AR-02: Griffin Up by 17 Points

Talk Business Research/Hendrix College for Talk Business (8/17, likely voters, no trend lines):

Joyce Elliott (D): 35

Tim Griffin (R): 52

Lance Levi (I): 3

Lewis Kennedy (G): 1

Undecided: 9

(MoE: ±3.7%)

Oof. The story is in the favorables: Griffin, who won his two-way primary back in May without a runoff, has a net favorable rating of 53-21. Elliott, who slogged through two rough rounds of primary balloting, is underwater at 32-45. Griffin even leads in Dem-friendly Pulaski County, which was one of those rare spots in Arkansas that voted for Barack Obama back in 2008.

The NRCC is already telegraphing that they consider this race in the bag, going so far as to highlight the open seat race in Arkansas’ 1st CD as a target for ad dollars this fall while signaling that they’re prepared to let Griffin stand on his own.

SSP currently rates this race as Lean Republican.

17 thoughts on “AR-02: Griffin Up by 17 Points”

  1. by the democrats of AR-2.  The minute Elliot won the primary, this seat was lost.  Granted, Wills wouldn’t have been a guarantee to win, but he’d have a gazillion times better chance than Elliot.

  3. That Griffin has favorables this high is indicative of how poor a campaign Elliot seems to be running. The guy should have a big fuckin target on his forehead after all that shit with the US attorneys.

    This is the most Democratic district in Arkansas so maybe we could win with a stronger candidate who’s a better fit for the district.

  4. This is the fourth likeliest seat to flip from Democrat to Republican on my list.  Once they nominated an AA, the race was over.

  5. Anyone know how much spending against Griffin the Elliott campaign or other Democratic-aligned forces have already put into this race? I certainly buy Griffin being favored here, but it should be really easy to lower that favorable number by November given his background.

  6. Not really, I wrote this race off the minute Elliott won the primary. Out of the 30 seats I expect to lost, this is one on them and one of the first to flip. I’m sorry but a black woman cannot win this district and i’m sorry if I sound racist.

  7. She’s one of the more liberal members of the Arkansas State Senate and that is what is weighing her down, plus it’s a poor cycle for Democrats. Like I said, perhaps I’m naive, but I just don’t see race playing a part in this, because Vic Snyder was down 17 points to Griffin and made the decision to retire. I think it’s just the cycle.

  8. Why is she such a bad candidate, in other words?

    From what I seem to be hearing, it’s because she seems too liberal – and she’s black and a woman. I did a google and wikipedia search, but they didn’t provide too much information.

    Anyone willing to provide more details?

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