KY-03: Yarmuth Looks Good

Braun Research for cn|2 (8/9-10, likely voters, no trend lines):

John Yarmuth (D-inc): 52

Todd Lally (R): 29

Michael Hansen (I): 1

Undecided: 17

(MoE: ±4.4%)

The class of 2006 and 2008 represent some of the best targets for Republicans to shoot for this fall, but we at least we can feel pretty good about John Yarmuth’s chances at a third term in his Louisville-based district. And that’s good to hear, as Yarmuth is a great representative who’s proven to be a solid fit for his district — his approval rating according to this poll is 62-32.

In an interview with cn|2, Lally’s campaign manager pushed back at the poll’s results, in part by claiming that “we’ve already had independent polls that are closer”. That’s a pretty curious thing to say, considering that the only other polls of this race that have been released this cycle, according to SSP Archives & Storage, were a Yarmuth internal that pegged the race at 58-32, and Lally internal from the obscure Rivercity Polling group which claimed that Yarmuth only had a 1-point lead on Lally. Surely the Lally campaign isn’t suggesting that their own pollster, who produced the outlier in this triad of surveys, should be considered an independent source?

27 thoughts on “KY-03: Yarmuth Looks Good”

  1. No surprises at all. Yarmuth has his job as long as he wants it and I sure as hell hope it’s awhile. Goodness I bet Abramson regrets passing in 2006, he did not think he could beat Northup and this liberal some dude editor who had never sought public office does it. Believe it or not Northup was fairly popular and still is, heck I’ll admit I did not mind her in many ways, she brought home the bacon and was active in the bridges project. But she kept on defending Bush, never tried to distance herself. If she would have kept a somewhat moderate looking voting record. But no. I know many conservatives and while they may not like Yarmuth’s politics they like him personally. He is very engaged, you see him on the local news and at local events all of the time. Louisville is a big city but it really does have a small community feel to it in many ways. I love the area, I work there and lived there for a few years. It is great. By chance does anyone know if they did the Mayors race? I would love to see some more data.  

  2. that more conservative whites are moving out of Louisville and this district is becoming more like TN-9 and less like the district that the GOP held?

  3. John Yarmuth is a media darling in Louisville. He would actually have to do the kittens in the woodchipper thing (Colbert Report) in order to NOT have favorable coverage. All the media hacks think JY is their buddy, because he used to socialize with a lot of them when he published LEO. Considering he never gets any negative coverage, it kind of surprises me his approval isn’t higher.  That doesn’t mean he is a good fit for the district.          

    If his voting record (over 90% with Pelosi) was scrutinized by the local media hacks, I don’t think he’d be so popular. Outside of the Highlands/Crescent Hill- Germantown – and West Louisville, Louisville is a lot more conservative than you would think. If at some point it would appear that Lally had a shot at winning this thing, a lot of support (money) would swing his way. Unfortunately for Lally, the perception is that he can’t win this thing, so money and vocal support are staying away. Twenty-three points is a big deficit, but it isn’t insurmountable, especially if Rand Paul an Hal Heiner run strong in Jeff. County.  

  4. I just read the actual CN/2 article that indicated that Obama’s approval numbers are at 56%. This should tell you that maybe the poll was skewed to west Louisville and the Highlands. There is NO WAY his approval numbers are that high across the district.

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