CA-Gov, CA-Sen: Whitman, Fiorina Lead Primary, Trail in General

Greenberg Quinlan Rosner/American Viewpoint for the Los Angeles Times and University of Southern California (5/19-26, likely voters for primary, registered voters for general, 3/20-23 in parentheses):

Carly Fiorina (R): 38 (25)

Tom Campbell (R): 23 (29)

Chuck DeVore (R): 16 (9)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

Barbara Boxer (D-inc): 44

Carly Fiorina (R): 38

Barbara Boxer (D-inc): 38

Tom Campbell (R): 45

Barbara Boxer (D-inc): 46

Chuck DeVore (R): 36

(MoE: ±2.6%)

Meg Whitman (R): 53 (60)

Steve Poizner (R): 29 (20)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

Jerry Brown (D): 44 (41)

Meg Whitman (R): 38 (44)

Jerry Brown (D): 45 (53)

Steve Poizner (R): 31 (22)

(MoE: ±2.6%)

Here’s one more poll confirming the last-minute surge for Carly Fiorina in the GOP Senate primary, which seems to have advertising disparities at its root: trailing by 4 in the late March LA Times/USC poll, she’s now up by 15. The previous poll only tested “Generic Republican” in the primary, and today’s results show why that was kind of silly, given the very different candidate profiles: Tom Campbell beats Barbara Boxer while Fiorina loses (I don’t think any other poll has had such a Campbell/Fiorina disparity in the general, though, and PPP went the opposite direction the other week, where Fiorina performed the best against Boxer).

On the gubernatorial side, this poll is remarkably right in line with other recent polls showing Meg Whitman’s big lead in the primary (50-29 Pollster average today) and Jerry Brown’s smaller lead over Whitman in November (46-39 Pollster average today).

10 thoughts on “CA-Gov, CA-Sen: Whitman, Fiorina Lead Primary, Trail in General”

  1. Campbell has performed better against Boxer in most polls.  

    I think what these numbers reflect are… Carly’s moderately negative ads promote her while tearing down Boxer.  This lessens Boxer’s numbers against Campbell, but does little to help her numbers.  

    At the same time, the far higher profile has vaulted her way ahead of Campbell… but this support is as squishy and thin as support can get — many of these people would be supporting Campbell if they had seen commercials by him instead.

    If Campbell has the money for commercials the last five days, he could have a shot, but lets hope note.  Carly is at her peak right now (zilch negative ads aimed at her lame resume) and has no real shot against Boxer.

  2. Prop 14 (Top Two primary) is up 52-28. Second recent poll that shows it likely to pass.  

  3. Are these pollsters using very different methodologies? The IA-Gov and IA-Sen polls have been more consistent in terms of which challenger does the best against the incumbent.

  4. Boxer 38

    Campbell 45

    seems like a mistake, but the report of Greenberg tell that. Would be more logical Boxer 45 Campbell 38 looking to all other results.

  5. I talked to my right-leaning centrist, decline-to-state brother, who will be taking a Republican ballot this year primarily so he can vote against Meg Whitman. Mostly, he just wants to screw with Republicans this year, so he’ll also now be voting against Steve Cooley… but it was hard to advise him on who to vote for in the Senate contest, since all the candidates are flawed. (Campbell=no money, Fiorina=gaffes, DeVore=too conservative)

    But he hadn’t seen either Demon Sheep or Chuck DeVore’s 24 ad and said he’d probably vote for whomever’s ad was worse….which I’ll guess will mean Fiorina.

    That said, he’s the sort of low-information voter that PG&E would target, but even he was like “I should vote against that power prop, right? Seems like a pretty blatant power grab by PG&E…” Here’s to hoping that even this piece of info gets through to low-information voters.

    Also, I remember reading, (but can’t find the study) that most voters, when they don’t know anything about a proposition, they’ll usually vote no on any given prop. Can anyone back me up or refute me on this?  

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