OH-Sen, OH-Gov: 3 Out of 4 Ain’t Bad

PPP (pdf) (6/26-27, Ohio voters, 3/20-21 in parens):

Lee Fisher (D): 40 (36)

Rob Portman (R): 38 (41)

Undecided: 22 (23)

(MoE: ±3.9%)

Quinnipiac (6/22-27, Ohio voters, 4/21-26 in parens):

Lee Fisher (D): 42 (40)

Rob Portman (R): 40 (37)

Undecided: 17 (21)

(MoE: ±3%)

Well, the two nationwide pollsters left that I trust anymore are both out with new polls in the Buckeye State. In the Senate race, both PPP and Quinnipiac find a two-point lead for Democratic Lt. Governor Lee Fisher over Republican ex-Rep. Rob Portman, which is consistent for Quinnipiac but a significant reversal for PPP, who had Portman leading three months ago.

Barack Obama approval isn’t very high in either poll (45/49 in Quinnipiac, 42/54 in PPP), but PPP’s Tom Jensen thinks that anger towards Washington, in a counterintuitive way, may help Fisher: Portman is a creature of the Beltway, while Fisher is a long-time fixture in Columbus. GOPers might argue that Portman’s problem is low name recognition, which he can fix with his large financial advantage, but his “not sures” aren’t that much bigger than Fisher’s: according to PPP, Fisher’s faves are 28/27 while Portman’s are 22/25.

PPP (pdf) (6/26-27, Ohio voters, 3/20-21 in parens):

Ted Strickland (D-inc): 41 (37)

John Kasich (R): 43 (42)

Undecided: 16 (21)

(MoE: ±3.9%)

Quinnipiac (6/22-27, Ohio voters, 4/21-26 in parens):

Ted Strickland (D-inc): 43 (44)

John Kasich (R): 38 (38)

Undecided: 15 (17)

(MoE: ±3%)

We don’t get agreement from PPP and Quinnipiac on the governor’s race. PPP gives a tiny lead to Republican ex-Rep. John Kasich while Quinnipiac gives a slightly bigger lead to Democratic incumbent Ted Strickland. Interestingly, that’s consistent too; PPP has repeatedly taken a dimmer view of Strickland’s chances than Quinnipiac.

The difference seems to be that PPP finds Strickland (37/48 approval) much more unpopular than Kasich (28/30 faves), while Quinnipiac finds both of them in positive territory (44/42 approval for Strickland, 28/19 faves for Kasich). My only hunch is that the differential may have to do with PPP’s current use of a very loose LV screen, while Quinnipiac has been polling RVs (although note that Qpac now is saying it’s polling “Ohio voters,” so I’m left wondering if they too are moving toward a hybrid LV model like PPP).

20 thoughts on “OH-Sen, OH-Gov: 3 Out of 4 Ain’t Bad”

  1. While Portman and Kasich are certainly credible candidates taht are probably going to keep it close, they are both so Wall Street corporate — and Ohio isn’t the best place for that right now!

  2. We got really lucky that Republicans chose Portman. Although his financial edge could cause problems, he’s going to be easily tagged to the Bush administration and the free trade policies of corporate America, which do not obviously fit much with swing parts of Ohio. In general, the extreme views and/or lack of great fit (in terms of matching the ideology of their states) candidates among the Republican nominees could really save us in November, particularly on the offensive side with Burr, Portman, Blunt, Paul, Rubio, and possibly even Grassley. If Fischer runs the race in a strong manner, he could easily beat Portman similarly to how Critz won over Burns. I imagine Bill Clinton would once again be of great assistance.

  3. The race will probably break on whether Portman can maintain his lead with independents though.

    “Fisher and Portman are each getting 69% of their party’s vote, and Portman has a 40-25 lead with independents. One thing striking in the numbers is the level of voter indecision. 22% are undecided and they don’t know their candidates particularly well yet. 45% don’t know enough about Fisher to have formed an opinion and 53% say the same when it comes to Portman.”

    If Portman maintains a similar or even slightly diminished lead as the other 50% of independents get to know him, he’ll win. With his huge war chest, there’s a very distinct possibility of that. Definitely going to be one of the closest races of the cycle.

  4. you just gotta love it.  Always an electoral hotbed.  

    Again I’m just going to reiterate what I’ve thought all along, that Portman-Fisher is a total tossup and that Kasich-Strickland is somewhere between tossup tilt democrat and lean democrat.  At this point despite what the numbers say, the fact that Strickland is a superior and more charismatic campaigner to Fisher, and the fact that Portman has an abundance of cash are the factors that in my mind make the senate race a better opportunity for Team Red.  

    I keep hammering this point too.  These races will mirror each other in the vote.  Portman may run slightly ahead of Kasich because of money, but in all honesty, they are pretty much the exact same candidate, and so are Strickland and Fisher.  Not only that, but the democratic and republican bases in Ohio are both ideologically and geographically difficult to crack.  I would be stunned, shocked, if there wasn’t 95% straight ticket voting in these two races.  If Strickland wins by more than 5%, Fisher’s going to win too, and if Strickland loses outright, it’s going to be virtually impossible for Fisher to win.

  5. PPP projects a turnout here where 2% of Obama voters don’t vote in 2010 compared to a parallel group of Mccain voters.  Their horrible Pennsylvania sample was 22%, and their Wisconsin one was a ludicrous 28%.

    Obviously this is completely impossible.  Ohio is not that different than pennyslvania and Wisconsin.  If anything, Ohio’s Obama-2008/not-voting-2010 group should be higher than PA and WI.

    The basically sane Ohio sample though is what keeps it in line with Quinnipiac (although Quinnipiac did not release numbers of Obama vs Mccain voters).

    Hopefully PPP has righted itself after two outlier blunders.

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