FL-21, FL-25: Lincoln Diaz-Balart Will Retire, Switcheroo in the Works

Remember this scenario? The one where Charlie Crist was supposed to tap GOP Rep. Lincoln Diaz-Balart to fill the seat of Sen. Mel Martinez, followed by Lincoln’s brother, 25th CD Rep. Mario Diaz-Balart running for Lincoln’s 21st seat in the special election?

Looks like something like that may actually happen, only Lincoln has decided to make a straight-up retirement. From HotlineOnCall:

Rep. Lincoln Diaz-Balart (R-FL) will announce later today he will not seek another term, CongressDaily reports this morning. […]

The district is heavily Hispanic, thanks to Miami’s large Cuban population. 73% of district residents call themselves Hispanic, while just 16% are white. Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) won a narrow 51%-49% victory in the seat.

First elected in ’92, Diaz-Balart has had little trouble holding on to his seat. His brother, Mario, represents another heavily-Cuban part of Miami. CongressDaily reports that Mario Diaz-Balart will abandon his district to run in Lincoln’s, which is seen as tilting more toward the GOP.

Now, unlike the recent retirements of Republicans like Steve Buyer, Vernon Ehlers, and George Radanovich, this open seat situation could potentially yield a pair of races worth watching.

Unlike Al Gore and John Kerry, Obama performed well in both the 21st and the 25th, picking up 49% in both districts. The 21st CD has been the stronger of the two districts historically for Republicans, and I’d expect that Mario’s candidacy would be a formidable stopgap for the GOP there. But if Mario does indeed make this move, his open seat in the 25th CD, where he only won 53% in 2008, could yield an interesting race to watch if Democrats can find a solid challenger.

UPDATE: Mario has confirmed that he’ll run for his brother’s seat.

RaceTracker Wiki: FL-21 | FL-25

37 thoughts on “FL-21, FL-25: Lincoln Diaz-Balart Will Retire, Switcheroo in the Works”

  2. the hell is Mario going to explain this to voters of the 21st district? And just curious but is this even legal for a sitting congressman to run in the special election of another’s?  

  3. What I dont understand about this swap is that the district lines will be redrawn in 2012. Who is to say what these districts will look like then. So Mario swapping districts really only works for him this election. For all he know he could be forced to run in his old district in 2012. Why bother with the swap if it is only good for 1 election in which Mario is not really in any danger anyways?

    Doesnt make any sense to me.

  5. From the St. Petersburg Times:

    State Senate Majority Leader Alex Diaz de la Portilla said he’s interested in running for Congress now that U.S. Rep. Lincoln Diaz Balart is leaving. Diaz de la Portilla, R-Miami, is being forced from state office due to term limits as his own older brother, former Miami-Dade County Commissioner Miguel Diaz de la Portilla, runs for his seat. The senator’s younger brother, Renier Diaz de la Portilla, is a Miami-Dade school board member. So it’s good bet that the family has strong name ID, giving the senator a good shot of being dubbed a frontrunner should he throw in his hat. If he and his brother win, each Diaz de la Portilla brother would represent a different level of government: federal, state and local.

    Also, the senator has recently made an alliance with lobbyist/political strategist Dave Custin, who works for the Diaz Balarts as well as Diaz de la Portilla’s sometime-rival, Sen. Alex Villalobos.

  6. that Mario got some bad polling in his district, so he asked his bro to step aside. There’s no other obvious reason to switch. Yeah, the district is more Republican, but switching comes with some political cost–abandoning constituents always does.

  7. Does every Cuban-American politician in greater Miami have Diaz in his/her name?

    As it stands right now, we could have a Republican primary to replace Lincoln Diaz-Balart in FL-21 between Mario Diaz-Balart and Alex Diaz de la Portilla (who himself apparently has two politically ambitious brothers), and potentially, Manny Diaz running to replace Mario Diaz-Balart in FL-25.

    Sheesh. I have to imagine voters getting at least a little bit confused.

  11. I mean, it’s not as if the 21st is 5 points more Republican or anything. Plus, Mario loses some incumbency advantage. There has to be some kind of name recognition motive, perhaps the redistricting one as highlighted above or perhaps enhancing a future statewide run. Perhaps Mario plans to run against Nelson in 2012? That might be somewhat problematic if Rubio wins in 2010 (two Cuban Senators might be seen as too many, Crist might enter and have more support due to the recognised greater difficulty in defeating an incumbent than an open seat).

  12. Find two democratic cuban americans candidates and send Bob Menendez to campaign for them and the democratic senate candidate.

    The cubans loves Bob Menendez intensly!  

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