Deducing Total Fundraising from ActBlue Reports: Joe Sestak

   Quarterly fundraising reports are not enough for me.  I want to know how much a candidate is raising on a monthly basis.  Now that ActBlue commands a dominant share of Democratic fundraising, it is now possible to predict how much a candidate is raising before they file a quarterly report.  Here is my favorite Senate candidate, Joe Sestak, as an example.

Quarter #      ActBlue    Overall Report  %ActBlue

4, 2009        $242,000    $650,000        37.2

1, 2010        $200,000    $442,000        45.2

2, 2010        $665,000    $1,950,000      34.1

July 2010      $469,000    TBD             TBD

 Joe Sestak uses ActBlue on his campaign website to take online donations.  As a result, the % of money raised via ActBlue is surprisingly stable across quarters.  From this pattern, I can deduce that Sestak has raised $1.1-1.4 million in July (OK, and the first 2 days of August).  To take it further, I expect Sestak will raise $3-4 million this quarter.  Past performance is not a perfect predictor of the future, but the ActBlue info gives me evidence enough that Sestak is still a strong fundraiser.  Sestak will need all that money if he is going to beat Pat Toomey the Club for Growth.

 

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