InsiderAdvantage for WSB-TV (8/18, likely voters, no trend lines):
Roy Barnes (D): 41
Nathan Deal (R): 45
John Monds (L): 5
Undecided: 9
(MoE: ±4%)
InsiderAdvantage is out with their first general election poll of Georgia, and all signs are pointing to a tight race this fall. Among independents, a demographic that’s been giving Dems a hard time across the country, Deal leads Barnes by only 41-38.
Deal’s camp is spinning the results as if they represent something of a high-water mark for Barnes, arguing that their candidate just emerged from a bloody runoff (not to mention several days of Barnes attack ads), and is still standing on top. Maybe, but I can’t help but get the feeling that this race is just getting warmed up.
Also of interest is an accompanying article by InsiderAdvantage CEO Matt Towery on the poll’s results. One graf in particular stands out:
Make no mistake – this will be a tight race. But for Barnes to win he must shed the country boy image he has been projecting on television and go after the independent voters who seem inclined to consider voting for him. Barnes must become the metro Atlanta candidate, and that means the real Roy Barnes, who is articulate and sophisticated, must emerge in his commercials. For Deal to win, he must convince voters that he is familiar with statewide issues and that he is not tainted by ethical problems, tax problems or other questions that would be left hanging were he to be elected governor.
Interesting food for thought: Can Barnes successfully resurrect the old rural/urban Democratic road map to statewide victory in Georgia, or is he going to need to write a new playbook?
Meanwhile, we’ve also got some Senate numbers:
Michael Thurmond (D): 35
Johnny Isakson (R-inc): 47
Chuck Donovan (L): 7
Undecided: 11
(MoE: ±4%)
Pretty weak tea for Isakson — this guy is hardly beloved by any means. Still, it’s hard to see Thurmond powering himself to anything beyond a respectable showing.
He’s just gotta make Deal own his ethical baggage. Then, Barnes has to make Georgians nostalgic for him.
They lost all credibility with me when they released this poll that showed Jim Martin getting 4th place in the 2008 Democratic Senatorial Primary in GA?!?!
I can’t think of a worse candidate the Republicans could have put up. I think the only reason that Deal won the primary is because, as John Stewart put it, he unleashed the gay monster against Handel. If that’s the best he can in the general while Barnes rips him on ethics, I could conceivably see this a 8-10 point victory for Barnes.
Pretty sure Michael Thurmond is not the incumbent.
This is my first real post here btw, although I’ve lurked for a long time.
Deal seems like a boring/weak candidate to me. It’s just hard because it is Georgia. Realistically Deal will probably eek this out. He’d have to make an error to give Barnes an opening. Which is very possible so I’m interested to see how this one trends.
The senate race won’t be a blowout, Isakson is very conservative, even for Georgia.
If he does, I imagine it’s because a) Deal can’t deliver the Karen Handel base, and b) Michael Thurmond’s presence on the ticket keeps African-American turn-out fairly strong.
That said, despite Georgia’s history as something of a Lean-R swing state, I feel like, at least for now, in these tough times for Democrats, it’s trending slightly more red. Not Arkansas red, but red to the point where even a perfect candidate like Roy Barnes will have trouble prevailing.
For now, I see these races as…
GOP – 36%
Democrat – 34%
Independent – 30%
Barnes – 13/93/46 = 51%
Deal – 87/7/54 – 49%
Ha! So, even after all of that, I wind up finding Barnes ahead. Toss-up.
Thurmond – 7/87/44 = 46%
Isakson – 93/13/56 = 54%
Despite my calculation, I suspect I’m being awfully kind to Thurmond. What I basically did here was plug in the internals from Isakson/Majette, and then give Thurmond a little better margin with each group (cuz, after all, he’s a better candidate than Majette). What helps Thurmond, though, is that ’04 turn-out was 42/34/24 GOP/Dem/Indie. Likely R, though I’d keep polling this.
a runoff in GOV, and Isakson win in SEN