Mason-Dixon (9/20-22, likely voters, no trend lines):
Alex Sink (D): 47
Rick Scott (R): 40
Undecided: 11
(MoE: ±4%)
Mason-Dixon actually has polled this race before, but I left out the trend lines due to Bud Chiles’ presence in their August poll. In that one, Sink led Scott by 40-26, with 17% going to Bud. Before that, all the way back in May, Sink had a 38-36 lead on Scott.
The Senate numbers yield much better results for Republicans (8/9-11 in parens):
Kendrick Meek (D): 23 (18)
Marco Rubio (R): 40 (38)
Charlie Crist (I): 28 (33)
Undecided: 9 (11)
(MoE: ±4%)
This is starting to look like an impossible needle for Charlie Crist to thread. Witness the roll out of Charlie Crist 9.0:
The new boiled down platform for an independent Crist? “Tax cuts? Hell yes,” Crist said. “Government in your bedroom? Hell no.”
Incoherency? Hell yes!
The Crist+Meek “Anti-Rubio” bloc is still at 51%… But now, Meek is consolidating the Dem base and eating away at what was Crist’s fragile electoral balance. In the mean time, Rubio is consolidating the GOP base and more Indies are either picking the Reep or the Dem. Perhaps Crist really is fading…
and maybe, MAYBE act as a spoiler for Meek, even though this is very unlikely to happen
I’m liking those Gov numbers though.
of Republicans with his: Scott 50% Sink 44%.
Where he failed was keeping some level of GOP support. When he left the GOP he seemed to move pretty far to the left. Maybe he was betting Greene would be the Dem nominee and Crist would eventually take his place.
Also, why did Crist think he had to be in the Senate this year? He is not that old. He would have been better off waiting to run again some other time. Now his career is finished.
He’s too progressive for Florida moderates, centrists and whatever Republicans Crist is still carrying. If Crist were to drop out, the majority from that group would probably go to Rubio who has been allowed to frame himself as a main stream Republican.
The only chance to keep Rubio out of the Senate would be Meek dropping out, and that looks not very likely.
If I was advising Crist I’d have him endorse Alex Sink for Governor and announce that he’d caucus with the GOP on the same day, preferably at the same presser.
I think Crist lost any foothold with Republicans because they think he’s surely to caucus with Democrats. Have him announce his preference is to caucus with Republicans and then see how the GOP reacts – would the flatly turn him down? If they did then they would be seen as leaving Crist, not the other way around. Also to counteract this move to the right, endorsing Sink I think would be a great move. Now of course she couldn’t return the endorsement as she’d endorse Meek, but most folks believe Sink is the better candidate than Scott so it would show Crist putting Florida first and would put Rubio on the spot as to whether he’d endorse Scott or not.
GOP – 38%
Democrat – 34%
Independent – 28%
Crist – 17/40/43 = 32%
Rubio – 83/7/40 = 45%
Meek – 0/53/17 = 23%
Crist – 17/90/57 = 53%
Rubio – 83/10/43 = 47%
Rubio – 95/17/60 = 59%
Meek – 5/83/40 = 41%
but Sink is a nice consolation prize; if nothing else, it gives us an “in” in Florida next redistricting.