The Swing State Project is changing its ratings on two Senate and two gubernatorial races. Our writeups for all of these are below. You can find our complete ratings here: Sen | Gov.
Senate races:
SSP was reluctant to change its rating on this race when Dan Coats announced, in part because he started off hedging about his intentions, and in part because the DSCC landed so many solid hits on him in such a short time, we could plausibly believe he might reconsider his decision to un-retire. Now, of course, we’re waiting for the dust to settle from Evan Bayh’s collossal retirement announcement. Dems have a good shot at retaining this seat, especially if they nominate someone like Rep. Brad Ellsworth. But until we know more about who either party’s nominees will be, the future is too hazy to rate this race as anything other than a Tossup. (D)
Optimistic Republicans seem to be reading a lot into Dino Rossi’s three words regarding this race: “Never say never.” (While ignoring the statement from the same article that he has “no plans to run for any office at this point.”) The two-time gubernatorial loser has disassembled the campaign apparatus he had in place between 2004 and 2008, and returned to the private sector – but who knows. With enough encouragement from the NRSC, and from folks like Rasmussen (who gave him a 2-point lead against Patty Murray), he might feel motivated to give it one last shot. Murray is a more likable and better-funded figure than Chris Gregoire (who beat Rossi twice), but with the possibility of a Rossi (or Rep. Dave Reichert, although that’s unlikely too) entry, we’ll need to keep one eye on this race. (C)
Gubernatorial races:
Man, it’s hard out there for a gov. Chet Culver was looking pretty good for much of last year, especially since he faced a mostly third-tier crowd of wannabes. But along came former Gov. Terry Branstad looking for his old job back, which drastically changed the equation. Branstad’s long and somewhat rocky tenure doesn’t seem to have hurt him, but all-too-familiar economic woes seem to be pounding Culver, along with so many other incumbent governors. The polls have been especially unkind to him. If it were just Rasmussen showing him down big, we’d be slower on the trigger. But respected pollster Selzer & Co. has now pegged Culver at twenty points behind in two consecutive surveys. That’s brutal, deep hole, which makes this race Lean R. (D)
Despite a national headwind that can only be described as atrocious, Democrats appear to have their best shot at winning back the Governor’s mansion in Texas in over a decade. A series of new polls have placed incumbent Gov. Rick Perry in the precarious position of facing a possible run-off after the state’s March 2nd primary. A run-off would tack on another five weeks to the primary process and would drain the GOP of even more resources. Meanwhile, former Houston Mayor Bill White has been raising money at a prodigious clip and trails Perry by only mid-single digits in many recent polls. There’s no question that Republicans still hold a clear edge in a state as red as this, but White has pushed this race into a more competitive stratum. (J)
I am soooo glad to see that you did not change IN senate to lean R that would just be stupid at this point.
If Dino Rossi runs then it will be a race, although I would like some more polling before we get too scared about him.
I do not see how Culver could turn this around. Even Vander Platts leads him at this point, and his approval rating is falling fast.
Honestly I think Texas should be tossup, but I am sure you have your reasoning behind that one.
I’d argue WA-Sen is still Lean D and IA-Gov is probably Likely R, although Vander Plaats definitely throws a potential wrench into that calculation.
Texas is probably the race for me this cycle, outside of Michigan. To see a Democrat in the State House down there would be incredible.
The ratings all seem fair. I think once the dust clears in Indiana, we’ll see a competitive race that’ll lean retention. If we get Ellsworth (as it looks like we will,) I like our chances in the long run.
Why open up another Republican leaning House seat for a Senate race that will likely be lost anyway? Have you seen how Republican this environment is? Democrats are having a tough time holding overwhelmingly blue states like California, New Jersey, Illinois, and Massachussetts. Why would Ellsworth be able to survive the Republican tidal wave in Indiana? Democrats need to go with a businessperson who doesnt cost the party yet another crucial House seat.
Amazingly, there have been no public polls of the GOP primary since Branstad entered the race. The Branstad campaign leaked some numbers from an internal poll that supposedly showed him leading Vander Plaats 63 percent to 18 percent, but they released very little information about the sample, what questions were asked, etc.
