Research 2000 for WCAX-TV (2/14-16, likely voters, no trend lines):
Deb Markowitz (D): 43
Brian Dubie (R): 41
Undecided: 16Doug Racine (D): 38
Brian Dubie (R): 43
Undecided: 19Peter Shumlin (D): 35
Brian Dubie (R): 45
Undecided: 20Matt Dunne (D): 36
Brian Dubie (R): 44
Undecided: 20Susan Bartlett (D): 30
Brian Dubie (R): 48
Undecided: 22
(MoE: ±5%)
On the surface, those are pretty encouraging numbers for Republican Brian Dubie, but bear in mind that a disproportionate amount of undecided voters in every one of the above match-ups come from the Democratic column. Dubie, the current Lt. Governor, is the strongest nominee that the GOP could cough up here, but there’s no doubt that he’s riding high on superior name recognition right now.
And, in case you need a scorecard:
Deb Markowitz: SoS (1999-Present)
Doug Racine: Lt. Governor (1997-2003), ’02 Gubernatorial nominee, state Senator (2007-Present)
Peter Shumlin: State Senator (1993-2003, 2007-Present), ’02 Lt-Gov nominee
Matt Dunne: State Representative (1993-1999), state Senator (2003-2007), ’06 Lt-Gov nominee
Susan Bartlett: State Senator (1993-Present)
(Hat-tip: Darth Jeff)
I think it’s a pretty bad law, but it’s worth knowing if it’s still on the books.
And thanks for my first hat-tip!
I’m curious if Markowitz is leading the primary in name rec and money since there aren’t primary numbers.
1. Thank you for FINALLY polling our gov race.
2. no primary poll? I hope it’s coming in the next few days, otherwise this is a horrible tease.
3. once again it shows that we vermonters like us some divided guvmint.
4. we do still have that law where if no candidate gets a majority it goes to the legs, but it’s NEVER used. the legs is afraid to pull the trigger and only a no shot like indy/prog Anthony Pollina or last shot like shumlin/racine would dare get elected like that. it was only used once, on a lt govt candidate in the 50’s or 60’s. he lost 2 years later.
5. the markowitz and racine numbers are not surprising as she’s a 12 year statewide incumbent and he’s a former lt govt, nor are bartletts as an outsider/nobody. dunne’s doing better than i thought and shumlin polls rather weak for someone who’s been on the state scene since the 90’s as minority leader then sen pro temp.
Dubie is massively, massively popular with the state’s moderate/conservative voters. You see about 3 or 4 Dubie bumper stickers for every Douglas sticker basically anywhere in the state that you go. Most of them won’t question his background or conservatism unless he massively messes up, which VT’s complicit media probably won’t report on.
Also, there are too damn many Dems in the primary this year, not one of whom could be bothered to run against Douglas when he was actually vulnerable or against Symington – who turned out to be one of the worst gubernatorial candidates in US history – in the primary. The good news is that the Leg finally got around to moving up the primary a couple of days ago, but it’s likely that Douglas will veto the bill, so the impact is still uncertain.
Typical for Vermont Democrats, they have a perfect shot at actually winning, and they’ll probably blow it because of the usual combination of spinelessness and ego politics. Sigh. The problem also is a lot of these undecided voters are probably waiting to see if Pollina or another Prog gets in again because they’re normally too pure to vote for a Democrat. And this is how Republicans keep winning in a state where Obama has a 65% approval rating. Sigh.
Also, Racine is done. He pulled a Coakley and took a vacation when he should’ve been out campaigning, and now his opponents have taken all of his oxygen. I was an early supporter of his, but now I think he should quit. Shumlin is an egomaniac who already lost the Lite Guv race in 2002, and nobody knows or cares who Bartlett is. Dunne is pretty cool and I’d love to see a guy from the next generation get in for a change, but I doubt it’ll happen in the state that has the largest percentage of voters over 50 in the country. Markowitz is a great SoS but I’ve always been a little skeptical of her gubernatorial campaign. I still think she’s the best shot against Dubie, though, at least for the moment.
Sorry…couldn’t resist the West Wing reference. Seriously though, I think we can pick this up. We could honestly pick up 3 governorships in New England (VT, CT, RI). With Hawaii, Arizona, Minnesota, and California in play, this could mitigate almost certain losses in OK, TN and KS and a number of other tough states (IA, PA, MI)
Note that against all of the candidates, Dubie can’t get out of the mid-teens among Dems; it’s the Independents which would potentially swing enough in his way to win this thing. His best # here is 48% – perhaps enough to outright score victory if the usual “VT Independent” and Green candidates swarm the ballot.