SurveyUSA (7/16-19, likely voters, no trend lines):
Tom Perriello (D-inc): 35
Rob Hurt (R): 58
Jeff Clark (I): 4
Whoa — those are some dreadful numbers for Tom Perriello. But let’s first compare this poll to SUSA’s final poll of this race from 2008. In that one, SUSA’s likely voter universe was 40% Democratic and 38% Republican. This time, it’s 42% Republican and 27% Democratic. In 2008, SUSA pegged the electorate as 22% black — this time, just 13%. Furthermore, African-American voters give 27% of their votes to Hurt in this poll, a significantly higher share than the 13% given to Goode. Young voters, too, have completely flipped against Perriello; Hurt racks up a 62-30 lead among 18-to-34 year-olds after Perriello rocked Goode among those voters by a 61-34 margin two years ago.
Back in February, Public Policy Polling released a poll showing Perriello and Hurt tied. That poll, which used a slightly softer likely voter screen, had a 39D-35R sample, was 24% African-American, and had a sub-sample of 18-to-29 year-olds who favored Perriello by a slim 45-42 margin.
Which poll are you buying stock in?