Research 2000 for Daily Kos (3/22-24, likely voters, 2/16-18, 2009 in parentheses):
Patty Murray (D): 51 (53)
Dave Reichert (R): 43 (40)
Undecided: 6 (7)Patty Murray (D): 52
Dino Rossi (R): 41
Undecided: 7Patty Murray (D): 54
Don Benton (R): 35
Undecided: 11Patty Murray (D): 55
Paul Akers (R): 28
Undecided: 17
(MoE: ±4.0%)
There’s been emerging conventional wisdom in the last couple months that Dino Rossi poses a threat to Patty Murray in the Washington Senate race, if he gets in. That seems to have entirely two pillars of support holding that up, though: a couple polls from Rasmussen, and another one from Portland-based Republican internal pollster Moore Insight. Research 2000 has a rather different take: Murray has an 11-point lead on Rossi, who, with a 47/47 favorable (thanks to the heavy exposure of losing two contentious gubernatorial races), really doesn’t have much more room for growth.
Rep. Dave Reichert (who’s generally well-liked and isn’t covered in two-time loser stank) is probably the GOP’s best bet in Washington, and even he comes up short against Murray — in fact, thanks to one-year-old trendlines, we can see there’s been only a small amount of erosion for Murray, either in the matchup against Reichert or in her favorables (52/41 now, 55/40 then), despite all the craziness of the last year. Murray also easily takes care of two of her actually announced GOP opponents, state Sen. Don Benton and businessman Paul Akers (the only candidate to have advertised so far).
RaceTracker: WA-Sen
I’d put her in the same territory as Feingold.
Reichert outrunning Rossi?
this race? He’s not mentioned on SSP’s Open Seat Watch from a couple days ago: 2010 House Open Seat Watch (3/23/10)
Opening up the WA-08 seat sure would be sweet.
I wouldn’t put R2K in the same category as Rasmussen in that we’ve seen fewer outlier polls from them than Rasmussen. Course we have seen a pro-Democratic tilt from them. Which is why I’ll want to see more polling in this race from other firms.
Still it’s better than what I was expecting. This has always been the race I’ve been waiting for a shoe to drop in. And I’m relieved I haven’t seen it drop yet.
because he has a lot of dirty laundry in business dealings that are going to get fully revealed in this race and badly damage him.
His real estate dealings have never had legal scurtiny although one sometime partner entered a no contest plea agreement for bilking investors. That settlement was reached 3 weeks after the 08 election. You can bet that would be back to bite Rossi if he filed again.
Reichert hasn’t expressed any interest in challenging Murray. In fact, he is teaming with Murray on some environmental legislation.
Reichert is currently in a DC hospital with a brain bleed. He spoke to some law enforcement friends last fall about retiring. Now there will probably be more questions about whether health issues may push him into retirement.