SSP Daily Digest: 9/28

• AK-Sen: Daily Kos just added Scott McAdams to its Orange to Blue list, so if you’re still looking to throw some money in his direction, you can do so via Big Orange. Meanwhile, Lisa Murkowski is trying to gear up her write-in campaign, and with Ted Stevens having been laid to rest this week, she’s mulling whether to roll out those ads featuring Stevens that she had ready to go pre-primary but pulled because of his death. This can’t be good news for Murkowski, though: Rep. Don Young, more from the Murkowski/Stevens wing of the local GOP than the teabagger wing, is having a bout of self-preservation and is staying neutral, not endorsing anyone in the race. Finally, here’s one more page in Joe Miller’s ongoing saga of milking the system that he hates so darn much: when new to Alaska (but after he’d bought his expensive house and started working as an attorney), he obtained an indigent hunting/fishing license that required an income of less than $8,200/yr.

• DE-Sen: Christine O’Donnell says she attended Oxford. Oh, no, wait, she took a course from something called the Phoenix Institute that “rented space from” Oxford. Why am I not surprised?

• FL-Sen: I always figured that the early love affair between the local teabaggery and Marco Rubio wouldn’t last; he seemed more from the mainstream Jeb Bush camp and it seemed more a marriage of convenience based on his charisma but mostly on the fact that he wasn’t Charlie Crist. Anyway, he’s pretty much severed the relationship and making a break for the establishment with his latest revelation, that he decided several months ago against privatizing Social Security after concluding the idea “doesn’t work.” (If Ken Buck gets elected, I wonder how long it’ll take him to make the same move?)

• IL-Sen: The DSCC is keeping on pouring money into the Land of Lincoln, bolstering Alexi Giannoulias. They’re adding another $400K to the pile, for another week on the air.

• KY-Sen: The NRSC is taking the opposite tack, engaging in a little advertisus interruptus and pulling out for a week from Kentucky. (They claim they’re doing so from a position of strength, naturally.) Meanwhile, this is kind of small ball ($1,400 in contributions from three guys), but it’s still the kind of headline you probably don’t want to see if you’re Rand Paul, especially once you’ve made your feelings on the Civil Rights Act clear:

Conway camp calls on Paul to return money from white separatists

• NY-Sen-B: Marist (9/19-22, likely voters, 5/3-5 in parentheses):

Kirsten Gillibrand (D-inc): 52 (50)

Joe DioGuardi (R): 41 (30)

Undecided: 7 (20)

(MoE: ±4%)

Marist gives you a buffet of different numbers of choose from, as it’s 54-42 for Gillibrand when leaners are pushed, or it’s 55-36 when polling just registered voters (meaning there’s an enthusiasm gap worth 8 points here). They also find Chuck Schumer having no problems in the other Senate race, leading Jay Townsend 58-37 among LVs (and 63-32 among RVs).

• WI-Sen: Ron Johnson’s one act of political participation prior to this year — testifying before the state legislature in opposition to the bipartisan-supported Wisconsin Child Victims Act — is getting a second look in the press. His main interest in opposing the bill was that it could lead to corporations or other business entities being held liable for acts of employees, worried about the “economic havoc” it would create (and worried that those meddling “trial lawyers” would benefit). Think Progress has video of the testimony.

• WV-Sen: This seems like a new one to me… John Raese is actually paying people to write letters to the editor on his behalf. Not just offering them McCain Bucks that can’t be redeemed for anything in the real world, but running an actual contest giving money to people who get the most letters published. Also, I’ll give John Raese credit for being himself even when he’s being followed around by reporters. Here’s his reaction to finding out that the NRA endorsement went to Joe Manchin:

Raese speaks angrily into the phone, his words full of threat: “Tell them that I have an A plus rating with them, and that if they are fair they should include that. Tell them about the polling. Tell them I’m riding an elephant.” Raese pulls the cell phone away from his ear,  hands it back to Patrick the driver, and says “That has made it a lot harder.”

