Washington Post (5/3-6, likely voters):
Martin O’Malley (D-inc): 47
Bob Ehrlich (R): 47
(MoE: ±4%)
Sorry to sound indecisive in the title, but the first Washington Post poll of this year’s Maryland governor’s race reaches two different conclusions, depending on whether you want to look at likely voters or registered voters. The LV model shows a tie between Democratic incumbent Martin O’Malley and Republican ex-Gov. Bob Ehrlich in their rematch, a closer result than any other pollster (including Rasmussen) has seen.
If you prefer a registered voter model, though, O’Malley has a decently comfortable lead of 8 points, at 49-41, which is pretty consistent with most previous polls of this race. We’ve seen this before in a few polls of other races this year that have offered the choose-your-own-adventure approach (like Franklin & Marshall‘s PA-Sen polls), showing just how big the disparity is between in voter motivation between the two parties right now. November’s storyline is going to be shaped by how well Democrats do at getting currently “unlikely” voters to turn out.
I’m going to trust the Washington Post (and Baltimore Sun) polls more than any other because of the proximity to the region.
Both O’Malley and Ehrlich have similar approval ratings (although Ehrlich’s disapproval rating is less) and similar to Republicans in other parts of the country, Ehrlich is winning independents in Maryland by a 2-1 margin.
The thing is however is that Maryland is a heavily Democratic state, and that Democrats in Maryland are more loyal than in Massachusetts for example (there are very few white blue collar Democrats in Maryland, the ones that went for Brown in the Senate special). I think that in the end O’Malley will win reelection, but by approxmietly 5% or so. For O’Malley to lose he would have to be eiether unpopular (like Corzine) or Ehrlich would have to be very popular (like Terry Brandstad in the Iowa gubernetorial) to overcome the general Democratic lean of the state. I mean what reason does Ehrlich have to kick O’Malley out? They are both about the same in popularity but O’Malley is the Democrat in a strongly Democratic state. I know that Ehrlich is making the sales and income tax increases a part of his campaign, but Marylanders are not as rabidly anti-tax as other people around the country and our state does have a deficit like so many others..
Competitive elections are not the norm in my state of Maryland so I’m not suprised that many Dem leaning voters are not as likely to vote as the obviously energized Republian voters in Maryland. But I do think it will become better for O’Malley as the election date nears and he starts getting voters attention. But as of know expect to see toss-up numbers for this race although more like a Lean Democratic in reality.
Dem – 47%
GOP – 30%
Indie – 23%
Ehrlich – 17/95/52 = 49%
O’Malley – 83/5/48 = 51%
By comparison, the ’06 results were…
Dem – 50%
GOP – 31%
Indie – 19%
Ehrlich – 15/93/49 = 47%
O’Malley – 95/7/47 = 53%
O’Malley should win. Probably by double digits. As others have pointed out, the state is strongly Democratic, and O’Malley doesn’t suck like Corzine.