I assume Branstad will run away with the primary, but some smart people think Vander Plaats has a real shot. It would be helpful if Selzer polled the GOP primary in this race. It’s possible that she did and the Register will release those numbers later in the week.
I think Vander Plaats could only win if it were a caucus, and it doesn’t help that Branstad has about seven times as much cash on hand. But if Vander Plaats did upset Branstad in the primary, then IA-Gov is at least lean D. If Vander Plaats loses by a little and does a lot of damage to Branstad in the meantime, it could go back to tossup.
For now, though, I agree with your rating change.
You have yet to answer what state you live in yet. I assume not Indiana, and let me tell you something I know Indiana politics. I have personally met Brad Ellsworth, Baron Hill, John Hostettler, and Dan Coats. My grandparents used to play bridge with Lee Hamilton, Frank and Judy O’Bannon, before they where elected to anything. My grandmother went from being a secretary at a local agriculture office to being the state director of agriculture. Indiana politics is in my blood and I know there is no way Hostettler beats Ellsworth. Nothing you tell me will make me think otherwise. I hope that wasn’t too descriptive but I really wanted to get my point across because anka is really getting on my nerves.
Ellsworth or Hill >>>>> Coats as a candidate. As long as the Democrats can get one of them to run, all this doom and gloom surrounding IN-Sen is unjustified.
There were about 5 posts before Anka put his or her original post here. That is over double what the weekly open thread was in the course of a couple of hours. I have to say to anka, bravo bravo!!! Love anka or hate anka you can’t help talking to him.
I think Rossi will not run, like Thompson or Pataki, but while that becomes definite I think they are races to watch.
Look to all the ratings is interesting. I agree about the ratings for senate races. I think Nevada can be going towards a Toss-Up and Iowa towards Leans R, but im not totally sure about the change.
About the ratings for governor I would not put Wyoming as Likely Republican while D Freudenthal decide if he will challenge the state term limits. Republicans will challenge when they need. D Freudenthal is still a popular incumbent what can run again. This is my bigger difference with SSP ratings. I think would be a Race To Watch. D Freudenthal is giving smart steps until now.
I think too, IL-Gov and MN-Gov races are more Leans D than ME-Gov. I would move this races to Leans D. And the last poll from Rasmussen about GA-Gov maybe enough for give to this race a Toss-Up. Barnes seems enough strong for win. He is now the democrat polling better in a purple or red state after M Beeve (I know not polls for D Freudenthal).
I think Rossi will not run, like Thompson or Pataki, but while that becomes definite I think they are races to watch.
Look to all the ratings is interesting. I agree about the ratings for senate races. I think Nevada can be going towards a Toss-Up and Iowa towards Leans R, but im not totally sure about the change.
About the ratings for governor I would not put Wyoming as Likely Republican while D Freudenthal decide if he will challenge the state term limits. Republicans will challenge when they need. D Freudenthal is still a popular incumbent what can run again. This is my bigger difference with SSP ratings. I think would be a Race To Watch. D Freudenthal is giving smart steps until now.
I think too, IL-Gov and MN-Gov races are more Leans D than ME-Gov. I would move this races to Leans D. And the last poll from Rasmussen about GA-Gov maybe enough for give to this race a Toss-Up. Barnes seems enough strong for win. He is now the democrat polling better in a purple or red state after M Beeve (I know not polls for D Freudenthal).
On the same day that Rossi told the Seattle Times “Never say never”, he told KING% and the Seattle PI “never”. In fact, it was only after Benton confirmed that Rossi would stay out of the Senate race that Benton jumped in. Washington voters won’t see Rossi on the ballot.
Strategists also know that Rasmussen polls in this state tend to weigh 3 to 5 points too favorablely Republican. My guess if a problem with the likely voter screen since this problem developed in Rasmussen polls only after WA went to vote by mail. Democratic turnout percentage bumped up with that change and has not dropped since. In 2009 elections onlly one county, Pierce, still had any in-person voting. By November even my home county will be entirely vote-by-mail.
Reichert would probably like to challenge Murray but Republicans don’t want him to vacate a House seat they couldn’t hold without him.
Given those ttwo factors, I rate my state Senate seat as safely Democratic.