Public Policy Polling (3/27-28, Missouri voters, 11/13-15 in parens):
Robin Carnahan (D): 41 (43)
Roy Blunt (R): 45 (42)
Undecided: 13 (15)Robin Carnahan (D): 42 (42)
Chuck Purgason (R): 38 (35)
Undecided: 19 (23)
(MoE: ±3.6%)
This poll’s a pretty good sign of the times: Despite Blunt’s unpopularity (he sports a 25-41 favorable rating, compared to Carnahan’s 38-43 rating), he now has a clear edge in this race after trailing Carnahan by low-single digits throughout most of 2009.
Tom Jensen paints some possible routes to a Carnahan victory:
[…] Beyond that 55% of voters trust Jefferson City politicians most to deal with Missouri’s problems compared to only 13% who pick Washington DC. Drawing a contrast between herself as someone who’s worked hard in the state and Blunt as a Washington insider has the potential to pay dividends for Carnahan further down the road.
There are two ways to see Carnahan coming out on top in this race. If Obama’s approval gets even just to the point where the state is equally divided in its feelings about him Carnahan will probably come out on top because of her greater personal popularity and the anti-Washington sentiments of the electorate right now. If Obama’s numbers don’t get any better Carnahan’s going to have to try to shift the election from a referendum on the President to a referendum on Roy Blunt and his record in Washington.
RaceTracker Wiki: MO-Sen
For some reason that seems a lot less scary.
realize it’s Roy Blunt. ROY BLUNT! Once they do, it should be a pick up for Team Blue.
n/t
Unless things gets worse. And I think they are likely to get considerably better.
Campaign for next seven months, wait for last two weeks of campaign, see who wins by a point and a half — unless someone does something really stupid in the meantime.
Carnahan is within the margin of error, has a double digit lead in favorables, is being outraised significantly, and this is all before Roy Blunt votes against financial regulation and around 40K troops come home from Iraq by end of summer.
… well, at least the approval/disapproval. 43/52 is no different from most of the other swing states, and I was worried that MO – which has swung somewhat red over the past decade – was going to show numbers more like Tennessee or Arkansas.
Granted, Carnahan’s going to have a difficult time in this climate. Really, what she needs – and what all the Dems need – is job growth. My sense is that among more low-info voters and independents, it isn’t just Obama’s approvals that the economy is dragging down – it’s health care too. People are upset about the economy, and because of that they’re pissed at Obama and hence more skeptical of what he proposes. And because the economy is poor they think (wrongly) that we need to stop spending so much, so the trillion dollar figure for HCR is freaking people out.
MO is different than TN because KC and STL are much larger cities/metros than Memphis/Nashville and are quite a bit more urban/diverse/liberal. The rural areas are going red fast, the suburbs are purple, but the cities, inner-ring suburbs, and college towns are hard blue.
MO will never move like AR, because AR has no urban bases like STL or KC, Little Rock is the size of a Kansas City suburb like Independence or Overland Park.