SurveyUSA (7/17-20, likely voters, no trend lines):
Rick Boucher (D-inc): 52
Morgan Griffith (R): 39
Jeremiah Heaton (I): 5
Undecided: 5
(MoE: ±4.2%)
Continuing the clean-up of items we missed while boozing it up in Las Vegas, SurveyUSA’s next stop on their Virginia road trip is the much-hyped match-up between veteran Democratic incumbent Rick Boucher and Virginia House of Delegates Majority Leader Morgan Griffith. Compared to the absolute carnage that SUSA projected in their poll of Democrat Tom Perriello’s race, this poll looks a lot more comforting for Team Blue. Still, like we did for the Perriello poll, it’s worth comparing SUSA’s 2010 likely voter universe to their work in previous cycles.
We have to look back to July 2006 in order to find SurveyUSA’s previous poll of this district. In that poll, Boucher led Bill Carrico, also a member of the state House of Delegates, by 66-29. Boucher ultimately won that race by a 68-32 spread, so I think it’s safe to say that SUSA nailed it four years ago. That year, SUSA’s likely voter model had a 21% sample composition of 18-34 year-olds, who favored Boucher by a whopping 65-31 margin. This year, SUSA’s likely voter screen only has a 12% sample of 18-34 year-olds who favor Griffith over Boucher by an eye-popping 61-31 margin. The sample of self-identified conservatives has shot up from 40% in 2006 to 54% today. As for party composition, SUSA’s screen has shifted from 38D-35R-25I in 2006 to 33D-35R-29I this year, which seems like it could be an entirely reasonable turnout projection.
Would I buy stock in these numbers? I’m not sure, but the fact that this sample’s party ID hasn’t gyrated as wildly as SUSA’s VA-05 polls leaves me more trusting of this poll.
A more rightward shift in this district considering the long term trend of the area; Obama didn’t move the needle at all in this district as a whole, making it the most Republican district now in Virginia.
Boucher has a lot of intrinsic advantages; such as 28 years of incumbency which have allowed him to build a vast local infrastructure of support at the county level, and a lot of personal popularity, not to mention his stringent support of gun rights and moderate views of social issues have allowed him to position himself as a more populist politician, the kind, that, like Mark Warner, can play well in this district.
I was glad to see a poll here; I admit I was a little worried that Boucher might be feeling the heat. But all signs point to a serious Griffin fizzle; from Boucher’s massive cash on hand advantage, to how well the campaign has gone thus far.
He mostly votes his district while Perriello mostly does not. I imagine Nye is somewhere in between.
If anything, the toplines are a bit more conservative-friendly, because I’m not sure Griffith will be winning young voters by a 61%-31% margin. I think for all polls taken over the summer, we have to keep in mind that polling young people in college will be very different, as they’ll be spread out all over, back in their home districts. And VA-09 is home to a pretty major university in Virginia Tech.
Staying above 50 is always big for an incumbent. The worry for Boucher is a large number of Indies and voters overall haven’t heard of Griffith yet. I wonder how many of those voters Griffith will be able to bring in.
If there are any districts young people would support an R this is probably one of them. Clearly this district strongly supports R’s for higher office and newer generations don’t have years of affection for local D’s like senior citizens (who Boucher is dominating).