SSP Daily Digest: 7/27 (Morning Edition)

  • Netroots Nation: In case you missed it, click the link to watch the video of our panel on the 2010 horserace from last Friday at Netroots Nation. It was a terrific, fast-paced panel and we were asked a broad range of questions on a ton of different races. Fun stuff! Also of interest, Greenberg Quinlan Rosner conducted a straw poll of convention-goers. They included one horserace-ish question, asking participants which race was their top priority this fall. 31% picked NV-Sen, followed by PA-Sen (25%), KY-Sen (21%), MN-06 (15%), and VA-05 (7%).
  • CA-Sen: The NRSC has reserved $1.75 million in ad time for Carly Fiorina – but remember, just cuz you reserve time doesn’t mean you necessarily wind up buying it, so this could just be a feint.
  • FL-Sen: Kendrick Meek is up with his first ad, attacking zillionaire schmuckface Jeff Greene for his past run for Congress in California – as a Republican – and for the windfall he reaped by betting on a housing market collapse two years ago. Adam Smith of the St. Pete Times says the buy is for $420K, which he thinks is “pretty small” for the pretty big state of Florida.
  • IL-Sen: Mark Kirk is pulling a Pat Toomey. You’ll recall that the ultra-conservative Pennsylvania senate candidate somewhat surprisingly endorsed Sonia Sotomayor’s nomination for the Supreme Court. Now it’s Kirk’s turn to try to burnish his “moderate” credentials, so he’s backing Elena Kagan.

    • Meanwhile, here’s some new craziness: A federal district court judge just ordered a special election to fill the remaining months of Roland Burris’s term, most likely to coincide with the regular election in November. Both Kirk and Dem Alexi Giannoulias have said they want to run in the special, and they probably won’t have to face a primary, since the judge seems inclined to allow nominees to be picked by party committees. Politico points out a potentially huge angle to all of this: the FEC says that since the special would constitute a new election, the candidates would be able to raise fresh money for that race – meaning that Kirk and Giannoulias could hit up maxed-out donors once more.

  • PA-Sen: But wait! Pat Toomey isn’t pulling a Pat Toomey! He’s coming out against Elena Kagan.
  • WV-Sen: When early word came that Rep. Shelley Moore Capito wouldn’t run for Robert Byrd’s seat, we said that we’d move the race to Likely D. Capito made it official last Wednesday, so consider this move retroactive to that date.
  • MI-Gov: Bummer: Detroit Mayor Dave Bing has endorsed DLC Dem Andy Dillon, whom Dillon called a “kindred spirit.” Given Bing’s outsider status and short tenure, I suspect he’s not quite a “machine” mayor, though, who can deliver wards on the turn of a heel.
  • MN-Gov: Republican gubernatorial nominee Tom Emmer continues to burnish his moron credentials. The other day, he declared that Minnesota should pass its own GI bill to help veterans. Good idea, right? So good, in fact, that the state actually passed such a law three years ago. Even better: Emmer, a state representative, voted against the bill!
  • RI-Gov: Linc Chafee won the endorsement of the 10,000-strong Rhode Island Federation of Teachers and Health Professionals, his first big union nod. The Projo says that the teachers had been favored to go to AG Patrick Lynch, but Lynch rather unexpectedly dropped out of the race not long ago, and evidently Dem Treasurer Frank Caprio didn’t suit them.
  • SC-Gov: Nikki Haley, a member of the Strength Through Crippling Austerity wing of the Republican Party, is trying to soften (i.e., flip-flop) some of her less business-friendly stances. The AP explains her shifts on two issues: the infamous anti-tax pledge sponsored by Americans for Tax Reform, and the bailout.
  • IL-17: Can an internal poll sometimes seem just too good? That’s how I feel about this survey by Magellan Strategies for GOPer Bobby Schilling, which has him up 45-32 over Dem Rep. Phil Hare. YMMV.
  • NY-13: John McCain is endorsing former FBI agent Mike Grimm in the GOP primary. Grimm has faced hostility from the Republican establishment here, which has backed Michael Allegretti (whom Maggie Haberman delightfully refers to with the epithet “Bayside fuel heir”). Apparently, McCain (who has a race of his own to worry about) will both fundraise and campaign for Grimm, though no word yet on when. As for why he’s getting involved, Haberman says it’s because of his relationship with Rudy Giuliani and Guy Molinari, both of whom are supporting Grimm.
  • NY-15: Charlie Rangel’s autobiography is titled “And I Haven’t Had a Bad Day Since,” referring to his service in the Korean War. Well, it sure seems like he’s had more than a few bad days lately, with the latest batch coming in the last week. The House Ethics Committee declared on Thursday that Rangel had indeed committed transgressions and created a new panel to investigate further. In response, Indiana senate candidate Brad Ellsworth announced he would give to charity all the money he’s received from Rangel (some $12K). Rep. Betty Sutton (OH-13) went one further, calling on Rangel to resign. For the record, Rangel disagrees with me, saying: “I’m not in a foxhole, I’m not surrounded by a million Chinese communists coming after me. Life is good. I’m 80 years old. I’m on my way to a parade.”
  • OK-05: SoonerPoll.com has a survey out of the 5th CD Republican field, finding former state Rep. Kevin Calvey increasing his lead from 20 to 28 since the last test in March. Some Dude James Lankford is in second with 20, followed by 15 for state Rep. Mike Thompson, 6 for state Rep. Shane Jett, and a bunch of other Some Dudes bringing up the rear.
  • PA-15: This is what we call a good get: Bill Clinton will be coming to Salisbury Township for a fundraiser for John Callahan on August 10th. As is so often the case with the Big Dog, this is payback for Callahan’s support of Hillary Clinton’s presidential bid in 2008.
  • TN-09: Willie Herenton, asshole until the end:

