Alaska, Arizona & Vermont Primary Results Thread #4

4:46am: Hm, nope. We’re now at 77% reporting, and Miller’s up by 2,996. That’s it from me, though. Goodnight and good luck!

4:41am: Okay, I lied. With 72% now reporting (the final DoE update for the night), Miller now leads by over 3,100 votes.

4:28am: Final update, I swear! From the ADN:

The final results of the race won’t be known for a week. The Alaska Division of Elections said over 16,000 absentee ballots were requested and as of Monday night 7,600 had been returned. The first count of absentees will be next Tuesday and there will be subsequent counts as they trickle in on Sept. 3 and on Sept. 8.

4:24am: The Anchorage Daily News is tweeting that the Alaska DoE will stop counting votes at 12:30am local (six minutes from now) and will resume in the morning. Hope you have your morning coffee ready!

4:00am: One final update from the SSP Rocky Mountain Headquarters: We’re up to 66% of the vote reporting in Alaska, and Joe Miller’s lead has shot up to 2,881 votes (still 52-48). Who knows how long it’ll take to sort this one out. The last time we covered a close Alaska primary, we ended up liveblogging for 24 hours.

3:22am: We’re going to call it a night at SSP. Before we go, though, a quick Alaska update: 51% are reporting (not much change over the last hour), and Miller’s lead is 52-48, by 2,300 votes. Based on half-assed piecing-apart of the legislative districts (y’know, it seems like once every two years I really find myself wishing that Alaska had counties), though, that lead may be kind of fragile as more rural areas start to report more. But we’ll know more tomorrow.

3:20am: A few minutes ago the AP finally called AZ-03 for Ben Quayle, who wins with an overwhelming mandate of 23%. He’ll face Dem Jon Hulburd in November. Also just noticed the AP called, at some point, AZ-Sen D for Rodney Glassman, who wins with 35% and will face John McCain.

2:50am: And it looks like they’ve just shut it down for the night in Vermont, with no clear victor in the Dem gubernatorial primary. They’re still stalled at 232 of 260 precincts.

2:49am: 94% reporting in AZ-03, but still no call. It’s still Ben Quayle at 23, with 18 for Steve Moak, and 17 for Jim Waring and Vernon Parker each.

2:47am: Sean Parnell has been called the victor in the GOP gubernatorial primary. It wasn’t that overwhelming, though: also exactly 50% of the vote, with Bill Walker pulling in 34%.

2:45am: Almost exactly half reporting in Alaska, and the Miller lead continues to grow very slightly: he’s up to a 2,200 vote lead, good for a 52-48 margin. Whoever wins will face Scott McAdams; the Sitka mayor has been called by the AP as winner of the Dem primary (with 50% of the vote).

2:14am: With 36% reporting, it’s still 51-49 for Miller over Murkowski. The lead is up to 1,200 votes. Interestingly, though (if I’m reading this map correctly), it seems like the Mat-Su Valley (the most conservative part of the state, including Wasilla, home of Miller’s most famous endorsers) has mostly reported (based on state House districts 12 and 15). The Bush (which if you remember your 2008 history, where Young’s victory eventually came from) reports later, and they might be less teabaggish and more pork-friendly out there.

2:00am: The last uncalled GOP primary in Arizona is AZ-03, although we’re up to 81% reporting. Ben Quayle is still leading, by that same 23-18-18 margin over Jim Waring and Steve Moak.

1:45am: One other call: the AP call the GOP primary in AZ-01 for rogue dentist Paul Gosar. He’ll face Ann Kirkpatrick. He wins with only 31%, beating Sydney Hay at 23 and Rusty Bowers at 14.

1:42am: The AP has called Don Young’s GOP primary for him, beating Sheldon Fisher with 70%. He’ll face Dem Harry Crawford in November.

1:41am: We’re up to 33% reporting in Alaska, and it’s still 51-49 for Miller over Murkowski, with a 1,000 vote lead for Miller. (Well, 1,002, if you want to get technical.)

RESULTS:

131 thoughts on “Alaska, Arizona & Vermont Primary Results Thread #4”

  8. Its hard to get a read on what turnout will be, but it looks like GOP primaries in recent times for Senate/Gov have been in the 80,000-110,000 range or so.

    If the turnout is on the lower end, its possible that Miller could pull it off.  

    Do people really see Murkowski as a port deliverer?  She’s only been a Senator for a small time, and the pork probably hasn’t been as huge in recent years considering certain govt programs (TARP/Stimulus/Race for Education funds) were reviled by the GOP.

    And the bridge to nowhere, even though not of her specific doing, made ths tate and pork look kind of silly.

    I want to get cautiously optimistic.  If he gets up by 2,500 votes I’ll probably stay up all night watching.

  10. With 80% in, looks like Potatoe Jr. is holding steady. I bet he pulls it out.

    I’d love to see the results of AK-Sen (R) but I oughta head off to bed. Thanks, SSP, for another fun primary night.

  14. If Miller pulls this off, I wonder if Democrats would try to pull a “Dan Maes” and try to convince McAdams to step down in order to run Tony Knowles.  As with Maes, I see no reason why McAdams would do so.

