SurveyUSA (7/9-11, likely voters, no trend lines):
Tarryl Clark (D): 39
Michele Bachmann (R-inc): 48
Bob Anderson (IP): 6
Aubrey Immelman (I): 2
Undecided: 5
(MoE: ±4.2%)
This is the first public poll we’ve seen from this race since December, when Public Policy Polling gave Bachmann a significantly wider 55-37 lead. One of the most striking findings of the poll — other than the recurring SUSA curiosity of an extremely GOP-friendly electorate of younger voters — is the monstrous gender gap. Males favor Bachmann by a 56-31 margin, while women support Clark by a narrower 47-39 spread.
Overall, these aren’t bad numbers for a district as red as this one in such a craptacular environment, but I still have enormous difficulty selling any kind of optimism for a race that stung us twice in much friendlier cycles.
…is that Anderson is drawing 6%. The protest vote in MN always has a place to go where it won’t hurt the Republicans: the Independence Party.
please continue spending your money in MN-6…
That Indy percent worries the shit out of me, but Bachmann really cant be doing any better than she is now. I think people here are being a bit too pessimistic and a double digit loss I think is a far-off possibility. Bachmann may be able to spend a shit ton on ads about how great she is doing fighting Obama and while this is a GOP district where should resonate, that is covered up by her crazy.
Whatever she is polling at now is going to be her high mark and 48% is a shit place for her to start. Her ads will do very little as most people are pretty decided about if they can or cannot vote for her. And Clark is going to nail her with her attack ads day and night. Clark is not well known, she can only do better from here. But the fucking Independence Party will most likely ruin it for us.
FYI, this is one district where Bachmann doing well with 18-34 year olds wouldnt be too surprising while Clark does well with older folks.
Does Elwyn have more money he can transfer? Im sure the DFL would do him a solid. (Why isnt he running for state house and giving us an easy pick-up in his home district?)