Research 2000 for Daily Kos (5/17-19, likely voters, 3/8-10 in parentheses):
Meg Whitman (R): 46 (52)
Steve Poizner (R): 36 (19)
Undecided: 18 (29)
(MoE: ±5.0%)Jerry Brown (D): 46 (45)
Meg Whitman (R): 42 (41)
Undecided: 12 (14)Jerry Brown (D): 47 (48)
Steve Poizner (R): 37 (33)
Undecided: 16 (19)
(MoE: ±4.0%)
Tom Campbell (R): 37 (33)
Carly Fiorina (R): 22 (24)
Chuck DeVore (R): 14 (7)
Undecided: 27 (36)
(MoE: ±5.0%)Barbara Boxer (D): 47 (47)
Tom Campbell (R): 40 (43)
Undecided: 13 (10)Barbara Boxer (D): 48 (49)
Carly Fiorina (R): 39 (40)
Undecided: 13 (11)Barbara Boxer (D): 47 (49)
Chuck DeVore (R): 38 (39)
Undecided: 13 (12)
(MoE: ±4.0%)
Research 2000’s new poll of California has, on the balance, good news for the Democrats. While Jerry Brown and Barbara Boxer aren’t putting up dominant numbers, they’re winning by decent margins (as opposed to the last Field Poll, which had them losing). Also good news: Steve Poizner is gaining on Meg Whitman in the GOP gubernatorial primary, as many other polls have shown; he may not get over the top by June 8, but will certainly leave her bloodied and much poorer. In the Senate primary, Tom Campbell, the toughest GOPer for Boxer to face, is putting a little distance between himself and Carly Fiorina (although the big gainer seems to be Tea Party fave Chuck DeVore, still back in third place).
Public Policy Institute of California (pdf) (5/9-16, likely voters, 3/9-16 (pdf) in parentheses):
Meg Whitman (R): 38 (61)
Steve Poizner (R): 29 (11)
Undecided: 31 (25)
(MoE: ±5.0%)Jerry Brown (D): 42 (39)
Meg Whitman (R): 37 (44)
Undecided: 21 (17)Jerry Brown (D): 45 (46)
Steve Poizner (R): 32 (31)
Undecided: 23 (23)
(MoE: ±3.0%)
Carly Fiorina (R): 25 (24)
Tom Campbell (R): 23 (23)
Chuck DeVore (R): 16 (8)
Undecided: 36 (44)
(MoE: ±5.0%)Barbara Boxer (D): 46 (43)
Tom Campbell (R): 40 (44)
Undecided: 14 (13)Barbara Boxer (D): 48 (44)
Carly Fiorina (R): 39 (43)
Undecided: 13 (13)Barbara Boxer (D): 50 (46)
Chuck DeVore (R): 39 (40)
Undecided: 11 (14)
(MoE: ±3.0%)
PPIC was one of a number of pollsters (like Field) showing Jerry Brown momentarily falling behind Meg Whitman a few months ago, when she was dominating the airwaves, which may even have rubbed off on Barbara Boxer; however, they’ve fallen back to giving the edge to Brown (which probably has more to do with Poizner nuking Whitman than anything Brown is doing, which is, as is his way, very little) and to Boxer. Check out the trendlines on the GOP gubernatorial primary here: they also have Poizner within about 10, down from a margin of about 80 million two months ago.
The attention-grabbing number here is in the GOP Senate primary, as they’re pretty much the only pollster to give an edge to Carly Fiorina (who I think most Dems would prefer to see prevail, her self-funding capacity notwithstanding) instead of Tom Campbell.
I have been interested in California’s prop 14 which would switch California to a top 2 primary system (which I like). Looks like it is posed to pass.
Yes 56%
No 27%
Don’t Know 17%
His campaign follows Taoist principles; reaction without abstraction 😀
He seems to show you can meditate for eight months and get outspent by a margin of 80 million to one and still keep a four point lead, lol.
At first I thought what he was doing was foolish, but the truly foolish thing was to try to compete fianically with a bunch of multi-millionaires. Still going to be tough but I’m not as worried about the CA-GOV race as I was months ago.
On the Senate race, the good thing is that Barbara Boxer was never going to take this race for granted. Tom Campbell is easily the strongest candidate but his major problem is money. I’m not particularity sure the Senate Republicans would be willing to help him. I mean Fiona is worse fit for the state ideologically but at least she has money.
PPP would have a new poll for California the next week. I hope the good results continue.
Working well I think the democratic party can make Vermont, Colorado, Maine, California, Illinois, Minnesota and Massachusetts become not battleground states for November elections.
I worry more about Wisconsin. The gubernatorial race can be in risk.
If the things go well, the battleground states should be Ohio, Missouri, Florida, New Hampshire, Arkansas, Arizona, Georgia, Kentucky, North Carolina, Texas, Indiana, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Nevada and Delaware.
Boxer is recovering, as is Brown.
It’ll be a hoot if Brown is Governor again. I was a little kid his last go around. His life is really unprecedented in giving him 2 entirely separate political careers.
The metastory that I like in this is the reinforcement by yet more data points that Democrats are recovering. It’s a clear trend now. I just hope nothing happens the next few months to sabotage our comeback.