    Looking at which Alaska state legislative races have reported, it seems that even though only about 40% of precincts have reported, I bet a lot more than 40% of the total votes for the night have already been counted.  The districts in the bush have more precincts than the “urban” districts do, and those bush precincts haven’t come in.  While Murkowski should be favored in them, they have fewer votes per precinct.  

  15. Overall, the House, Senate, and Governor outcomes give Democrats a great chance to hold or win many of the seats in November, although Republicans managed to choose some of the more challenging opponents for Democrats to face in the House races. In my local county (Polk County), an anti-science School Board member, as well as poor member generally, is barely holding onto second place. The candidate that I chose finished 1st with 28.66%, so I am hoping she can round up the anti-incumbent votes for the November top two runoff and make the School Board more progressive.

  16. The AP Count has Shumlin ahead by 121 votes with 232 of 260 reporting.  Per the Seven Days blog, I know the results in St. Albans City and St. Albans Town.  I also have the results from Middlesex from the Times Argus Times Argus.

    So with 235 precincts in (my count is better than AP’s I am happy to say) I have Shumlin ahead by 20 votes.

    That’s right: 12 fricken votes.

    I have their totals as follows:

    From AP:

    Shumlin 16960

    Racine 16839

    St Albans Town

    Racine 143

    Shumlin 129

    St Albans City

    Racine 146

    Shumlin 129

    Middlesex

    Racine 127

    Shumlin 93

    Which give you the following totals:

    Shumlin 17275

    Racine 17255

  22. Anyone out there knowledgeable about AK election law?  I see to recall that in one of Knowles’s gubernatorial campaigns, the Alaska Republicans nominated someone with legal issues and a moderate Republican launched an independent bid that basically got as many votes as the Republican nominee.  If Miller holds on, I wonder if some ambitious Alaska Republican would consider an independent bid — if it’s not too late to do so??  That would be exactly what McAdams needs.

  24. I just needed to say that.

    Too bad Boyd didn’t go down too.  Though I don’t see how he survives November with that result.  And if Murkowski chokes too, I might just send the Tea Party a check to keep up the gag good work…. 😀

  29. I figured he’d have this put away. French might be a better candidate tho since Berkowitz lost to Don Freakin Young and in 2008 of all years.  

  30. Murkowski is in his personal advisory circle, and it takes one more woman out of the Republican caucus to make it a little bit more of the white male club

  32. Although knowing nothing about him, I’ll take the mayor of Alaska’s 4th largest city (even if it has less population than some buildings…)

  33. If we extrapilate out the votes for all the counts that are at least 50% in(all but HD 6,36, 37, 38, 39, 40) there are only 3,350 votes left. Also looking at the registration numbers on the state site compared to actual numbers 75% of the number of republicans voted in the primary(its high because un/nonafiliated voters can vote republican too).  Use this to decide that there are only 7,100 could have voted republican in the 6, 36, 37,38 ,39 and 40 HD.

    Also remember that we know that 1,000 already voted in the 6th and 36. so we get 6,000. also 15% voted so far in 37-40 so subtract another 300 or so.

    What we get is ~9,000 votes left, many still in neutral or pro miller districts.

    This thing is over.

  34. Oh look at that 77% in Miller still up by 3,000

    Also the Northern and western Districts are coming in and most must have been mail in becuase they were all 1st precint heavy

  35. 1. Some upsets (the biggest one, naturally in Alaska, if Miller clings to his lead), some near-upsets (FL-02, to some extent FL-24, AZ-08 and, may be even FL-Gov (R))

    2. Some extremely close calls, especially VT-Gov (D), which will require quick reconciliation around winning candidate. Otherwise – chqances will diminish greatly.

    3. A lot of “crazies” on Republican side – FL-Gov, AK-Sen (if holds), AZ-08. Unfortunately – this year most of the crazies will win, so it reminds me to some extent 1994, when, looking at newly elected Republican Congressmembers, most people said: “that’s crazies – they will be defeated next time”. Some – were, but not too much, and some are “still here”.. Democrats were able to regain control of the House only 12 years later, and risk to lose it this year, after only 4 years.

    4. Republicans are still better organized and energized. Obama squandered gigantic political capital quicker then any President after James Carter, and may be – even quicker… His name and support is an albatross in most places (in general election of course, in primary it may even help “to rally the faithful”)…

  36. Hopefully the DSCC gets in here to help this guy out, or at least do a quick proofread of his website and tell him to fix the typos. Interior Alaska is “to far away to engage?” Come on man, stop killing the language.

    Hell maybe Betty White can make an appearance; “The Proposal” was set in Sitka (though not really filmed there).

  37. and 2,550 margin.  That’s about 550 votes in 7%… if that rate continued she’d cut the margin to 400 or so, which smells like choas to my with thousands of absentees out that won’t be counted till September.

    Maybe Miller will even manage to say some very mean things about Lisa during that time.

    I know she wouldn’t want to be a Senator, but I wonder if Palin is kicking herself for not running.

  38. Alex Sink in good position. Liberal Lisa embarrassed if not defeated.

    How’s that Tea tasting Mitch?  If all the wackos (Angle, Paul, Utah guy,Russ johnson, Miller, Rossi,etc.) win in November, you might take a back seat to DeMint.

    Christine O’Donnell must be smiling today !! You can do it girl, kill that RINO Castle. Kelly Ayotte will be looking over her shoulder too.

    McCain would have lost if he had had a less baggaged opponent.  

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