    • Willie W. Herenton, the former mayor, is accusing Steve Cohen, the white two-term United States representative, of “trying to act black.” He tells voters in this majority-black city that they “need to come off that Cohen plantation and get on the Herenton freedom train.”

  • WI-03: State Sen. Dan Kapanke has an internal out from Public Opinion Strategies (memo here) which shows Dem Rep. Ron Kind up just 44-38.

    • 93 thoughts on “SSP Daily Digest: 7/27 (Morning Edition)”

    1. I would guess that is better for Alexi since he has struggled to raise big bucks after his fast start. He isn’t ever likely to match Kirk but diminishing returns will kick in somewhere down the line.

    2. I’m not surprised that it is so close, and if it really is a huge GOP wave, Kapanke would definitely take that seat–his State Senate district is actually more Democratic than WI-3 as a whole, so his main challenge will be introducing himself to Eau Claire and the SW Wisconsin rural areas.  He is very well liked in the area despite his very strong social conservatism.  He is a tad more moderate on fiscal issues, at least as far as Wisconsin Republicans go these days.  

      The bright side to him winning would be that if La Crosse voters get buyers remorse on the GOP majorities, his Senate seat could very well tip the balance of the State Senate–if the GOP were to pick up 2 seats to go to a 17-16 majority with Kapanke included (a likely scenario), his resignation would bring it down to 16-16 and then there would be a special election that would essentially decide control of the whole State Senate.  

    4. Not surprising, given Caprio’s moderate reputation; many would argue Chafee is the most liberal candidate in the race. Similarly, in RI-01, though Cicilline is the frontrunner I don’t see organized labor coalescing behind him, he’s had quite a few fights with them to the point where Hillary Clinton asked Cicilline, a supporter of hers, not to appear at her Rhode Island rally because Providence firefighters threatened to protest.

    5. In 1994, Chuck Robb was an unpopular incumbent in a bad year.  Some in VA joked that any registered voter in VA could run against Robb and win.  Then Ollie North of all people wins the GOP primary, outspends Robb 4-1, and loses by a 3 point spread.

    8. SurveyUSA shows Barela up 6 (51-45) on Heinrich in NM-1:

      http://www.kob.com/article/sto…

      Shows Barela leading among all age groups and only behind by about 3 among women, which is strange. Article also mentions that Barela has done very little campaigning, so it could just be that people strongly dislike Heinrich.

      Heinrich’s campaign counters with a GQR internal showing him up 12, 53-41.

    9. Has any polling, internal or external, come out for this district yet? Now that Manchin’s on the ballot, perhaps he’ll help candidates like Oliverio rally Dem support.

    13. Bill Clinton’s fundraising help is appropriate even if people hadn’t endorsed HRC.

      Think about it, if you were in a heavily minority district or in a very liberal distrct, Obama/Biden is the better choice. (I dont think much of Biden in these circles but he is the VP).

      In rural areas, predominantly white areas, heavily union areas, etc, Bill Clinton is the better choice, especially at the moment.  Too bad Hillary can’t campaign in her current job, that would be even better in these same districts.

      Its unique that both sides can fundraise for very different constituencies within the same party.

      The Democratic party sometimes acts crazy and eats its own.  But right now we’re definitely a big tent party.

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