KY-Sen: Paul Leads Big, Conway Down by Only 1 Point

SurveyUSA for the Louisville Courier-Journal/WHAS11 (5/9-11, likely voters, 4/9-11 in parens):

Rand Paul (R): 49 (45)

Trey Grayson (R): 33 (30)

Others: 13 (6)

Undecided: 11 (19)

(MoE: 4.8%)

Dan Mongiardo (D): 38 (35)

Jack Conway (D): 37 (32)

Others: 13 (11)

Undecided: 12 (21)

(MoE: 3.9%)

Full crosstabs for the Democratic results are available here, and Republican innards are here.

Pretty bleak numbers for Trey Grayson, who was last seen trailing Rand Paul by 12 points in R2K’s latest survey of this race. In fact, it’s hard to remember the last non-internal poll that had Grayson in any sort of favorable position. (His campaign released a poll earlier this month showing the race tied, but that was drowned out by PPP showing Paul with a commanding lead the next day.) Well, at least Grayson will have more time to play with his toys pretty soon…

Meanwhile, on the Democratic ballot, Conway appears to be making something of a late surge. This should be a pretty fun race to watch on Tuesday.

10 thoughts on “KY-Sen: Paul Leads Big, Conway Down by Only 1 Point”

  2. Conservatives are 37-32 Mongiardo, a big change from 34-20 Conway in SurveyUSA’s last poll.

    Moderates are 44-42 Mongiardo.  Last time he led 40-32.

    Liberals are 42-35 Conway.  Last time they were 42-37 Mongiardo.  

    It appears that as more voters pay attention they are aligning more with the candidate who fits them ideologically.  

  3. Not really sure I trust this poll.  As was previosuly pointed out, it seems like voters have in large part changed their minds (Cons for Mongiardo and Libs for COnway) or they’ve changed how they identify themselves, both of which seem weird at this point in time.  

    If I trusted just the toplines, it seems like late deciders are favoring Conway.  But I just don’t really think I trust the change from other polling.  

  4. read ANY surveyusa poll and the cross tabs are completely off base.  yet they’re usually very accurate.  there are polls with Brownback getting 35-60 percent of Hispanics, the youth vote, 20-40% of AA yet only having 53 approval.  when it comes to surveyusa, it’s best to ignore the cross tabs and focus on the approval and end results.

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