Ward Research (PDF) for the Honolulu Advertiser & Hawaii News Now (4/23-28, likely voters, no tendlines)
Neil Abercrombie (D): 49
Duke Aiona (R): 35
Undecided: 16Mufi Hannemann (D): 48
Duke Aiona (R): 35
Undecided: 17
(MoE: ±4.0%)
Neil Abercrombie (D): 36
Mufi Hannemann (D): 32
I’m Voting in the GOP Primary: 11
Undecided: 21
(MoE: ±4.0%)
This is an extremely unusual way to poll a primary. Hawaii has an open primary, but even so, likely voters in the general election are a different breed from likely primary voters. Abercrombie does better among Democrats while Hanneman is stronger among Republicans; if I had to guess, that bodes well for Abercrombie, because when push comes to shove, I think Republicans are probably less likely to bother showing up to vote in a Democratic primary than, well, Democrats are (even though there is no competitive GOP race).
Against Aiona, neither Dem holds on to members of his own party all that well – Abercrombie at 67-19 and Hannemann at 63-19, while Aiona retains Republicans in the mid-to-high 70s. The problem, though, is that there are a hell of a lot more Democrats than Republicans in Hawaii, which makes Aiona’s job especially hard, even though he wins independents 43-32 against both potential opponents. Democrats are also likely to have more money. Hawaii only requires fundraising reports every six months, so the last set of numbers are out of date. I’m willing to guess that Abercrombie’s stepped it up quite a bit since his resignation from the House, and Mufi is still probably cruising, too.
HI-Sen: For anyone still concerned that Gov. Linda Lingle (R) might challenge Sen. Dan Inouye this year (like me!), this poll shows her with just a 40-53 job approval – the lowest in her two terms as governor. Apparently she’s taken a major hit because of teacher furloughs. Still, I think Lingle could be a strong challenger to Dan Akaka in 2012.
Having Djou on the fall ballot would surely be helpful, presuming he claims victory in the special. The problem for Aiona, or really any Hawaii Republican (Lingle the exception), is that 35% is just about the ceiling for any average GOP-er. It takes oddball circumstances, like this upcoming House three-way, for a Republican to win in Hawaii. Aiona’s no better, no worse than Djou, but he’ll be running against only one Democrat in November. I think he could get upwards of 40-45% if Djou wins in the special.
Considering that favorite son Obama will be campaigning it just seems like Dems would have an easier year in 2012, especially in Hawaii.
Now here is a million dollar question….if you could be the governor of a state in which the opposing party rules would you be a Democrat or Republican? Methinks Republicans get the better states…California or Hawaii for example.
abercrombie better win that primary. Imagine if he caused this chaos and still lost the primary!
followed by the right nomination and a special election with a new strong democratic incumbent.
I think they are few democratic candidates what can defeat L Lingle:
E Shinseki (japanese-american)
J Waihee (native islander)
M Hirono (japanese-american)
Whitout the right nomination, the first seat will be for L Lingle.
Im not sure about D Akaka can win over L Lingle in 2012 with 88 years old, but I think L Lingle will not run against an incumbent.
I think E Case and C Hanabusa are out for senate. No mater if one win or not HI-01 seat this year. I think both are back.
She’s ended her career with an implosion in popularity. The fact that she now has to take a stand on civil unions (something she has desperately avoided doing so) will only further tarnish her image with one of two groups she needs to be viable…either she signs the bill, and destroys her standing amongst Republicans, or she vetoes it, and destroys her standing amongst independents and Democrats who were crucial to her elections.