Mason-Dixon for Las Vegas Review-Journal (9/20-22, likely voters, 9/7-9 in parentheses):
Harry Reid (D-inc): 43 (46)
Sharron Angle (R): 43 (44)
Scott Ashjian (T): 1 (-)
Tim Fasano (AIP): 1 (-)
NOTA: 4 (3)
Undecided: 8 (6)
Gubernatorial numbers, trendlines
Rory Reid (D): 37 (36)
Brian Sandoval (R): 51 (52)
Other: 3 (2)
NOTA: 2 (2)
Undecided: 7 (8)
(MoE: ±4%)
Is it safe to say that nothing new is going on in the Nevada races, at least according to Mason-Dixon? They see only a point or two of movement in each race.
Public Opinion Strategies (9/21-23, likely voters, no trendlines):
Harry Reid (D-inc): 45
Sharron Angle (R): 40
Scott Ashjian (T): 1
NOTA: 7
Undecided: 6Rory Reid (D): 39
Brian Sandoval (R): 45
Other: 2
NOTA: 9
Undecided: 4
(MoE: ±4.4%)
Instead, all the excitement seems to be surrounding this poll from the Republican internal pollster, POS (although thanks to lots of leaking from Jon Ralston, we all knew about it last Friday). I’m not sure on whose behalf POS polled the race, or whose partisan interest they’re serving by leaking these results, but at any rate they give Harry Reid one of the best results he had since the GOP primary, and even more interestingly, the first poll ever to have Rory Reid within single digits of Brian Sandoval. Is there dual Reid-mentum going on, or just a blip?
UPDATE: atdleft, in the comments, points out that the poll was on behalf of the Nevada Retail Association, who are probably more interested in taxation issues and aren’t likely to be interested in trying to spin the statewide race toplines.
decide to move to Nevada and run for Senate?
Running in races in two different states. What’s next, chalenge Orrin Hatch for the Senate in Utah in 2012? lol
But in all seriously this is the first time I have ever seen POS give us a good poll result. I don’t know what to make of that. To sum it up Reid is still up by a few points.
As for baby Reid, it’s just a blip for him.
(per the POS PDF, it was 16% in Feb, it’s now 1%)
which suggests that Angle (or Whitman or whomever) is crazy enough, so she has consolidated Tea Party support under her –ah– platform.
If it were just the NV-Sen numbers, I’d say it was real movement. I’ve been amazed that Angle has held on to this tie given the level of fire that has come her way over the countless weird things she has said. They must really hate Harry Reid for her to still be even. But with those Gov numbers – I don’t believe that; no other pollster has shown anything like it and I see no event that would have caused Jr. to pick up that much support, so I just think it’s an overly friendly Reid sample. Now if another pollster comes along and sees that sort of movement; well, then I’ll admit to being wrong, but right now the poll just looks like an outlier.
I still would bet on Reid winning this race, but to me it looks like a game of inches.
Their House polls paint a dire picture for Democrats yet their Senate numbers, here and in Colorado, have much more positive numbers for the incumbents than all other polling. Odd.
Paid for this poll. They’re mostly concerned about their own issues, but they also wanted to poll on the big races to see who they may be dealing with next year. Ralston mentioned it on Friday.
And btw, Meg Whitman is NOT running here… She’s next door. I don’t even see her ads here. (But please do NOT give her ideas!)
Democrat – 36%
GOP – 34%
Independent – 30%
Reid – 87/5/40 = 45%
Angle – 7/85/43 = 45%
Ashjian – 0/3/3 = 2%
Other – 2/3/5 = 3%
None – 4/4/9 = 5%
(My August projection had Angle up 47-46.)
Reid – 83/3/38 = 42%
Sandoval – 13/93/50 = 52%
Other – 1/1/4 = 2%
None – 3/3/8 = 4%
(I think I had Sandoval up 53-39 in August.)
But I’m pretty sure it can’t buy her spots on the ballot for two different offices in two different states.