• CT-Gov: Little known fact: did you know that Jodi Rell still hasn’t endorsed Tom Foley yet, despite only weeks to go? Foley’s camp is saying it’s imminent, but it looks like Rell has summoned up even less enthusiasm in the general as she did for her Lt. Gov., Michael Fedele, in the GOP primary.

• FL-Gov: Here’s an interesting endorsement for Alex Sink: she got the backing of term-limited Republican state Sen. Alex Villalobos. Villalobos is also backing Charlie Crist (and even Dan Gelber in the AG race), so this exactly a sign of the Republican edifice collapsing, though.

• IA-Gov, SD-AL: Add one more to the long list of Dems who are getting a nice NRA endorsement as their box-of-Rice-a-Roni-and-can-of-Turtle-Wax-style parting gift on their way out the studio door. Chet Culver just got the backing of the gun lobby. (One state to the north, they also just backed Stephanie Herseth Sandlin today.)

• CA-44: PPP for Democrats.com (9/24-26, likely voters, no trendlines):

Bill Hedrick (D): 38

Ken Calvert (R-inc): 49

Undecided: 13

(n=760)

Despite being woefully underfunded, Bill Hedrick’s keeping the race competitive in his rematch against Ken Calvert (recall that he almost won, out of nowhere, in 2008). How he makes up that last 12 points in this climate, though, I’m not sure.

• FL-22: Harstad Research Group for Project New West (9/20-22, likely voters, no trendlines):

Ron Klein (D): 48

Allen West (R): 43

Undecided: 9

(n=504)

There’s lots of back-and-forth in the polling of the 22nd, with each side sporting their own internal with a lead in the last week. Dem pollster Harstad weighs in with another one going in Ron Klein’s column.

• KS-03: Moore money, Moore problems? Retiring Rep. Dennis Moore is still busy emptying out his campaign coffers, transferring $100K more to the Kansas Democratic party (on top of a previous $100K in June). That’s probably with the understanding that the money will be used to pay for their newest mailer in support of Stephene Moore, running to succeed her husband.

• NH-01, NH-02: American Research Group (9/22-26, likely voters, no trendlines):

Carol Shea-Porter (D-inc): 40

Frank Guinta (R): 50

Undecided: 8

Ann McLane Kuster (D): 36

Charlie Bass (R): 38

Undecided: 21

(MoE: ±5%)

Here are some unusual results from ARG! (although should we expect anything else?): they find Carol Shea-Porter getting keelhauled in the 1st, while the open seat battle in the 2nd is a swashbuckling battle (contrary to other polls we’ve seem of these races, where the 1st has been a tossup or a narrow CSP advantage while the 2nd has looked bad).

• PA-08: I’ve been patiently waiting here for actual toplines for more than a day, but it seems like they aren’t forthcoming… so I’ll just let you know there’s a Harstad Research Group poll (on behalf of SEIU and VoteVets, not the Patrick Murphy campaign) out in the 8th that gives Murphy a 3-point lead over Mike Fitzpatrick and an 8-point lead among voters who voted in 2006. It was taken Sept. 20-22.

• WI-07: Garin Hart Yang for Julie Lassa (9/26-27, likely voters, in parentheses):

Julie Lassa (D): 41

Sean Duffy (R): 42

Gary Kauther (I): 7

Undecided: 10

(MoE: ±4.4%)

I don’t know how good a sign this is, releasing an internal where you’re still trailing in a Democratic-leaning district. Lassa needs to let the donors know she’s still in this, I suppose.

• WV-03: Global Strategy Group for DCCC (9/23-26, likely voters, no trendlines):

Nick Rahall (D-inc): 55

Spike Maynard (R): 37

Undecided: 8

(MoE: ±4.8%)

Well, here’s one district where all the polls (even the one from AFF) are consistent in showing a nearly-20 point edge for long-time Dem Nick Rahall.

