultgren. Aaron Blake says Hastert has pledged to help Hultgren, unlike the helpful Oberweis/Lauzen debacle. Sigh.

11:25pm: The kids down at the SSP Labs Skunkworks have been furiously scribbling on the backs of envelopes. They tell us that if the remaining precincts follow existing trends, Quinn is likely to pick up about 2,000 more votes on Hynes.

11:20pm: 93.9% of the vote is now in, and Quinn leads by 0.6% (or 5,400 votes). The problem for Hynes is that half of the outstanding precincts are in Cook County — I’m not really sure if the outstanding votes downstate will give him enough juice to overcome that deficit.

11:10pm: With 93.1% now in, Quinn’s lead is now at 0.6%. For the GOP, Dillard has leap-frogged ahead of Brady by 2,200 votes.

11:07pm: Looks like Dan Seals has pulled out a squeaker in IL-10. With 99.2% of votes counted, he leads 22,267 to 21,605.

11:04pm: Note to Patrick Hughes and Adam Andrzejewski: The Illinois filing deadline for independent or third-party candidates is not until June 21st. You still have a second chance!

11:01pm: 91.3% of the vote is now in, and Quinn still leads by 0.8%. Note that the slightly Quinn-friendly DuPage County is now 86.5% in, and 8.3% of the vote is left uncounted in the more Quinn-friendly Cook.

10:56pm: For the GOP, Brady leads Dillard by about 3000 votes. (McKenna, in turn, trails Dillard by another 3000.)

10:54pm: With 87% in, Quinn’s lead over Hynes is down to 0.8%. DuPage is now half-in, and 9.6% of precincts are outstanding in the marginally Quinn-friendly Cook County.

10:53pm: Shira Toeplitz of Roll Call says that Hoffman has conceded.

10:51pm: Randy Hultgren seems to have this one sewn up – 54-46 lead with only 12% outstanding.

10:47pm: The Hill’s Aaron Blake says Beth Coulson has conceded IL-10 – Bob Dold! wins.

10:41pm: 82.6% of the vote is now in, and Quinn’s lead has been whittled down to 1.2%. For the GOP, Brady leads Dillard by almost 4000 votes.

10:36pm: With 81% of the vote in, Quinn holds stead at a 1.4% lead, but he’s only stemming the bleeding now that more votes are being counted in Cook (where just over 10% of the vote is outstanding). For the GOP, Brady now leads, and McKenna has slipped behind Dillard to third place. Plenty of time for that to flip around, though.

10:29pm: Photo finish? With 79% in, Quinn leads Hynes by 1.4%. For the GOP, McKenna, Brady, and Dillard are in a three-way race for the gube nod — the trio are separated by just 2000 votes.

10:23pm: They spark a fast joint in the 10th CD: Dan Seals is now up by almost 700 votes with just 2.5% remaining. And Randy Hultgren is now up 7 points.

10:22pm: Some more MN-Gov news: On the GOP side, Marty Seifert is cleaning up in the precinct caucuses, 55-34 over Tom Emmer. This will be hard for Emmer to claw his way back from… Seifert probably has to be seen as the favorite for the Republican nomination now.

10:20pm: 75% of the vote is now in, and Quinn’s lead inches down to 1.6%. And it looks like they’re taking a ganja break in IL-10.

10:17pm: 73% of the vote is now in, and Quinn leads Hynes by 1.8%. Alexi’s looking a lot more comfortable with a 4.2% lead.

10:12pm: More non-Illinois news: In Minnesota’s precinct-level caucuses, Margaret Anderson Kelliher and and RT Rybak have about 19% apiece. “Uncommitted” is in third with 14%.

10:08pm: 67% in, and Quinn’s lead has been cut down to 2.4%.

10:04pm: With 64% in (and 86% in Cook County), Quinn leads Hynes by 2.8%. Hynes is counting on the outstanding downstate votes to give him a win, but Quinn is also leading in the early DuPage county returns — and less than 10% of the vote has been counted there.

10:01pm: Sadly, in IL-03, Daniel Lipinski is winning his primary with about 77% of the vote. Not that anyone expected his unknown opponent to put up much of a fight. Still, Jorge Mujica is getting 22%… not much worse than the well-funded and somewhat-highly touted Mark Pera got in 2008 (26%).

9:56pm: It’s time for a new thread. Hultgren is up 52-48 over Hastert, with 40% reporting.

RESULTS: Associated Press | Chicago Tribune | Sun-Times | Politico

170 thoughts on “Illinois Primary Results Thread #2”

  4. Hamos has to somehow pull a 600-vote margin out of the remaining 29 Cook County precincts. I somehow doubt that’s going to happen.

    The good news is that Seals is going up against Bob Dold, who has to be easier to beat than Mark Kirk.

  6. notice how underwhelming Kirk is performing. I don’t think that is a good sign for him in November.

