Quinnipiac (9/9-14, likely voters, 6/22-27 (RVs) in parens):
Ted Strickland (D-inc): 37 (43)
John Kasich (R): 54 (38)
Undecided: 7 (15)
(MoE: ±3.6%)
Quinnipiac (9/9-14, likely voters, 6/22-27 (RVs) in parens):
Lee Fisher (D): 35 (42)
Rob Portman (R): 55 (40)
Undecided: 9 (17)
(MoE: ±3.6%)
Given that every other pollster has seen a very bumpy ride for Democrats as they make the transition from a registered voter model to a likely voter model, I was already expecting a steep drop for the Dems in Quinnipiac’s Ohio polling (they’re the last of the major pollsters to make the switch to LVs). But, dang, that is one unbelievably steep drop, not consistent with the 5-point-ish RV-to-LV difference seen elsewhere (including Qpac’s Connecticut polling this week, or PPP’s latest round of Ohio polling). Take the Senate race, for example: I have absolutely zero doubt that Lee Fisher is trailing in reality, and probably by at least 10, but the 20-point reversal plus these favorables suggest a decidedly GOP-ish sample (Fisher 29/36, Portman 44/20, and Obama 38/60).
SurveyUSA for WCMH (9/10-13, likely voters, no trendlines):
Ted Strickland (D-inc): 40
John Kasich (R): 52
Other: 5
Undecided: 3Lee Fisher (D): 40
Rob Portman (R): 49
Other: 7
Undecided: 4
(MoE: ±4%)
Opinion Research for CNN/Time (9/16, likely voters, no trendlines):
Ted Strickland (D-inc): 44
John Kasich (R): 51
Undecided: 1Lee Fisher (D): 41
Rob Portman (R): 52
Undecided: 2
(MoE: ±3.5%)
I hate to be that guy who cherrypicks polls, but SurveyUSA and particularly CNN/Time’s polls seem more plausible here. Neither of them have trendlines, but CNN/Time is instructive because it looks at an RV model as well as an LV model. Among registered voters, they find Kasich leading 49-46 (a 4-point variance from the LV model) and Portman leading 49-42 (a 3-point variance). That’s much more consistent with usual enthusiasm gap findings, so it’s a good bet to assume that the Republicans are “only” leading in the 7-11 point range. Yay!
Well, Ted Strickland knows how to fight back. He rolled out an internal poll showing a 3-point lead… for John Kasich?!? (It’s from the Feldman Group, and the toplines are 48-45). Given the Raul Labrador rule, and on top of that, the fact that Strickland is the incumbent, that internal poll doesn’t leave me feeling any more confident than before. The Strickland camp is rolling out two new ads and is also benefiting from a huge AFL-CIO direct mail blitz on their behalf, but given the national climate, it looks like money alone isn’t going to fix these races.
Love the title of the diary.
home to a love-hate relationship with polls. SUSA has been maligned and raked through the coals just as Rasmussen has. However, either you accept their methodology or you do not.
What we’re seeing here in Ohio is a democratic base that is becoming quite dispirited. That’s the main problem, and for the longest time, the situation here was actually looking quite good compared to other states in the region, like Michigan, Illinois, and Pennsylvania. Well, now it’s our time to pay the piper, and it sucks.
The strangest thing is, I figured all along that the governor’s race would be the main event, pitting the two relatively strong pols against one another, and that it would drive turnout. But now the Senate race is moving more into the spotlight, and I think that Fisher’s suckiness is starting to rub off on Strickland a bit. Ted is fighting his ass off to keep the governor’s mansion, and outside groups are starting to get involved as well. The ODP has been working well with the Strickland campaign, and I get the feeling that the ground operation there is going to be pretty strong just as it was in 2006. Fisher on the other hand, is a mess. He’s been a mess ever since the primary campaign, and I don’t want to hear the same tired excuse that Brunner drained his funds. Even if Fisher was a rich, self funder, the bottom line is that he is a cold, clammy, old guard pol that is extremely unpopular among base voters, especially the young ones that so fervently supported Barack Obama in 2008.
The situation is such for Fisher that he’s looking at losing Montgomery County (Dayton) and Franklin County (Columbus) outright. That is pathetically bad for any statewide democrat in Ohio.
We could lose all the levers of redistricting control if things keep up like this.
With numbers like that … pass the bourbon.
populist appeal that Fisher doesn’t? and would she have been as far down as he is?
how during the spring and early summer Strickland (and to a lesser extent, Fisher) was leading or tied in most polls that were not Rasmussen? What happened to that? Did Strickland mess up somehow, or Rasmussen just the only one with a pulse on the real likely voter universe?
(Of course, Strickland was leading for most of ’09 as well, but so were a lot of people and that lead had appeared to be gone in late ’09 early ’10 IIRC…)
Ideally, you wouldn’t release an internal showing your opponent ahead, but they couldn’t let a 17-point lead for the Republican drive the media narrative. At that point the race is basically over.
To hang your hat on Quinnipiac when Rasmussen is in the same ballpark as SurveyUSA and Ipsos but it hardly matters except perhaps for the possible effect on House races.
Those two states are such disaster zones for Dems right now they could easily be the difference between keeping the House and losing it.
those in Ohio may go from having almost 100% Democratic control in statewide offices to solely Sherrod Brown!
And the DSCC needs to give up in Ohio. It’s that simple. If Fisher is down by 11, they can redirect to New Hampshire, or Kentucky or Missouri, where they are probably closer. OH-01, OH-15, and OH-16 are gone. I’m pretty sure Space is going to win. OH-13 is the only district that is in the “tossup” area right now.
The democrats are dropping the following seats in PA and OH:
PA-3
PA-7
PA-10
PA-11
OH-1
OH-15
Arguably, I probably should’ve had OH-16 falling as well, but I totally discredited the WAA poll that had Renacci up 14 on basis of a ridiculous sample. (84% of respondents were 50+ age)
PA-8 is a dead heat. OH-18 should arguably be a GOP pickup but Space has had relatively good numbers most of the way (although that certainly could have changed in the past 2-3 weeks) Those two seats would make it 9. I don’t see any other seats falling. PA-4 and PA-17 aren’t going anywhere. Neither is OH-6. OH-13 could possibly fall, but if it does, we’re talking about a 65-70 seat tsunami.
Hey, did anybody notice the generic ballot average is down to Repubicans +3.5? That’s not so bad…snark
…for the next 10 years just like they did in 1994. the state of the Ohio Democratic party before Strickland was absolutely dismal.
and over the past 5 years the decline is visible. The economy has been stagnant for a while but this recent recession killed a lot business and jobs that were just hanging on. Voters have short memories in Ohio. The economy has been tanking terribly the past 2 years. Therefore the democrats are going to absorb all that blame.
Republicans including John Kasich attacked the new president’s economic plans. They warned the new president would make the economy worse. John Kasich said “This plan will not work. If it was to work, then I’d have to become a Democrat.” This was 1993. The president was Bill Clinton. Under Clinton’s leadership the economy boomed. John Kasich – a partisan Republican who knows nothing about how the economy works. A Democratic org should be responsible for the content of this ad.
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