• NY-St. Sen.: Four polls from Siena of key New York State Senate races have, on the balance, bad news for the Democrats: Darrell Aubertine, the first Democrat in several geological epochs to hold SD-48 in the North Country, is trailing GOP opponent Pattie Ritchie for re-election, 48-45. Brian Foley, in Long Island-based SD-4, is also in a tough race, leading Lee Zeldin 44-43. Meanwhile, two Republican incumbents are looking fairly safe: Frank Padavan, who barely survived 2008 in Dem-leaning Queens-based SD-11, leads ex-city councilor Tony Avella 56-32, while in SD-44, Hugh Farley leads Susan Savage 55-37. (I’d rather see them poll the open seat races; that’s where the Republicans are at more risk.)

• Mayors: There aren’t a lot of big-city mayoral races where the decisive vote is in November (most were wrapped up in the primaries), but one interesting one is Louisville, where the longtime Dem incumbent Jerry Abramson is leaving in order to run for LG next year. Dem Greg Fischer (who you may remember from the 2008 Senate primary) is beating Republican city councilor Hal Heiner 48-42, according to SurveyUSA.

• DLCC: You probably saw yesterday that the DLCC is out with a first round of 20 “essential races” for controlling key state legislative chambers. Well, over in diaries, now they’re soliciting suggestions for further additions to the list, so please add some suggestions from races that are near and dear to your own hearts.

• SSP TV:

• CA-Sen: The Chamber of Commerce, trying to salvage this dwindling race, tries to hang the “career politician” tag on Barbara Boxer

• CO-Sen: The DSCC goes after Ken Buck on Social Security again

• CO-Sen: The NRSC runs an anti-Michael Bennet ad, hitting him on his support for health care reform

• DE-Sen: The DSCC crams as much Christine O’Donnell insanity as it can into 30 seconds

• IL-Sen: Mark Kirk goes back to where he began, with another bio spot of small town boy made good

• PA-Sen: Joe Sestak’s newest ad keeps on trying to tie Pat Toomey to Wall Street

• WV-Sen: The DSCC goes after John Raese for supporting eliminating the minimum wage and his own ooopses at his own company

• CT-Gov: The DGA hits Tom Foley on outsourcing in his former career as textile magnate

• MI-Gov: The RGA hits Virg Bernero on spending as mayor (OMG! he spent $1,277 on pencils!)

• NM-Gov: Another Susana Martinez attack ad hits Diane Denish for some bungled solar power thingamajig

• TX-Gov: Here’s a mindblowing stat: the DGA has never paid for advertising in Texas… until now. They’re out with an attack on Rick Perry, calling him what nobody wants to be called this cycle (“career politican”)

• KY-03: Todd Lally’s out with two ads, one a bio spot, the other a pretty funny attack on John Yarmuth using the K-Tel greatest hits album motif

• MI-07: Tim Walberg has to call on his mom for help: not to do any polling on his behalf, just to appear in an ad about Social Security

• NC-02: This was probably inevitable… AJS weighs into the 2nd with an ad using Bob Etheridge going apeshit on a poor innocent little tracker

• NC-11: Repent now or Jeff Miller will forever cast you into the fiery pits of Nancy Pelosi’s hell!

• ND-AL: Earl Pomeroy touts how well he cooperated with George W. Bush! (on Medicare Part D, though, which probably plays well among North Dakota’s aging population)

• PA-08: Outsourcing must be polling well for the Dems these days, as Patrick Murphy hits Mike Fitzpatrick on that

• VA-05: Indie candidate Jeff Clark scrounged up enough money to advertise? And he’s attacking GOPer Robert Hurt? That’s good enough for me

• Rasmussen:

• CT-Gov: Dan Malloy (D) 50%, Tom Foley (R) 40%

• WV-Sen: Joe Manchin (D) 46%, John Raese (R) 48%

• Fox/Pulse (aka Rasmussen):

