As you’re probably now aware, the DCCC has reserved $28 million worth of ad time to help shore up the re-election campaigns of 40 incumbents (and one open seat campaign) this fall. While we don’t know how much money will be spent everywhere, the Hotline has a partial list of dollar figures for a few select districts. Let’s look at the fab forty-one in chart form (click on the table headers to sort):
| District | Incumbent | 2008 Margin | Obama %ge |
|---|---|---|---|
| AL-02 | Bright | 0.6% | 36% |
| AZ-01 | Kirkpatrick | 16% | 44% |
| AZ-05 | Mitchell | 10% | 47% |
| AZ-08 | Giffords | 12% | 46% |
| CA-11 | McNerney | 10% | 54% |
| CO-04 | Markey | 12% | 49% |
| FL-02 | Boyd | 24% | 45% |
| FL-24 | Kosmas | 16% | 49% |
| IA-03 | Boswell | 14% | 54% |
| ID-01 | Minnick | 1% | 36% |
| IL-11 | Halvorson | 24% | 53% |
| IL-14 | Foster | 15% | 55% |
| IN-02 | Donnelly | 37% | 54% |
| IN-09 | Hill | 19% | 49% |
| KS-03 | OPEN | 17% | 51% |
| MI-07 | Schauer | 2% | 52% |
| MO-04 | Skelton | 32% | 38% |
| MS-01 | Childers | 11% | 38% |
| NC-08 | Kissell | 11% | 53% |
| ND-AL | Pomeroy | 24% | 45% |
| NM-02 | Teague | 12% | 49% |
| NV-03 | Titus | 5% | 55% |
| NY-23 | Owens | 2%† | 52% |
| NY-24 | Arcuri | 4% | 51% |
| OH-01 | Driehaus | 5% | 55% |
| OH-13 | Sutton | 29% | 57% |
| OH-15 | Kilroy | 0.7% | 54% |
| OH-16 | Boccieri | 11% | 48% |
| OH-18 | Space | 20% | 45% |
| PA-03 | Dahlkemper | 2% | 49% |
| PA-10 | Carney | 12% | 45% |
| PA-11 | Kanjorski | 3% | 57% |
| PA-12 | Critz | 8%† | 49% |
| SC-05 | Spratt | 25% | 46% |
| SD-AL | Herseth | 35% | 45% |
| TX-17 | Edwards | 7% | 32% |
| TX-23 | Rodriguez | 14% | 51% |
| VA-02 | Nye | 5% | 51% |
| VA-05 | Perriello | 0.2% | 48% |
| VA-11 | Connolly | 12% | 57% |
| WI-08 | Kagen | 8% | 54% |
(†Special election margins)
Note that the DCCC does not necessarily need to use these reservations. (For example, the DCCC reserved $2.1 million in 2008 to beat up the Republican nominee in NY-13’s open seat race, but ultimately didn’t spend a dime against Bob “The Wiener King of Manhattan” Straniere.) Also note that the DCCC has yet to reserve time in any open seats (aside from Dennis Moore’s) or Republican-held districts.
The scary thing is that I can think of a few dozen more Democratic incumbents whom the DCCC might feel compelled to drop some significant coin on defending.
this morning, for example.
First, there are no open seats except KS-03, where the wife of the incumbent is running, so this seems to be all about incumbent protection.
Second, ALL of these are Leans D or worse on SSP House ratings, so good job SSP picking the tough races!
A. The “WTF” Candidates.
1. MD-01 – Kratovil – WTF? His internal has him up five so we can’t be throwing him overboard can we? Is he doing a Nancy Boyda and declining help? Harris has $$$ so he needs it.
2. NH-01 – Shea-Porter – Another WTF. Polls show a tight race and she desperately needs $$$. Is DCCC sending a “no bailouts” message to poor fundraisers?
3. FL-19 – Hall – Another poor fundraiser, so could be.
B. Candidates who may be in good shape poll-wise.
4. GA-08 – Marshall – Dems may not be too worried about this one. Strong conservative profile for Marshall.
5. KY-06 – Chandler – Ditto.
6. MN-01 – Walz – Walz won by 30 last time, so maybe he’s OK.
7. NM-01 – Heinrich – If Survey USA is right, he needs the help. But internal has him up double digits.
8. NY-20 – Murphy – Gibson raised lots of $$$ last quarter, but Dems may feel OK here.
9. PA-04 – Altmire – Rothfus at big CoH disadvantage. Altmire may be OK.
10. PA-08 – Murphy – Fitzpatrick fundraising big. Surprised no help for Murphy. Could be a good sign.
11. TN-04 – Davis – March Republican internal had Davis up 11, and Republican candidates are nobodies.
C. Candidates who may not need the money
12. CT-04 – Himes – Doesn’t need it.
13. FL-08 – Grayson – Doesn’t need it.
14. FL-22 – Klein – With $4MM+ raised between the candidates, DCCC help would be a drop in the bucket.
15. NJ-03 – Adler – Doesn’t need it
16. NY-01 – Bishop – Much like FL-22. Huge money among the candidates renders DCCC a little superfluous.
Stephene Moore is basically considered an incumbent at this point and is being defended as such. Which means the DCCC, for one, thinks we can definitely win KS-03. That makes two of us, I guess. And to those who have Lean-R on this one, no. Just, no. This seat basically defines tossup this cycle. If we lose a wealthy, moderate suburban district this year, we’re screwed. If we hold it, I bet our losses will be more limited than everyone suspects.