Since so much has recently happened in Indiana, I thought I’d give my impressions of where we’re at now. I certainly look forward to the input of the several other Hoosier members here, Democrat and Republican.
Now, take what I’m saying here with a grain of salt, in that a year ago I predicted a boring, “nothing to see here” 2010 political year in Indiana. Guess I kind-of missed the mark there, but in my defense, no one else saw: Evan Bayh’s retirement, Steve Buyer’s wife’s illness, or Mark Souder’s inability to keep it in his pants. So, where do I think we stand now?
Several Congressional districts will still be more-or less uncontested: IN-01 (despite Peter Visclosky being a bit shady), IN-04 (congrats to all-but-Congressman elect Rokita), IN-05 (Danny Burton is SO EFFIN’ LUCKY he got multiple challengers), IN-06 (as much as I dislike Mike Pence’s politics, I wish he was on our side, as he’s a damn good politician), and IN-07 (Andre has settled in nicely as my Congressman).
Now to a few Congressional races where we can say a bit more about:
Indiana 02 — Joe Donnelley is all but safe, but in this district, you have to keep an eye on it in a Republican year. It boggles my mind that the GOP hasn’t found a better candidate to go against him, last cycle or this one. Let’s just say this about his opponent — they don’t call her Wacky Jacky because she sells quality pre-owned vehicles at low, low prices! Just think of how far out there you must be to be called Wacky in Indiana!
Indiana 03 — This is on the radar screen, but barely. As we’ve talked about since the Souder fall from grace last week, Dr. Hayhurst is a great candidate, I think he’ll be willing to put some of his substantial money into the race like he did in 2006, there could be a bloody battle to be the GOP candidate — but the district is so solidly Republican, it’s tough even in a good year.
Indiana 08 and 09 — I would probably see both of these as toss-ups right now. Baron Hill has proven himself a tenacious campaigner in a tough district, but can he turn out the Bloomington vote in an off-year election? Trent Van Haaften is a good choice for our candidate in the 8th, but he’s not well known yet. The Republicans BARELY chose more “establishment” candidates instead of a couple of certified flippin’ loons, so we’re going to have to see how these two races play themselves out.
The Senate Race:
Don’t believe the Rasmussen cook-the-books polls on this one. I actually feel pretty good about an Ellsworth-Coats match-up. Coats stumbled to an underwhelming primary victory, and I have a feeling he very well may have lost to Marlin Stutzman if this thing had gone on a few weeks more. He’s 67 years old and looks every day of it, while Ellsworth is young, attractive, and much more engaging.
If this is a close race, the Ellsworth/Coats map might look very different than the Obama/McCain map of 2008. I expect Ellsworth to do much better than Obama in southern Indiana, especially in the district he represented. Where I’m not sure he’ll have as much appeal is in the cherry-red Indianapolis suburbs (where Obama getting in the upper 30s was essential to his statewide win). It might come down to whether a conservative Democrat from Evansville can motivate the Democratic base in Marion County and the Region.
One other note about Brad Ellsworth, and how conservative he is. Some people here have expressed concern about his social views. I largely share those concerns. He’s far from an ideal candidate. However, unlike many other social conservatives, I don’t think he’s going to use abortion or gay marriage to hold up other important things. He’s Roman Catholic (and to my knowledge, would be the first Catholic to win major statewide office in Indiana in a long time, perhaps ever) — and I think while his views are sincerely held, I don’t see him as using them to veto everything ala a fervent Protestant fundamentalist. And remember, he did vote for HCR.
One other thing that I haven’t followed closely enough to really comment on in detail — I think it is going to be difficult for us to hold the Indiana General Assembly this fall. It is 52-48 right now, and there have been a couple of Democratic retirements in marginal districts, plus the national climate — this gives the GOP more pick-up opportunities, but we’ll see. This is important, as with the Indiana Senate and Gov. in Republican hands, the House has put the breaks on a lot of stuff. Next to Governor Daniels, the most powerful elected official in Indiana is House Speaker Pat Bauer. While no one loves him (he’s kind-of a smarmy old-time pol), he’s been a very effective speaker for our side. For example, he’s more-or-less single handedly responsible for an anti-gay marriage referendum going to the voters — not out of a committment to gay rights, but wanting to protect his members from having to vote on it.
In the last paragraph, that should say that Speaker Bauer is responsible for an anti-gay marriage referendum NOT going to the voters!
…there hasn’t been one in awhile.
Rasmussen just gets worse and worse, they can’t be trusted even remotely anymore. Even earlier this year one could make an argument to apply an arbitrary discount to Rasmussen’s numbers of up to 5 points in a given poll, and call that “reality.”
But now Rasmussen is so far out of the ballpark of reality that you can’t even do that, you have to pretty much ignore them altogether and just wait for somebody else to weigh in. I know SUSA did a poll with Rasmssen-like numbers in April for some academic political institute in Indiana, but that and a very dated DailyKos/R2K poll were it for alternatives. I’m surprised no one is polling this race more, especially now that the primary is over.
I was on the IU College Democrats during the 2006 election, and if their organization is anything close to where they were then, Baron should be fine.
I still really like Bauer. He is an effective speaker despite some of his faults. The only one I think could be better is Paul Robertson. Although I am a little biased in the sense he was an old High School teacher of mine. I am mildly optimistic about the State House races this year. We were supposed to lose it last year and it didn’t happen. It will defiantly be close though.
I feel good about the Senate as well. It seriously annoys me when people put it up with North Dakota and Delaware.
IN-09 Hill will survive. I have to admit it will be interesting to have a non Hill V. Sodrel race. I do worry because people hate Sodrel and sadly he is not the GOP nominee. If Hankins was the nominee I would put this at likely D just because that man is a nut. Also I don’t know if you heard but Joe Biden is going to attend a fundraiser Monday with John Yarmuth. 250 per ticket and 2400 for a VIP. It should bring in some dough for Hill.
IN-08 Van Haaften is actually fairly well known and popular. I actually knew who he was and I don’t know a whole lot of people in the 8th. I am mildly optimistic even without Risk as the nominee. Trent is actually reaching out to upset tea baggers and I am curious if that will work.
I feel good about Donnelly and I think Wacky Jackie will be fun to watch. I would be surprised if Hayworth won but all the same I like having him there just incase more shit happens.
I think this will be a good year to be a HoosierDem!
Will Dems hold it? What races are we looking at?
The thing I heard though was that teabaggers in IN-08 were talking about voting Haaften to spurn the establishment and get their favored son Hostettler back in, who was teabagging long before anyone had even thought of teabagging. Now excuse while I go break into a fifteen minute fit of laughter.
First off, very well done on the diary my friend.
As for the Senate race, it’ll be interesting to see if Ellsworth can nail Coats as the “establishment” candidate in a decidedly anti-establishment environment. Of course Coats is an old ex-Senator and I believe he recently was a lobbyist in D.C. Ellsworth certainly isnt going to win a statewide race this year in a typical blue-red fashion, so he’s going to have to make voters view Coats as establishment and himself as change. I’d put this at Lean GOP right now.