1:35am: Populista makes a very good point about this whole “Hawaii loves its incumbents” meme: Hawaii’s only ever had 11 federal officeholders total before tonight – and virtually none ever faced a competitive general election.
12:39am: Here’s another observation, for what it’s worth. George W. Bush’s percentage in this district in 2004: 47%. Charles Djou’s percentage tonight: 40%.
12:32am: Good as they were in PA-12, Hanabusa’s 2nd place tonight shows that the DCCC needs to be careful about treating its own polling as the word of god.
12:29am: Just an observation: Djou’s winning percentage (40%) is the lowest of any sitting House member. The next-lowest: Jean Schmidt (45%) and Michele Bachmann (46%). Good company!
12:19am: So, in terms of the raw vote, Djou has 67,274 to Hanabusa’s 52,445. Ed Case, the candidate the DCCC thought was the more electable choice, is lagging in third with 47,012 votes.
12:17am: The Associated Press calls it for Charles Djou!
12:12am: Uh, okay, that was fast. 96% of the vote is in, and Republican Charles Djou has won 40% of the vote. Hanabusa has 31%, and Ed Case has 28%.
Voting will officially end in an hour for Hawaii’s special election to replace Neil Abercrombie in the House. We’ll be using this thread to follow the results as they come in.