Public Policy Polling for Daily Kos (8/14-15, likely voters, 3/27-28 in parens):
Robin Carnahan (D): 38 (41)
Roy Blunt (R): 45 (45)
Jerry Beck (C): 5
Jonathan Dine (L): 3
Undecided: 9 (13)
(MoE: ±3.7%)
Robin Carnahan once had a small, persistent lead in this contest, but all that went up in depressingly sweet, sweet smoke back in January. (Granted, most of the polls since that time have been from the desk of Scott Rasmussen…)
PPP’s likely voter universe for Missouri has taken a turn for the red, with a sample that supported McCain over Obama by seven percent. With that in mind, Carnahan’s strategy seems based in part on making Blunt’s name poison among the anti-bailout crowd, releasing a new ad touting his role in shepherding the Wall Street bailout through the House in 2008. Maybe that’ll be good enough to shave off a few points from Blunt’s hide to the third-party candidates in November, but Carnahan will need to find a way to get listless Dems to the polls while she’s at it.
i gave up on this one a few months ago. our pickup chances are fl, oh, ky, in that order. mo isn’t gonna happen
I see not reasons for this change. If the new system gives better results, why introduce the change just after poll NC? NC would be the more important poll for PPP.
What mean a likely voters model? What is a likely voter really? Lots of undecided persons what finally would vote can get out in these models.