HI-01 Results Thread

1:35am: Populista makes a very good point about this whole “Hawaii loves its incumbents” meme: Hawaii’s only ever had 11 federal officeholders total before tonight – and virtually none ever faced a competitive general election.

12:39am: Here’s another observation, for what it’s worth. George W. Bush’s percentage in this district in 2004: 47%. Charles Djou’s percentage tonight: 40%.

12:32am: Good as they were in PA-12, Hanabusa’s 2nd place tonight shows that the DCCC needs to be careful about treating its own polling as the word of god.

12:29am: Just an observation: Djou’s winning percentage (40%) is the lowest of any sitting House member. The next-lowest: Jean Schmidt (45%) and Michele Bachmann (46%). Good company!

12:19am: So, in terms of the raw vote, Djou has 67,274 to Hanabusa’s 52,445. Ed Case, the candidate the DCCC thought was the more electable choice, is lagging in third with 47,012 votes.

12:17am: The Associated Press calls it for Charles Djou!

12:12am: Uh, okay, that was fast. 96% of the vote is in, and Republican Charles Djou has won 40% of the vote. Hanabusa has 31%, and Ed Case has 28%.

Voting will officially end in an hour for Hawaii’s special election to replace Neil Abercrombie in the House. We’ll be using this thread to follow the results as they come in.

RESULTS: Associated Press | Office of Elections | Honolulu Advertiser

232 thoughts on “HI-01 Results Thread”

  1. Why must Hawaii be so far behind. I got up at 4:30 this morning and had 4.5 hours of sleep last night! I fell asleep Tuesday night before results were finished, NOT doing same tonight! Damn, and I thought California elections were annoyingly late.  

  2. by over three percentage points.

    Imagine what would have happened had the DCCC tried to force CASE out instead of Hanabusa.

  3. how horribly wrong do you think the “we’ll just win in November” predictions are?

    1) Hawaiians are very pro-incumbent

    2) unless one of the two Dems who caused this back down from a primary, then they’ll have this happen again in September, and the supporters of the loser will bolt

    3) no incumbent has ever lost a federal election in Hawaii

    Djou just got handed a seat until he’s dumb enough to lose a Senate race. Good work Hawaii.

    Try passing IRV, or some form of a runoff so that under 40% for Reps doesn’t beat 60% for Democrats because of a split.

  4. That was like a world record.  If they pre-count the ballots, it is hard for me to believe the campaigns don’t already know.

  5. There will still be at least a few more ballots to go. At least ballots that are dropped off have to be opened — two envelopes per ballot — before they can be counted.

    For some reason, the OR state sites report 100% of 100% early on in the evening as well.  

  6. For siding with the 3rd place loser. I wonder how many people switched their votes thinking Hanabusa had no chance, as well.

  7. This was so late at night that we don’t have to watch MSM fatmouths talk about how anti-Obama Hawaii has become.

  8. If Obama or perhaps Biden campaign for the Democratic candidate in November, I think they can overcome any incumbency factor in Hawaii. And this is an exceptional circumstance anyway, it’s not clear if Hawaiians will view Djou as an incumbent quite yet.

  9. Guess we’ll just have to begin the countdown to the finale of a certain TV series that may not be mentioned here! Less than 20 hours to go!

  10. We can only hope. And Djou has just five months to try and build up his incumbency. I don’t see him hanging on despite Hawaii’s pro-incumbent history.  

  11. but:

    1. They will have a very late primary (1,5 month before General) and Case will run – he is a political animal and percentage difference with Hanabusa is small enough

    2. A lot will depend on Djou record in House – if he will compile a very moderate (Linda Lingle-style) record – he may survive. Otherwise – no chance.

  12. Hanabusa had most of the infrastructure, the money, and the backing of Dan Inouye and Dan Akaka. Inouye continued to support her after the DCCC intervened and he was right. The DCCC blew this one.

  13. I had Hanabusa scoring over 30% of the vote and Case in the 20s.  Actually, I had Hanabusa netting 2 or 3 more % than she got.  The pollsters always underrate the non-white voters in Hawaii, which clearly broke hugely for Hanabusa in this election.  

    The DCCC should be collectively hung for their humongous failure here.  They should’ve gone all out to push Case out.  It’s Case’s selfishness and Abercrombie’s bad planning that cost us this seat.  If Case hadn’t gotten his nose where it didn’t belong, Hanabusa would be taking her rightful place in the House right now.  Oh well, I guess it’ll just have to take 6 more months, because there’s no chance in hell Case beats Hanabusa in the democratic primary.

