Mason-Dixon for Georgia Newspaper Partnership (8/2-4, likely voters, no trendlines):
Karen Handel (R): 47
Nathan Deal (R): 42
Undecided: 11
(MoE: ±4%)
InsiderAdvantage (8/5, likely voters, no trendlines):
Karen Handel (R): 46
Nathan Deal (R): 46
Undecided: 8
(MoE: ±4.6%)
Landmark (8/7, likely voters, 8/1 in parentheses):
Nathan Deal (R): 44 (37)
Karen Handel (R): 42 (46)
Undecided: 14 (17)
(MoE: ±3.9%)
Georgia’s GOP gubernatorial runoff is tomorrow, and as things reach a climax, no fewer than three pollsters are out today with their final look at the race. Karen Handel won the first round pretty easily, but it’s looking like Nathan Deal has finally consolidated a substantial amount of the conservative vote behind him that he’d previously shared with Eric Johnson and John Oxendine. (Which, of course, isn’t to say that the Sarah Palin-backed, let’s-repeal-the-state-income-tax Handel is some sort of moderate, just that stylistically she’s staking out somewhat less red-meat-intensive turf.)
If you average these polls out, you might think that Handel had a small advantage going into tomorrow, but the fine print seems to give Deal most of the momentum. The three polls here, arranged by chronological order in which they were taken, give successively better performances to Deal. And the one poll here with trendlines (Mason-Dixon and InsiderAdvantage have both polled this race repeatedly, but in each case this is their first post-primary pre-runoff poll), Republican pollster Landmark, actually switches from a significant Handel lead to a teeny Deal lead. Considering that Democratic ex-Gov. Roy Barnes would probably rather face Deal than Handel (and thus have the moderate turf all to himself, as well as the ethics cudgel), he might actually catch yet another break here.
I think the undecideds are going to break to Deal, since most voters who have shifted their votes already have gone for him.
Anyone know the win percentage of a plurality winner in a run-off?
which means that Handel is pretty much guaranteed to win if you go by Erickson’s track record.
Over 3,000 in Atlanta for the rally today, a little bit more than Obama’s rally in Austin, Texas.
http://www.11alive.com/news/na…
I’d be really shocked if Handel didn’t win this one. I guess the benefit for Barnes is that he’d be facing a neophyte politician but that seems to be what voters are seeking in this cycle.
He switched after surviving the 1994 wave and quickly became one of, if not the, most conservative members of Congress. In the general election, does his Dixiecrat background help him with very conservative Democrats in rural Georgia? Alienate those voters because he left their party? Or was it so long ago that it won’t be a factor at all?
Barnes probably becomes a slight favorite in the general election if Deal manages to win this thing tomorrow. Handel seems pretty stupid though and quit her job three years into her term to run for governor full time. Between that and Deal’s ethics issues, Barnes probably has a good shot no matter who he faces.
Barnes would probably be running away with it if this were a neutral year.
Deal polled better against Barnes than Handel? I could be wrong in remembering that though. I’ve also been reading Peach Pundit alot and folks there are very split and Deal even talked about not necessarily endorsing Handel if she wins (Cat fud!). She apparently has gone incredibly negative and folks aren’t about her departure from her more moderate image. I’m sure Roy feels good about facing either one. Hard to believe that one of our best pickup opportunities might be in Georgia!