Quinnipiac (2/22-28, registered voters, 12/8-14 in parentheses):
Arlen Specter (D-inc): 49 (44)
Pat Toomey (R): 42 (44)
Undecided: 8 (11)Joe Sestak (D): 36 (35)
Pat Toomey (R): 39 (40)
Undecided: 24 (22)
(MoE: ±2.6%)Arlen Specter (D-inc): 53 (53)
Joe Sestak (D): 29 (30)
Undecided: 14 (15)
(MoE: ±3.9%)
This ought to shake up some of that growing pessimism about the Pennsylvania Senate race — although most of that pessimism seems to come from the fact that only Rasmussen and Franklin & Marshall have been polling this race reliably for the last few months. (And recall that Franklin & Marshall offers both LV and RV models, where Toomey wins the LV matchup and Specter the RV matchup, meaning that, well, Rasmussen and Quinnipiac — which is polling registered voters right now — may both be right.)
The improvement in the matchup between Arlen Specter and Pat Toomey is all the more interesting because Specter and Joe Sestak have been going hammer and tongs at each other while Toomey is out of the fray. In fact, Toomey’s favorables indicate how unbesmirched he really is: he’s at 26/8, with a whopping 65% “haven’t heard enough” (note to Specter or DSCC or somebody: start defining Toomey as Club for Growth wingnut ASAP). Sestak is in a similar boat, with favorables of 18/6, while pretty much everyone has already decided about Specter, who has an approval of 48/45, which has changed very little since December’s 47/45. I hate to start prematurely acting like the Democrats have weathered the worst of the storm and the momentum going into November has changed direction, but with nothing else having significantly changed about this race in the last few months, it seems like changes in the national environment have to be at least partially responsible here for the changed toplines. (Discussion underway in conspiracy‘s diary too.)
RaceTracker Wiki: PA-Sen
They should be treated more seriously than some others
like RAS.They have good track record.While not always
right In final perchange.Spector won back In 92 when Clinton was elected,and In 2004 when Kerry carried PA.
If I lived In PA I would not vote for him In Primary but
would In General Election.
The Conservative MSM Is going overboard with all the doom
and gloom and polls.MA should remind people races can change.Remember at one time Coakley has a huge lead.
I sure don’t remember back In 2006 the Media saying how
much trouble Republicans were in.
And at one time if you said democrats would pick up 6 seats
In the senate In 2006,and 8 seats In 2008 people would say
you were crazy.
Even when Quinnipiac has bad news for our side I still put my faith In them than RAS.
Wouldn’t it be amazing if we actually made some gains in 2010? I think the fact that Indiana is actually competitive shows that things might not be so bad come November.
..particularly in an off year election when turnout almost always declines. Unfortunately Democrats historically have done better with “everyone” than “registered voters” and better with “registered voters” than “likely voters.” Now some of the deviations in polling (particularly with Rasmussen) have been over what the “likely voter” model will be. Unfortunately it is unlikely to reflect the opinions of “registered voters.”
I think that Dems may have actually been helped by the Scott Brown win in that it made some people realize the Republicans could take it all in November, and what the consequences might be. Also, this Bunning thing can’t be helping.
That said, I have a feeling Dems may not be out of the woods yet.
The weightings on likely voters in various polls has been bizarre to say the least, with those 1% assumptions, and Ras polling everybody in the world without a cellphone.
Are we expected to believe that the Pennsylvania general electorate in 2010 is more conservative than just the Republican primary voters in 2004?