ME-Gov: Post-LePage Meltdown, Mitchell Ekes Out Lead

Critical Insights for Maine News Today (9/27, likely voters, 9/13 in parentheses):

Libby Mitchell (D): 30 (25)

Paul LePage (R): 29 (38)

Eliot Cutler (I): 9 (11)

Shawn Moody (I): 5 (4)

Kevin Scott (I): 0 (1)

Undecided: 26 (21)

(MoE: ±4.9%)

Last we heard from Paul LePage, he was busy letting us know he’d tell Barack Obama to go to hell, and before that, he was having a televised freakout on Sept. 14 when reporters pushed him about a sketchy homestead exemption for his wife. We had an inkling that all these shenanigans were starting to take a toll on LePage with a Libby Mitchell internal from last week showing her down 4 but more importantly showing LePage’s faves dropping from 33/19 to 38/36 since July… but dang, that’s a dramatic reversal of fortune in this race that seemed DOA for the Dems.

The massive flight of voters from LePage’s camp got split two ways: half to Mitchell, half to undecided, so anything’s still possible depending on what those undecideds do. I’m surprised that none gravitated toward Eliot Cutler, who had been touted as not just a spoiler but a possible victor. I’d initially expected Cutler to draw mostly on moderate GOPers unable to deal with the teabagging LePage, but he has seemed to draw on moderate Democrats instead. Now that LePage’s true colors seem to have finally been revealed, it’ll be interesting to see if Cutler starts gaining ground, or if he starts getting viewed primarily as spoiler and dwindles down into single-digit Chris Daggett-style territory.

14 thoughts on “ME-Gov: Post-LePage Meltdown, Mitchell Ekes Out Lead”

  1. Or have several races started to trend in our direction the last week? I understand that there is a case of shooting oneself in the head in this race, but still. Nv-sen, il-sen, pe-gov, ca-sen, ca-gov +++ are trending in the right direction. Or am i just picking up the things i want to see?

  2. then Mitchell’s upturn. Good, because LaPage is far-right Republican. I like moderate Republicans and could easily imagine supporting (financially) Mills or even Otten, but, surely, not LePage.

  3. They had some truly strange numbers out in PA, and their definition of a likely voter is pretty loose, if I recall (voter claims to have voted in 2008 and says they’ll likely vote this year; I thought most pollsters did it based on consecutive voting patterns or history of voting in midterms). And they seem only to poll for small local newspapers, leading me to believe they’re a bargain-basement pollster.

    I dunno. This could be accurate, but I’m skeptical until I see corroboration.

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