Reid Wilson & Tim Sahd of the Hotline have been kings of the retirement beat, and they break the news on yet another:
Rep. Vern Ehlers (R-MI 03) will announce his retirement at a 10 a.m. presser tomorrow morning, according to a MI-based source.
A press release from Ehler’s office says the presser “follow[s] speculation about his plans to continue serving” in the House. Several GOP sources tell Hotline OnCall his wife had a heart attack last week, further lending credence to speculation he will step aside.
The 2/10 announcement will come a day after state Rep. Justin Amash (R) announced a primary challenge to Ehlers.
Ehlers was not on our watch list, but at age 76, this move isn’t terribly surprising. Though this is, as the Hotline notes, the 17th GOP open seat, it’s probably not fertile territory for Dems. Obama did move the needle enormously here, turning a 59-40 Bush district into a district McCain won by just 49.4-48.8. But it’s growing harder and harder to see Obama’s performance in seats like this as anything but a high-water mark, especially since McCain pulled out of Michigan at the end but Obama kept pushing hard. In an environment like this one, an R+6 seat is going to be a very tough nut to crack.
That said, there may yet be a GOP free-for-all here, given that Amash is all of 29 years old and is only serving his first term in the legislature. (Apparently, state Sen. Bill Hardiman is said to be interested.) No Dems have announced yet, but we’ll keep you posted.
We discount the numbers in this district for that reason. I had the same thought myself. However, McCain pulled out because he wasn’t getting anywhere in Michigan. So, I don’t think those numbers can be completely discounted.
and the only Democrat to win here in the last one hundred years is Richard Vander Veen, Ford’s replacement when Ford was appointed Vice President. He was able to accomplish this feat only because Watergate.
I dont know how likely any of them is to run but here is a list. And I didnt include anyone at least 70 years old come Nov:
GOP
Sen. Bill Hardiman. Age: 62. Home: Kentwood. First elected to state Senate in 02. African American. Assembly of God member. If he runs and wins he could be the only Republican African American in Congress.
Sen. Mark Jansen. Age: 50. Home: Grand Rapids. First elected to state Senate in 06. State Rep. from 96-02.
Rep. Kevin Green. Age: 39. Home: Wyoming. First elected to state House in 04.
Rep. Dave Hildebrand. Age: 36. Home: Lowell. First elected to state House in 04. Minority Floor Leader. Catholic.
Rep. Tom Pearce. Age: 53. Home: Rockford. First elected to state House in 04. Religion: Non-denominational.
Justin Amash. Age: 29. Home: Cascade. First elected to state House in 08. Announced a primary challenge to Ehlers a day before he retired…so Im guessing he’ll still run.
Rep. Brian Calley. Age: 32. Home: Portland. First elected to state House in 07. Baptist.
Rep. Dave Agema. Age: 60. Home: Grandville. First elected to state House in 06. Protestant.
Dems
Rep. Robert Dean. Age: 57. Home: Grand Rapids. First elected to state House in 06, African American, pastor, ex-city commish.
Rep. Roy Schmidt? (not sure as i only see his home as Kent Co. and thats split between districts). First elected to state House in 08.
Any Dem mayors?
on Congressional and (with few exceptions) Legislative level despite Obama’s performance in 2008. So, new Congressman will almost assuredly (especially in present political climate) be a Republican and substantially more conservative then generally moderate (though pro-life) Ehlers
would be if redistricting combined Grand Rapids in MI-03 and Muskegon County in MI-02.