SC-Gov, SC-04: Haley Crushing, Inglis Slumping

Public Policy Polling (6/5-6, likely voters, 5/22-23 in parens):

Nikki Haley (R): 43 (39)

Henry McMaster (R): 16 (18)

Gresham Barrett (R): 23 (16)

Andre Bauer (R): 12 (13)

Undecided: 7 (14)

(MoE: ±3.1%)


Nikki Haley (R): 51

Gresham Barrett (R): 35

Undecided: 14

Nikki Haley (R): 62

Andre Bauer (R): 26

Undecided: 12

Nikki Haley (R): 54

Henry McMaster (R): 35

Undecided: 12

(MoE: ±3.1%)

It looks like Haley’s standing has not been impaired by the allegations of extramarital infidelity that have dominated the headlines this week. Her favorable rating among Republican primary voters sits at 58-23, an improvement over the 42-13 rating she had in late May. Moreover, by a 54-13 margin, Republicans don’t believe the allegations are true, and are split almost evenly on whether she should drop out of the race if the allegations are proven true.

We should also give thanks to PPP for taking a look at the 4th CD primary, where conservative GOP incumbent Bob Inglis is being teabagged to death:

Bob Inglis (R-inc): 33

Trey Gowdy (R): 37

Jim Lee (R): 9

David Thomas (R): 9

Christina Jeffrey (R): 5

Undecided: 7

(MoE: ±5.7%)

Despite a thoroughly conservative voting record, Inglis has committed a long list of verbal apostasies against the Glenn Beck wing of the Republican Party, and it seems that his occasionally moderate-sounding style is costing him big time among his party’s base. I think it’s worth revisiting one of the most astute pieces of analysis I’ve ever read on SSP, from a post by DavidNYC predicting Parker Griffith’s demise back in December:

It’s important to remember that to remain a member in good standing of the conservative movement, it isn’t enough just to vote a certain way. You have to evidence a very particular tribal belonging – you need to hate the right people, be ignorant of the right facts, be fearful of the right bogeymen, and be arrogant about the whole enterprise. If you somehow fail this tribal litmus test, it doesn’t matter how right-wing you are – that’s how, for example, a wildly conservative guy like former Rep. Chris Cannon could lose a primary to another wildly conservative maniac.

74 thoughts on “SC-Gov, SC-04: Haley Crushing, Inglis Slumping”

  1. for the GOP in a year when their base is all riled up. But shunning thoughtful conservatives (Bennett, Inglis) who every once in a while work across party lines to get something done and be effective legislators in favor of someone who is just as conservative but has that extra crazy factor isn’t sustainable. You can have a few Bachmanns and Joe Wilsons but when more and more members of the party are following that mold, the general electorate won’t allow it for long.

  2. Inglis. He’s a rare breed this day, people who are willing to work across party lines for the benefit of this country. Both parties have been missing that for a while….

  3. Bob Inglis is a solid conservative — not moderate, not crazy, but willing to work with others.  Remember he was one of the first members of Congress to face the Teagabbing Town Hall crowd last summer — and FOR NOTHING!!!  While I hate for members like him to be thrown out of Congress (I’d rather have someone like him to work on policy with — we’re never going to win that district), maybe it’s going to take people like him to lose their jobs for the Republican Part to come to their senses.

  4. Haley seems to be the second least electable Republican after Bauer; she’s too much in the Mark Sanford mode of Republicans and it seems conservative Democrats and independents are tired of that crusader fiscal conservatism. I think Sheheen would have a real shot at beating her, shockingly. I mean who would have though it that these midterms, after Obama’s performance in the deep south, could send in a block of Democratic governors from Alabama all the way up northeast to South Carolina, (Georgia in fact looks like the most favorable race of all, given the good campaign Barnes is running, the split Republican opposition, and the fact that the frontrunner, Oxendine, is not only extremely conservative, but he’s quite a sleazeball from all accounts I have in that state).

  5. I’ve been wanting to see a poll from Inglis’ primary for awhile. I saw him on Colbert awhile back, and he came across as a genuine, sane guy.

    On another note, I think DavidNYC’s analysis of Chip Cannon losing to a “wildly conservative maniac” is spot on. It’s sad that Inglis is going to lose to another reactionary Chaffetzian teabagger.

  6. First-time poster here so I apologize if going off-topic is frowned upon.  I’ll wait for the open thread next time.

    But I’ll go against the prevailing wisdom on this blog and predict that Angle wins big against Harry Reid, around 10 points.

    Angle is actually pretty popular if you look at the Mason-Dixon favorable/unfavorable numbers.  Reid is very unpopular and Mason-Dixon has shown similarly bad favorable numbers for Obama in Nevada (even the Daily Kos shows Obama underwater with his favorables in Nevada).  The only real difference between the favorable/unfavorable numbers for the Daily Kos and for Mason-Dixon is the favorable numbers for the Republicans.

    Caveat: I recognize that favorable/unfavorable is a very misleading number.  The argument that people do not vote for people they have an “unfavorable” opinion of is wrong.  A left-leaning or right-leaning voter will likely vote for the Democrat or Republican, respectively, even if they have an “unfavorable” opinion of the politician.  So I’ll concede that favorable/unfavorable numbers are not dispositive as it often depends on why people have an “unfavorable” opinion about you.

  7. That those were the most exhaustingly thorough crosstabs i’ve ever seen. Rasmussen would never give you that amount of detail.  

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