Braun Research for cn|2 (8/16-18, likely voters, 8/2-4 in parens):
Jack Conway (D): 42 (31)
Rand Paul (R): 41 (41)
Undecided: 16
(MoE: ±3.5%)
cn|2 is reporting this one as a tie, and it essentially is — down to decimal points, Conway leads by a margin of 41.7 to 41.2 for the rogue ophthalmologist. (Update: Not that we think it’s legit to go to so many significant digits…)
Rand Paul’s campaign is questioning Braun for its gyrating results, but cn|2 notes that other results from the last two polls, such as Obama’s approval (40%) and the generic ballot (a 12-point GOP advantage), have been consistent. Perhaps the shift is legit, and perhaps it could be explained in part by Paul’s controversial comments on how the illicit drug trade in Kentucky is not a “real pressing issue” and that federal funding for anti-drug initiatives should be pulled. That sort of talk didn’t go over too well with law enforcement officials in Eastern Kentucky, where the problem is particularly pronounced; it’s worth noting that the Congressional District with the biggest jump in support for Conway was the Eastern 5th CD. Conway trailed in that district by 24-38 two weeks ago, and now trails by only 38-42. (Yes, the usual caveat about obese margins of error applies for small sub-samples like these.)
There’s still some life in this one, yet.
This may be a perfect storm where a capable top-tier Democrat, AG Jack Conway, may be able to win a solidly Republican leaning state on the federal level due to the nomination of a controversial Republican, Rand Paul. If SOS Trey Grayson had won the nomination, I doubt this race would be anything in the bag for the Republicans.
Rand Paul’s lack of emphasis on, and out-right dismissal of, Kentucky based issues in favor of national ideological concerns has to be ever more concerning. Polling I hope will continue to show this is a trend. Too early to tell though.
First KY-03, then NJ-03, then KY-Sen? Where’d these guys come from, and how reliable are they? They seem to have come out of nowhere, or have I just not been paying attention closely enough?
All their results are consistent, in a very oddly inconsistent way.
Their first sample, people over 50 years old: 77%
Their second sample, people over 50 years old: 54%
This third sample, people over 50 years old: 43%
(Kentucky 2008 exit poll, voters over 50: 44%)
So they are around reality now…
With this poll and the last I am thinking that Paul is probably leading within the margin of error. What a mistake. Grayson would be leading by 10-15 points. Ryan made a comment yesterday about how he would probably support Conway. He is not the only Republican. I personally know a Grayson supporter who will be voting for Conway. There are a lot of them. This race is winnable and should not be. Paul is within the margin of error and that is without Conway starting to campaign. I am moving this from lean R to tossup.
And if Conway keeps running a good campaign and capulates on Paul’s remarks like on what the Senate does and KY’s drug problem the AG could fucking win this thing.
By the way James, change the name of the diary from Conway Noses Paul in New Poll to the rogue ophthalmologist losing by a nose. I chuckle everytime you refer him to that.
James L…there is more than life in this one,yet. We have to get aggressive and we will win NC, KY and MO…the rep. candidates stink and we will win!!!!!!!!!!!
KY has become the best pickup possibility for the DEMS. Assuming we lose AR, DE, IN and ND and assuming that the GOP also picks up PA and CO, that would be bad enough. If Crist takes FL and caucuses with the DEMS (and he will, he will) and we pick-up KY, then the GOP gains will be reduced to +4, 3 seats under the mid-term seat switch average for the US Senate.
This can easily be our pickup. Kentucky is nowhere near as solid red as many believe. GOP support is a mile wide and an inch deep everywhere but the Eastern mountains, and Paul just screwed the pooch with them with his dismissal of the horrible drug problem there.
Conway needs only to make no mistakes from here on out, and the race is his.
And I’ll go on record with GayTeen and others in predicting a 55-seat Democratic Senate caucus. I actually don’t think Crist will caucus with the Democrats — that’s just wishful thinking. But he will win.
And so will Reid, Bennett, Sestak, Gianoulias and Murray. Boxer and Feingold won’t even be close.
At this point, the only sure goners for the Democrats are SD and AR, with DE and IN as leaners. I also put NC down as a Republican leaner, but another very winnable pickup for us. A recent poll by PPP of the favorable/unfavorables of 31 candidates in 15 races showed Elaine Marshall, the NC Dem nominee, as having the second-best favorables, behind Mike Castle, the DE Republican nominee. With a little love and money, Marshall could pull another surprise pickup.
Right now, I’d call OH and MO the only tossups.
These opinions, of course, are mine only.
Right in-between this and the latest from Rasmussen. I agree with those that think this is possible but I remain skeptical it actually comes to pass.
It’s kind of ironic: if Rand Paul were ever in the Senate he’d vote with Democrats far more often than would Trey Grayson. Grayson is a cookie-cutter generic Republican who would never vote with Dems on anything, while Paul could potentially vote with Democrats on some social issues and foreign policy issues. If you read House roll calls–which I do, it’s incredibly nerdy and I’m glad you don’t know me in real life because you would make fun of me–you can see that Ron Paul isn’t a slam dunk Republican vote.
If Republicans ever regain the Senate, it’s likely he wouldn’t support some of their big-government/low-taxes policies. Ron Paul didn’t support the PATRIOT ACT if I’m not mistaken.
In terms of political rhetoric and discourse, Paul would be cataclysmic. If he wins, his voting pattern would be better than his would be Kentucky Senate mate, Mitch McConnell.