KY-03: Yarmuth Up by Only 2 Points

SurveyUSA (8/31-9/1, likely voters, no trend lines):

John Yarmuth (D-inc): 47

Todd Lally (R): 45

Ed Martin (L): 1

Michael Hansen (I): 1

Undecided: 5

(MoE: ±4.3%)

Let’s take stock of the polling situation:

  • In early August, Braun Research, polling for local cable news kings cn|2, gave Yarmuth a 52-29 lead over Lally in early August.
  • A Yarmuth internal by Cooper & Secrest conducted in late June showed Yarmuth up by 58-32.
  • A Lally internal by the obscure Rivercity Polling group, which was conducted over a period of nine days in late June, found Yarmuth up by only 44-43.

Let’s take a look at how SUSA’s estimation of the LV universe has shifted over the past three cycles:

Nov-06 Oct-08 Aug-10
Democrat 54% 57% 50%
Republican 33% 35% 40%
Independent 12% 8% 8%
Liberal 18% 20% 12%
Moderate 43% 44% 41%
Conservative 39% 31% 40%

I’m not saying that’s right, but I am saying that’s scary!

(Hat-tip: Kendall)

22 thoughts on “KY-03: Yarmuth Up by Only 2 Points”

  1. I’m willing to believe a lot, but I don’t believe Yarmuth will lose.

    In another thread (the one about the Perrillo poll), DCCyclone has a really good post about why these Survey USA numbers are so out of whack. Basically, they employ a decent screen, but don’t do any adjusting for demographics or past voting patterns. So, it’s producing some very pro-Republican results right now, since Republicans are the ones answering their polls.

    (I think I got that right, anyway. Hopefully DC will weigh in if I didn’t).  

  2. Even if Conway loses the Senate race by 10 points, he’ll carry the third district solidly.  Lally would have to get a lot of Conway votes to win here.

  3. No way in hell young voters in Louisville are THIS pro-Republican! (The internals are just whacked out in this “poll”!) SUSA jumped the shark long ago, and I stopped taking them seriously.

  4. If memory serves, Kentucky reports fairly early because their polls close at 6 o’clock ET. Yarmuth had beaten Northrup in 2006 by 4 or 5 o’clock my time in California, and all the pundits knew a national wave was building. If on election night, Yarmuth loses, I’d have to say we’ve lost the House. The fact that the polling is so close right now shows that if the election were today, there’d be a 50% chance we’d lose the House. Hopefully, things calm down for the Dems by early November.

    But the Yarmuth seat will be the early indicator. It’s seats like his which will mean the difference for us between being in the majority or not come January 2011.

  5. Down 51-45. Since then three polls have him up 12, 6 and 7. The first a Dem poll, the latter being a GOP internal. Again, spot the outlier?

  6. seems a bit odd to say the least. Still the Mayor numbers seem about right. The Braun poll showed Fischer leading by 6 points and in this poll he leads by two. So maybe a bit to the right but the Mayors numbers give this poll a bit more credibility. Still the mood would have to be horrible for Yarmuth to lose. This may be close after all but Yarmuth has spent no money so far, give him time to define Lally. He has the money to do so.  I wish PPP would poll here.  

  7. Again I think you guys are missing something here.  Remember the Republicans held this seat until January 2007.  A lot of people are assuming districts like this are now and will always be Democratic.  This district went Republican 5 out of the last 7 congressional elections and only fell in two of the worst years in a generation for Republicans.

    Yarmuth won by a pretty high margin in 2008, but it was a 51 to 48 race in 2006.  Northup got 60 percent of the vote in 2004.  Clearly this district has a tendency to vote Republican.

  8. Its still a decent poll for Yarmuth.  Compared to Lally:

    1.  He has more room to grow to consolidate Dem support than Lally does with GOP support.

    2.  Lally leads by 15 points with Indies, that’s not too likely to get noticeably worse.  

    3.  Yarmuth only gets 77% of the black vote, so that might have room to grow.

    4.  MoE is 4.3% so it could range anywhere from a 10% Yarmuth lead to a Lally 6-7% lead.

    Also, I’m not too familiar with Kentucky.  Is there a specific reason why Lally would be doing SO WELL with the 18-34 crowd?  Why would that group be so anti-Yarmuth when Yarmuth carries every age group over 35?

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