Mason-Dixon for the Las Vegas Review-Journal (4/5-7, likely voters, 2/22-24 in parens):
Harry Reid (D-inc): 39 (40)
Danny Tarkanian (R): 39 (51)
Scott Ashjian (T): 11 (NA)
Undecided: 11 (9)Harry Reid (D-inc): 38 (39)
Sue Lowden (R): 46 (52)
Scott Ashjian (T): 5 (NA)
Undecided: 11 (9)
(MoE: ±4%)
Sue Lowden (R): 45 (47)
Danny Tarkanian (R): 27 (29)
Sharron Angle (R): 5 (8)
Chad Christensen (R): 4 (NA)
John Chachas (R): 3 (1)
Undecided: 16 (15)
(MoE: ±6%)
Mason-Dixon is doing a few things differently from their last batch of polling: maybe most importantly, they’ve started to do a three-way including Jon Scott Ashjian (here listed simply as “Scott”), which would explain Harry Reid’s slightly improved position. (Last time, they tested head-to-heads against the top 3 Republicans — Sharron Angle seems to have faded from relevance since their last poll — and then did a test of Reid, Generic R, and Generic Teabagger.)
I’m not sure polling Ashjian is that wise, as he may be in jail rather than campaigning come November (but there’s always the possibility that if Ashjian falls, another equally random teabagger quickly takes his place. Interestingly, Ashjian’s presence makes a big difference in the Danny Tarkanian matchup (most likely because Tarkanian isn’t inspiring much loyalty, as seen with his declining primary numbers… although, who knows, maybe there’s a kernel of truth to that Armenian-American vote-splitting charge) but much less impact on the Sue Lowden matchup.
Here are the gubernatorial numbers:
Jim Gibbons (R-inc): 25 (30)
Brian Sandoval (R): 39 (37)
Michael Montadon (R): 7 (9)
Undecided: 29 (24)
(MoE: ±6%)
Rory Reid (D): 35 (29)
Brian Sandoval (R): 50 (51)
Undecided: 15 (20)Rory Reid (D): 42 (42)
Jim Gibbons (R-inc): 40 (38)
Undecided: 18 (20)
(MoE: ±4%)
Not much change here. Rory Reid is still holding his own against thoroughly damaged GOP incumbent Jim Gibbons, but the chances of Gibbons surviving his primary against Brian Sandoval seem to be getting even slimmer.
Finally, as if that weren’t enough to worry about, we’ve got a new problem brewing in NV-03 (trendlines from 11/30-12/2-2009):
Dina Titus (D-inc): 44 (40)
Joe Heck (R): 49 (40)
Undecided: 7 (20)
(MoE: ±6%)
An earlier LVRJ poll had Titus tied with former state Sen. Joe Heck, and now Heck has pulled 5 points ahead, similar to his own internal released a few weeks ago. There are a couple things at work here: for starters, Titus can’t be helped by the reverse coattails coming downticket from father and son Reid. That’s compounded by Las Vegas’s particularly bad economy, crushed by the foreclosure crisis and the drop in construction, and compounded even further, as the LVRJ points out, by $1.3 million in spending by outside interests trying to sink Titus over her pro-HCR vote. Heck is fairly moderate as far as GOPers go, coming complete with his own charges of flip-flopping regarding raising or not raising taxes… hmmm, maybe Nevada’s nascent Tea Party should get involved in some RINO-hunting here too (hint hint)?
When does the vaporization start Harry?
as the state will be gaining a district in reapportionment, and control of redistricting will be split between a Republican Governor and Democratic legislature, the next map will almost assuredly be a 2-2 map, so whichever party doesn’t win NV-03 this year will get NV-04 in 2012.
If polls right before the election show Reid with a small lead over Lowden, and Ashjian with 10+% then enough Ashjian voters will switch to Lowden to put Lowden over the top. This is what happened in NJ-Gov. The Daggett voters weren’t teabaggers but they didn’t want to help Corzine win.
but we’re screwed in Nevada. The Reids are hugely unpopular, and having them both on the ticket just brings the other down even further. Nevada is one of the states hardest hit by the economy, in particular the city of Las Vegas, which is going to eat away at what is usually a reliable democratic vote in Clark County. That’s not just a problem for the Reids but it’s a killer for Dina Titus.
I think the Reids are screwed, and that Titus is toast. In fact, call me crazy, but I could see Shelley Berkley starting to sweat a bit before things are all said and done. Team Blue is going to fare much worse than average all across the board here, mostly because of the economy.
Read this article, folks. Here’s an excerpt:
J Heck lose in 2008 his state senate seat as incumbent against Shirley Breeden and now can win a house seat as challenger against Dina Titus? Im so skeptic. J Heck is not a strong challenger and NV-03 is a D+2 district.