Public Policy Poling (9/2-6, likely voters, no trend lines):
Chellie Pingree (D-inc): 47
Dean Scontras (R): 38
Undecided: 15
(MoE: ±3.5%)
Some have cited Maine’s first district as a potential upset this fall, pointing to Pingree’s underwhelming 10-point win in 2008 (a spread that Obama doubled against McCain). It looks like Pingree is still underperforming against the not terribly well-funded businessman Dean Scontras (who tried but failed to win the GOP nomination in ’08). However, it’s looking like the 2nd District race may end up to be quite a bit closer:
Mike Michaud (D-inc): 45
Jason Levesque (R): 38
Undecided: 17
(MoE: ±3.8%)
Levesque has raised a bit of money that has enabled him to actually go on the air, and we recently flagged this race as one worth keeping a wary eye on. The numbers suggest that Levesque is the candidate with more room to grow:
This race is probably going to tighten up because 21% of Republicans are undecided while only 10% of Democrats are. Michaud has his party base pretty much locked up at 81% while Levesque’s getting only 65% of his party as many remain undecided. Michaud is also leading 43-34 with independents despite the fact that they disapprove of him by a 34/46 margin.
Both of these are interesting races. Neither incumbent has locked up their re-election, but their GOP opponents will probably need some help in overtaking them. The NRCC may have more opportunities this fall than they can afford.
I wonder when Silver will have his house forecasting model done and published I’m also anticipating whether it will simply rely on the generic ballot (to create a Dem
35 seats generally), be the generic ballot supplemented with polling from individual seats (to create a modified seatby-seat forecast), or simply a generic seat-by-seat forecast.Frankly, depending on which direction he goes, Michaud may be shown as in trouble by his model.
$58,961 versus $668,266 equals likely Dem.
That poll had strange internals. 85% of the sample in Michaud’s district was 46 or older. In Pingree’s district, 70% were 46 or older. Midterm electorates skew old, but they don’t skew that old. In the 2008 exit poll, only 56% of Maine voters were 45 or older.
As another poster noted, the sample may have skewed old because it was taken on Labor Day weekend when younger voters are more likely to be out.
In such a terrible enviroment some unfortunate people will lose who didn’t do anything to “deserve” it (no scandal,no lack of funds, ect).
While I’m not claiming this necessarily is is, this is the type of district that s relevant.
Michaud leads by 7. More republicans are undecided and it seems clear the independents who are undecided are more likely disapprove rather than approve of Michaud. Also there is the upticket support from a strong Republcan nominee.
Basically all the dynamics point to this race tighting.
Usually when we see a wave at least someone every considered likely or safe for most of the cycle goes down (’08 may have been an exception.) There’s a good chance that a seat–just one or two–like ME-02 or IA-02 or NC-07 flips this cycle, but it’s almost impossible to predict beforehand which one it’s going to be. This poll, which has its demographic flaws, shows that neither Michaud nor Pingree is out of the woods, but the individual odds of one of them losing is pretty low.
I continue to think that Pingree is very much an underperformer. 47% against very conservative Scontras is not something to brag about in her liberal-leaning district. Michaud is stronger, but Levesque is, probably, better candidate then Scontras (though – underfinanced), and district is very quirky in it’s habits)))