• CO-Gov: John Hickenlooper (D) 44%, Dan Maes (R) 15%, Tom Tancredo (C) 34%

• CO-Sen: Michael Bennet (D-inc) 43%, Ken Buck (R) 47%

• IL-Gov: Pat Quinn (D-inc) 36%, Bill Brady (R) 46%, Rich Whitney (G) 8%

• IL-Sen: Alexi Giannoulias (D) 40%, Mark Kirk (R) 42%, LeAlan Jones (G) 7%

• OH-Gov: Ted Strickland (D-inc) 43%, John Kasich (R) 45%

• OH-Sen: Lee Fisher (D) 37%, Rob Portman (R) 50%

• WA-Sen: Patty Murray (D-inc) 48%, Dino Rossi (R) 47%

• WI-Gov: Tom Barrett (D) 45%, Scott Walker (R) 49%

• WI-Sen: Russ Feingold (D-inc) 44%, Ron Johnson (R) 52%

201 thoughts on “SSP Daily Digest: 9/28”

  2. yes, Dan Malloy gets the former employees of that textile mill that Tom Foley closed down to speak out against him. Pretty emotional ad, especially when one of the employees mentions that grown men were crying when they lost their jobs.

  3. The most undecided age group is surprisingly 18-29 year olds at 34%! They go 41-24 for Hedrick, but go 50-30 for Boxer, hopefully this group largely breaks for Hedrick, and may give him a fighting chance.

    I looking into this, it makes me feel this race could be won, because a lot of these youngsters will be voting for Prop 19, and are likely the single demographic that made this district an Obama district in 2008.

  4. I know we don’t get into presidential politics here but with Obama’s job approval sorta being a proxy for how the country feels about Democrats I found it interesting that he is back to 50% approval for the first time since April.

  6. …in the “Who can feature the oldest, most sympathy-vote getting Grandma in their ads?” sweepstakes. It seems like there has been a lot of dueling for the little-old-lady vote this cycle.

  7. …they are too long, way over 30 seconds, and they look like web videos only.  And I’ve never heard anything about Clark having any money.

  11.    Get him OFF!  GET HIM OFF!

      Last night I saw a commercial with Harold Ford and the Bush-era FCC chairman in a commercial for “Broadband for America.”  BfA is a corporate front group lobbying against Net Neutrality, although the commercial only had a feel-good message about “bipartisanship” with smiling black dudes.  No commercial has ever made me fling so many curses at the television, and I have endured political commercials in the Philly suburbs for years.  Sweet Jesus I hate Harold Ford.  

  12. I am interested in getting your thoughts on the IL Senate race. I know its Ras and numbers are harder to believe but this is very much a race of two very flawed candidates and is a true toss up with a very large number of undecided voters. It is like having the choice of getting gambling advice from Charles Barkley or Michael Jordan; not inspiring confidence in either. Winning this seat would rob the GOP of a “trophy seat” as I think NV and DE have/are moving away from them. This could also mean 5 or fewer losses.

    That said, IL is a very expensive state so does the DSCC move in and try and bail out Alexi? Getting that Chicago turnout is key to any chance that Alexi is going to have to keep Obama’s seat. You have to think that with a state this blue any uptick in voter turnout has to be a net benefit to Alexi. I know Brady is likely going to win but I see that as a vote against Blago. In the end I really think that Alexi is going to narrowly pull this out say 44-43 and the rest to 3rd party candidates but he is going to likely need Daley and/or Obama to stump for him the weekend before the race in Chicago. Unfortunately, I think that this is also going to take a good investment by the DSCC to ensure that this seat stays blue.  

  13. She’s out with a new poll, again commissioned jointly by her campaign and the NRCC, with her up 49-39. That this is dropped a day after Kosmas showed herself up 2 is probably not a coincidence.

    Elsewhere in NRCC polling, they have Andy Harris up 43-39 over Frank Kratovil, and Scott Rigell up 45-40 over Glenn Nye. I expected the opposite here: Adams to be barely up while Rigell and Harris, perceived as better challengers, were up comfortably.

