Public Policy Polling (5/1-2, likely voters, 12/18-21/2009 in parens):
Rand Paul (R): 46 (44)
Trey Grayson (R): 28 (25)
Undecided: 21 (32)
Other: 4
(MoE: ±5.1%)Jack Conway (D): 27 (37)
Dan Mongiardo (D): 36 (33)
Undecided: 27 (30)
Other: 10
(MoE: ±4.6%)
PPP finds Paul ahead by a mile in the Republican primary — quite the contrast with Grayson’s internal polling which purports to show a tied race. Still, Grayson’s camp isn’t going down without a fight — they just unfurled an endorsement (and accompanying ad) from Mitch McConnell. (Though the only surprising thing about that is the fact that McConnell was officially neutral for so long.)
On the Democratic side, you have to wonder if Conway has a fighting chance. In his favor, a greater share of primary voters consider Conway to be a blank slate: 51% have no opinion of him, while 36% react the same way to Mongiardo. Perhaps Conway can close the gap by flooding the zone with his superior cash reserves in the final two weeks of the race, but it’ll be tough.
I have to say I had assumed Conway would not only be more competitive, but would be the clear favorite. Didn’t he have much of the Dem establishment behind him? What happened here?
At this point that’s how I see it. We should start talking about the general election, because at this point it looks like Paul can hang onto this seat, but there’s months down the road for Mongiardo to make up lost ground and to recapture some of the support he rankled up in 2004.
I think I will wait to judge whether Conway is sinking too bad considering the last PPP poll was in December. I’d like to see some more polling on this race as the primary comes to a close.
I am surprised also that Conway would not have received a bit of a bump in the polls considering one of his horses was featured in the Kentucky Derby.
I really hope Conway wins this one. He’s the exact profile of my kind of Democrat. I spotted him as an up and comer when he won the AG race in 2007 (little did I know he ran for previous office) and I really would like to see him be our nominee for this race.
how it’s not obvious to Democrats in KY that Conway is a stronger candidate than Mongiardo.
The problem here is the same problem Conway has been having, in that despite their ideological differences Mongiardo still has a narrow lead with liberals.
Until Conway gets voters thinking that this is more than a choice between one conservative Bluegrass Democrat and another, he’s not getting anywhere.
the point remains the same. If Daniel Mongiardo wins the democratic primary, this race is OVER. Solid R. The liberal/progressive base in the state cannot stand Mongiardo, and they’ll sit out the general, allowing Paul an easy victory. I understand that Kentucky is a conservative, red state, and that at times you have to be a bit of a maverick in order to get elected as a democrat there. However, by opposing every piece of major democratic legislation that comes down the pike, and acting like a horse’s ass in general throughout the campaign is no way to endear yourself to your base, or perhaps more importantly, independents.
Daniel Mongiardo is unelectable. The general election polls always bear that out. If I were the DSCC, I’d be pushing all in behind Conway right now, and then if Mongiardo won I’d pull out of KY entirely, focusing resources on more important states, like Ohio, Missouri, Florida, Pennsylvania, Indiana, Illinois, etc.
I bet all that publicity would have been enough to make voters warm and fuzzy about him.
First, this poll’s bottom line numbers seem unusual… JC was gaining momentum as he became more known, then suddenly, backwards? I haven’t looked at the crosstabs, but I would suspect timing was an issue. This poll was taken MAY 1st. What else happened May 1st? The KY Derby. If you don’t know, that is a holiday in Louisville, KY and for most Louisvillians worldwide. The day after is used for recovery. Since JC’s base is Louisville liberals, I would suspect most of them didn’t answer the phone on Sat.
Now, I, too am surprised Jack hasn’t pulled away by now. DM is a terrible candidate who only surged to near victory based on the “original Macaca moment” where Bunning said he looked like Sadaam’s son. Still, he wasn’t able to finish the deal.
There may be some anti-Louisville bias going on in this race also, since the state pretty much hates all things Louisville (except for the cash we generate) and Jack is very Louisville.
Finally, conservative DINOs are a large voting block. Many ALWAYS vote GOP in Fed. elections. The reason they are registered Dems has to do with tradition and our farked up constitution.
I’m not sure a national outfit like PPP would even think to consider a local holiday like Derby. I don’t blame them, just see reason their poll might be off.