WA-Sen: It’s Still Going to Be Murray and Rossi

SurveyUSA for KING-TV (8/6-9, likely and actual voters, 6/25-28 in parentheses):

Patty Murray (D-inc): 41 (37)

Dino Rossi (R): 33 (33)

Clint Didier (R): 11 (5)

Others: 10 (6)

Undecided: 4 (19)

(MoE: ±3.9%)

While Dino Rossi has been, in public, trying to stay above the fray and treat his advancing from Washington’s Top 2 primary as a given, he’s also been trying to consolidate support from various right-wing kingmakers (Jim DeMint, Tom Coburn), which suggests he’s at least somewhat sweating the challenge from various teabaggers on his right flank. SurveyUSA’s new poll (of likely and “actual” voters, the latter being those who’ve already sent in their mail-in ballots) shows that there his efforts may be warranted, as he’s flat while everyone else is gaining: principal Tea Party opposition Clint Didier, Democratic incumbent Patty Murray, and the vast hodgepodge that is “other” (partially fellow teabagger Paul Akers, who’s in the low single digits, but also 12 other assorted dreamers and cranks). Rossi, of course, is in no danger of losing his ticket to the big dance in November, but he probably wants to avoid an embarrassing finish in distant second.

As with the previous SurveyUSA poll, one red flag for Murray is that Rossi + Didier > Murray. PPP‘s recent poll of the primary is an interesting comparison point, because their numbers for the Republicans are pretty similar while finding Murray further along (Murray 47, Rossi 33, Didier 10, Akers 4)… but they don’t include an “Other,” suggesting that SurveyUSA is finding at least a handful of folks who prefer Murray to the GOPers but, given the full panoply of options, plan to waste their primary votes on one of the perennial candidates who are self-described Dems (like the ubiquitous Mike the Mover).

43 thoughts on “WA-Sen: It’s Still Going to Be Murray and Rossi”

  1. Murray better hope it goes up from there on election day. Remember what the Hotline said:

    If Murray pulls in 50% or more of the vote on primary day, that would have to be considered a smashing victory for her. But due to the factors described above, she would still be in pretty good shape, arguably, with anything over 47%. Any vote total in the 44%-46% range would have to be considered something of a “yellow alert” for her, and she would be in real trouble if she pulled in anything less than 44%.

    I think she probably ends up around 45, with enough undecideds going for her.  

  2. One question about the CA way, does it take top to winners or top two winners per party? if its top two per party, the GOP could easily clear the field for one of their dudes, and have CA votes vote for the less electable dem if there was more than one of them on the ballot.

    Ugggg

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