    Link: http://blogs.cqpolitics.com/ey…

  14. Rassy makes it two polls in a row (from two different pollsters) showing Raese narrowly ahead. Any reason to believe they’re too bullish for Raese?

    Chris Cilizza last week that strategists and pollsters on both sides think Manchin was, as of last week, post-PPP, still ahead but only by single digits. I wonder if that still holds.  

  15. amazing about the SUSA Louisville numbers are that Fischer only started advertising for the general this week I believe. I just started seeing them this week anyway. I would compare this race to CA-Gov. Heiner has been spending a boatload on positive intro ads, great and really effective while Fischer has done none, yet Fischer still has the edge. He has actually gained ground, which surprised me greatly. I watched the debates last night and while Heiner did well and Fischer was a bit dull I would still say Fischer came out on top. Especially on gay rights. Heiner was asked about his position on gay marriage and he froze up and tried to give a non answer but admitted to being against it after the person asking the question pointed out he gave 20 grand to an anti gay group and voted against gay friendly legislation while on the council. His answer to why he gave 20 grand, well… they asked for it. He sounded like a pompous out of tough rich guy. It was priceless.  

  16. I actually think the only open seat the NY GOP will have trouble holding might be SD-40, if only bc Greg Ball might be a touch whacky (or a lot).

    As for incumbents, I can definitely see Aubertine falling, as he won’t have the benefit that Owens has of a Conservative Party challenger sucking GOP votes. Also upstate, I like Andrew Russo’s chances against Dave Valesky in SD-49. If you remember, Valesky only won the seat thanks to a Conservative Party challenger that stole a ton of Republican votes. Valesky won by just over 1k votes while only getting 44% of the vote, and then cruised in the Dem blowout years of 06 and 08, which were even more Dem in NY. On Long Island I also like Lee Zeldin’s chances. He is a good candidate and fits that district well, ran a respectable race against Bishop in 08 and he is going up against a freshman incumbent.

    Beyond that, I think Padavan is safe (as this poll shows) after his scare in 08. I’m not even sure why they polled Farley’s race. Two other freshmen Dems that might see trouble are Addabo in and Johnson, but both these areas have big Democratic registration advantages.

    One last interseting note is to see Obama underwater at 46-48 approval. Even in deep blue NY he may prove to be more of a hindrance than a help to Democrats chances.  

  17. Alaska- could a fraudulent fishing license potentially become a campaign issue?  Hands down this race is becoming the most interesting one.

    OTOH we don’t know what else Maher may have left remaining in his O’Donnell video archives.

  18.   She really cannot stop lying.  There is no reason to lie about attending Oxford.  Voters do not choose candidates by their college degree.  O’Donnell needs a therapist, not a senate seat.

  19. Wow how your talking about this poll you swear she was down 10-15 points. The poll basically stated that this race is tied and is a tossup because having a 1 point lead in a poll (even if it’s a internal) isn’t something to brag about. By that poll showing anyone (Lassa or Duffy) can win this one because results like that can change and switch because of a hollow lead the poll for Duffy, Lassa can make it up and win it by election day. I like to look at the poll showing Lassa up by 1 or 2 or even 20 but having a poll having Duffy up by just 1 isn’t nothing to cheer about for team red and Lassa is still in this (which is probally why she released this poll plus it’s good because we know alittle but about whats going on) and in my opinion she’ll retain this seat and beat Duffy. She’s not down by ver much and can mske it up with the month she has to go until election day.  

  20. Rasmussen sees Grassley well ahead of Conlin, but by a 55 percent to 37 percent margin. The Selzer poll for the Des Moines Register had Grassley ahead 61-30. Either way, it’s not good news for Conlin, but the potential down-ticket effects are different if Conlin can hold Grassley to 55-60 percent as opposed to his usual 65-70 percent.

    Selzer is very good, but she did miss the Iowa GOP gubernatorial primary–she had Branstad ahead of Vander Plaats 57 percent to 29 percent less than a week before Branstad won the primary 50-41. Her final Iowa poll from 2008 had Obama leading McCain by 17 or 18 points, and he ended up winning the state by 9.