  14. With Democrats getting close to 60% of the vote tonight, a very popular Democratic senator running for re-election and a popular Democrat running for Governor in think the Dems are at least 2-1 favorites to take this seat back in November. It ranks only behind LA-02 and DE-AL as far as pickup targets go.

  15. That was fast! I left for a little bit and all of this happened. No suspense at least. I’m glad to see Case in third. Ughh the MSM is going to have a heyday.      

  16. is based on an above average HI vote for Presidential incumbents relative to the rest of the country. That’s all.

  17. slower (but not too slow) next time.  on another note, do you remember that episode of lost, where snape killed aslan to prevent darth vader from finding obama’s birth certificate in the dark tower?

  18. Sadly this hurts the progressives in the House as a more progressive seat elects a Republican while a conservaDem seat stays with the Democrats.  Now the caucus is slightly more reactionary (my term for people like Critz) and the Republican caucus has another moderate.

  19. He said:

    For what it’s worth, if anyone underpolls like that, it’ll be Hanabusa. Japanese voters are notorious for refusing to answer polling (even to tell a pollster their demographic information, let alone voting preferences), but of course they will be the core of her vote.

    Turns out it was spot on.

  20. a couple of weeks ago, I thought her support would drop through the floor. Clearly, I was mistaken.


    I hope he enjoys leaving Hawaii in the middle of summer to travel thousands of miles to muggy Washington to be the junior member of the minority party!

  22. that the Republican nominee in 2008 (running without party affiliation this time) only got 125 votes, for 0.1% (compared to over 38,000 in 2008). A true Some Dude.  

  23. And that the DCCC poll was a set up.  Now, it’s on to the primary where Hanabusa can polish off DINO Case.  And then to November when she’ll capture the seat.

  24. 12:39am: Here’s another observation, for what it’s worth. George W. Bush’s percentage in this district in 2004: 47%. Charles Djou’s percentage tonight: 40%.

    First of all, that was 6 years ago, and George Bush last night was nowhere to be found. Second, Djou’s margin doesn’t justify in the Democratic Party’s incompetence in the inability to settle the dispute between their TWO candidates. If they only had one, they might have won last night.  

  25. Deeds, Corzine, Coakley, Specter, and now Ed Case, finishing an anemic third here. It’s as though keeping Kirsten Gillibrand safe has been his only victory.

  26. Wow, those results came quickly. I think people that are saying Hawaii always reelects incumbents and the other side who is saying Djou is doomed to lose in November are both off. It will be hard for Djou to win, but if 2 things happen I think it will be a very close race.

    1.) Djou has to build some moderate credentials. I know he will only be in the House for 4 months, but there are votes he can take and bills he can co-sponsor to help burgeon his middle of the road image. If he votes for the financial regulatory bill, I think it is a sign he will be heading for a competitive November. Not to make one vote so important, but I think voting against that bill is the path to being the answer to a political trivia question instead of a full term congressman.

    2.) The Democrats need to have an ugly primary fight. If Case drops out and Hanabusa had the primary battle to herself, I think it will be very hard for Djou to be victorious in the general election. The Democratic Party is so large in this district that if they are united, there should be no way a Republican wins in the Fall.

    If both of the above happen, I think it will be a very competitive race in November. Otherwise, I think the Democratic candidate will likely win by a 5%+ margin.

  27. Ambivalent about this today? Though I’m sure it wouldn’t be the case if Critz hadn’t won Tuesday night!

  28. I assume it’s regular voting (not mail-in) in HI-01 in November. What does that mean for the makeup of the electorate? Does that help or hurt Djou / Ds?

    (I haven’t found any exit polls for the election, which might have helped answer the question)

  29. sept 18th – the latest of the year – am i right?

    which sucks as it may mean 3.5 more months of this crap between hanabusa and case.  nonetheless, i expect either will have a significant advantage over djou in nov and i can’t imagine case endorsing djou (case may be a more moderate dem but that doesn’t make him a republican).

    just because hanabusa won by a handful more votes doesn’t prove that she was a better candidate in a two-way. It was the DCCC’s calculation that Case, as a moderate who had locked horns with dems in the past, was in a better position to win head-to-head with an angry GOPer and a disproportionately angry electorate (as Critz did so well in PA).  

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