Public Policy Polling (5/15-16, likely voters, 4/17-18 in parens):
Mark Critz (D): 47 (41)
Tim Burns (R): 48 (44)
Undecided: 6 (15)
(MoE: ±3.4%)
More, from Jensen:
If Burns does pull out the victory on Tuesday night it will be more because of a continuing gap in interest between Democratic and Republican voters in the off year election than anything else. Critz is actually winning over more McCain voters (14%) than Burns is Obama voters (12%). This race is not an example of people who voted for Obama who are now unhappy with him and voting Republican. But those planning to vote on Tuesday report having voted for John McCain by 5 points in 2008, compared to his actual 1 point victory in the district. And among voters who say they’re ‘very excited’ to vote in this election, Burns has a 60-38 lead.
In contrast, two other recent polls have given Critz a slight lead. It looks like we’re heading for a photo finish here, sports fans.
Bonus finding: Sestak leads Specter by 44-35 among Democratic primary voters in the 12th District.
Sestak got an F from the NRA ad in Western Pennsylvania and Spector’s vote against the assault weapons ban. I hope Joe Sestak once and for all retires Arlen Specter on Tuesday.
that W. PA voters think Sestak is more conservative than Specter. That’s interesting–and good for Sestak.
I expect that votes in the Philly orbit have a different impression.
As for the special election–who knows. It’s a swing district now.
in Western PA over the weekend.
Toomey beat Specter in this district by roughly 15% in the ’04 primary. Though, to be fair, Specter did beat Hoffel in the high single-digits in the ’04 general. It’s hardly Specter Country, though.
if it stays close in spite of the enthusiasm gap, we’re cookin in the rust belt this year.
I can hear the media playing this up as Democrats gaining ground if we are able to win an open McCain seat in 2010. I hope Democratic enthusiasm for the Senate primary is enough to bring up the interest gap that PPP projects.
Late deciders are moving to Critz though the numbers are small. Then again it is a very tight race. Wouldn’t be surprised to see it decided within the hundreds.
Are there any colleges in the district? I’m wondering if since most students would be home for the summer, if that could be negatively impacting Critz w/r/t more McCain voters showing up…maybe some Obama voters in the district are home for the summer and didnt care enough to do an absentee.
I know back in college, I would vote in PA instead of NY since PA was a swing state and NY was a given Dem state. I wonder if that could be the case in this election too.