  22. Congratulations, NRCC, you have one statistically significant lead in 7 polls.  Whoopee!  None of these change conventional wisdom at all.  Why release them?  Do we have this all wrong?  Is there no wave?

    FL-24

    Adams(R): 49%

    Kosmas(D): 39%

    MD-01

    Harris(R): 43%

    Kratovil(D): 39%

    VA-02

    Rigell(R): 45%

    Nye(D): 40%

    CO-03

    Salazar(D): 45%

    Tipton(R): 45%

    AZ-05

    Schweikert(R): 45%

    Mitchell(D): 44%

    OR-05

    Bruun(R): 45%

    Schrader(D): 44%

    AZ-01

    Gosar(R): 45%

    Kirkpatrick(D): 42%

  23. I would like to first apologize because i’m about to break the rules a bit because i’m going to ask a question rrelating a bit to policy and not elections. I’m asking this because I saw it flash on the local news this morning and I have to ask the question. On the morning news in Pittsburgh ABC’s afflicate they announced that WH Chief of Staff Rahm Emanuel is likely to step down from his current position in the WH. I don’t know why because I couldn’t hear the TV because my mom was talking to me so I thought someone here would know. Why is he leaving? is it because he wants to run for Mayor of Chicago as I heard people talking about? I know this dosen’t have to do with elections but it’s a question I would like answered. Plus I find it intrestring that alot of President Obama’s cabinet are gone or leaving including his economic advisor Larry Summers who’s leaving at the end of the year to go back to Harvard, not that i’m complaining about that for the obvious reason. Once again i’m sorry for breaking the rules but it’s a question i’m dying to have answered.

  24. Senate:  Toomey-45, Sestak-40.    Governor: Corbett-47, Onorato-40.

    Stange crosstabs.  Suffolk has 51% registered Democrats, 37% Republicans, and miscellaneous/independents participating in this poll.  Note that they asked voters “how are you REGISTERED?”  That perfectly aligns with statewide registration figures.

    80% (!) of the participants in the polls are over 45. Only 15% of the participants came from the Philly area.  I think that includes the Philly suburbs, but it is not clear in the memo.  Pennsylvania is not that old or rural.

    Bonus finding: GOP lead generic ballot 43-39.

    Sestak is creeping up on Toomey.  I thought Onorato was DOA, but he still has a slim chance since Corbett is nearly running as an incumbent.

  26. The one like the most is where she’s encouraging everyone to vote by mail…or else the Goblin King Rick Scott will be governor!

    Alex Sink for Governor

    The other one has the same message, but doesn’t mention Scott.

  30. Does anyone have a link to all the NRA PAC’s endorsements this year? I couldn’t find it on their website. I know they are backing Culver, but I also want to know which state legislators in Iowa they endorsed.

  32. Hers is all canned.  No heart whatsoever.  Offers nothing specific, just the sterile party line.

    Jerry Brown sounds rusty, but he picks up quick and he shows good heart and dedication.

    Whitman retorts by saying Brown is bought and paid for by special interests and unions.

    Brown retorts to that by saying “I won’t respond to that ab nauseum campaign message” and talks about how budget cuts must not be laid on the backs of the schools.

    All in all, Jerry Brown is very smart and ready.  Whitman is petty, a parrot, and would rather ding Brown than actually offer specific solutions.

  33.  Meg has just given off a very canned response to immigration and now Brown is responding to the claim that unions run his campaign. He seemed to do a good job addressing his frugality.

    Whitman also seemed to be criticizing that the state added 33,000 jobs recently. Also, she said something stupid by comparing Jerry Brown to Count Dracula. There is a chance this can come back to haunt her.  

  34. hadn’t recently visited PPP, they are doing a “Where do you want to poll this week” thing.

    CT, CO, NY, NV, FL, WA. All good choices … I am tempted to go with New York just because of the most recent polling, but would like to see Connecticut and especially Joe Lieberman numbers.

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