  8. Hynes is behind by 2.6%. Again, I think Giannoulis is the winner for Senate and as for Hynes… There is still 15% of the vote to count in Cook County so that will help Quinn. Still, alot of Downstate is not in so there is hope for Hynes. The issue is, Downstate appears to have lower Democratic turnout than Cook County.  

  10. What an underwhelming victory. Kirk absolutely got smashed by Lowery in some of the counties near Kentucky. Hopefully that means angry teabaggers will skip the Senate race in November.

  11. Uncommitted always does so well, even though he doesn’t really seem to have any actual positions on anything. He’s like Generic Democrat in NC or Kelly Ayotte in NH.

  12. With 73% in, Quinn is leading by 12,000 votes and 1.8 points. There is still alot of outstanding votes but one by one, Hynes counties are reporting 100%. Cook still has 14% left to go. If this race does NOT have a recount, I will be surprised.

  23. …IL-10 and IL-14.

    Honestly I feared Coulson the most in 10, and the Hastert boy in 14.  Whatever the cache of being an “outsider” before an angry electorate, establishment choices usually still are stronger.  And in 10, I like our chances a lot against a right-winger like Dold.

  25. in IL-08?  Apparently hasn’t spent any money but he’s winning handily.  Do people think he’s the Eagles guitarist?

    Melissa Bean has to be happy about this.

  27. GO UNCOMMITTED!!!  That’s how I voted.  ðŸ™‚  And Im a senate district delegate, fun fun fun.  

    Not surprised to see MAK and Rybak at the top.  I hope Rybak gets into the primary, him, MAK, Dayton and Entenza should be a good show down.  

  31. Given how amazingly close a number of these races are (D-Gov, R-Gov, D- Comptroller, R-Lt Gov, D- CD10), are there additional ballots that will be out there after all of the precincts report?

    I know nothing about Illinois election procedures — I assume that absentees are already included in these numbers, but are there other categories of outstanding ballots that could impact the final results?

    Does anyone else know?

    Thanks

  32. I think your notes to Patrick Hughes and Adam Andrzejewski are very fine suggestions. We, the people of SSP, fully support both of them running in their respective races!

  35. Kirk Dillard was the guy who appeared in an Obama primary ad almost 2 years ago.  He seems to be a moderate who teabaggers have to hate.

  38. I think they made a mistake in the governor vote totals. Andrzejewski’s web ads told me he was the next Scott Brown, so he should be getting 90% of the vote, not 15%. I’m starting to think Dillard who is actually a closet liberal socialist got his buddies at ACORN to steal the election.

    (sorry, in a really snarky mood tonight for some reason…)

  39. Instant Runoff Voting or at the very least a minimum threshold to avoid a runoff.  Getting the nomination with just 20% is ridiculous.

  41. for Brady vs. Quinn.  Too much Chi-town left for Hynes to win, not enough Chi-town left for Dillard to win.

    Brady vs. Quinn.  Put them both together, and you have a pretty lousy backup quarterback who stumped for McCain.

  45. He started off EXTREMELY late compared to the other candidates, he ran for mayor again and had to wait til after his re-election in November to start, so only 3 months of campaigning as an actual candidate.  He did certainly campaign like a candidate all along and we all knew what was going on of course.

    Did the college vote decided to turn out for him or something?

    And where is Mark Dayton?  Did he not receive a single ballot?  Or do you have to file something with the DFL to get a line and since he was going for the primary, just didnt bother?

  46. … what percentage of Kirk voters are gonna hold their noses and vote for Brady in the general. It seems like the two of them could scarcely be further apart and be within the same political party.

  47. More precincts in Cook are from the city than the suburbs; Quinn did slightly better in the city than the Cook suburbs.

    Of course, this all really depends on where those outstanding votes are, and how busy the zombies are voting at this time of night.

  48. can make up that many votes in a recount.  There will be some shifting around once ballots are double-checked over.

  49. I feel little danger too for IL-11, IL-14.

    I feel some more danger for IL-State Treasurer and real danger for IL-State Comptroller.

  51. I live in California, but for some odd reason I can access Chicago’s news channel (WGN) 24/7. It was interesting watching it, most of the people on WGN said that Brady came out of nowhere. Definitely surprised Andy McKenna who as they said was doing a “wack a mole strategy.”

  53. By township in the suburbs:

    1 in Bloom

    2 in Bremen

    1 in Cicero

    1 in Evanston

    1 in Lyons

    2 in Niles

    1 in Oak Park

    1 in Orland

    2 in Palatine

    1 in Proviso

    1 in Schaumburg

    1 in Stickney

    5 in Thornton

    In the city:

    21 are in the 1st CD

    7 in the 2nd CD

    7 in the 3rd

    9 in the 4th

    9 in the 5th

    16 in the 7th

    4 in the 9th.

    Brady’s not going to do well here, but a lot of these precincts won’t have very many Republican votes, period. I’m really hoping it’s Brady and not Dillard, but watch those two precincts in Palatine and the one in Schaumburg – they’ll have enough votes to substantially change the margin.

    There’s also one in downstate St. Clair County, which went strongly for Adam Andrzejewski.

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