Poll Roundup: 10/12

Another fire hose blast of polls…

  • DE-Sen, DE-AL: Monmouth University (10/8-11, likely voters):

    Chris Coons (D): 57

    Christine O’Donnell (R): 38

    John Carney (D): 53

    Glen Urquhart (R): 44

    (MoE: ±3.5%)

    Magellan (10/10, likely voters):

    Chris Coons (D): 54

    Christine O’Donnell (R): 36

    Undecided: 7

    (MoE: ±3.3%)

  • FL-Sen: Public Policy Polling (10/9-10, likely voters, 8/21-22 in parens):
    Kendrick Meek (D): 21 (17)

    Marco Rubio (R): 44 (40)

    Charlie Crist (I): 33 (32)

    Undecided: 3 (8)

    Charlie Crist (I): 46

    Marco Rubio (R): 46

    Kendrick Meek (D): 41

    Marco Rubio (R): 48

    (MoE: ±4.6%)

  • IL-Sen, IL-Gov: Southern Illinois University (9/30-10/10, registered voters):

    Alexi Giannoulias (D): 37

    Mark Kirk (R): 37

    Pat Quinn (D): 30

    Bill Brady (R): 38

    (MoE: ±3.5%)

  • LA-Sen: Magellan (10/10, likely voters):

    Charlie Melancon (D): 35

    David Vitter (R-inc): 51

    Undecided: 9

    (MoE: ±2.9%)

  • WI-Sen, WI-Gov: Ipsos (10/9-11, likely voters):

    Russ Feingold (D-inc): 44

    Ron Johnson (R): 51

    Tom Barrett (D): 42

    Scott Walker (R): 52

    (MoE: ±4%)

  • WA-Sen: Elway (10/7-11, likely voters, 9/9-12 in parens):
    Patty Murray (D-inc): 55 (50)

    Dino Rossi (R): 40 (41)

    Undecided: 5 (9)

    (MoE: ±4.5%)

  • AZ-Gov: Behavior Research Center (10/1-10, registered voters, 6/30-7 in parens):

    Terry Goddard (D): 35 (25)

    Jan Brewer (R-inc): 38 (45)

    (MoE: ±4.2%)

  • FL-Gov: Quinnipiac (10/6-10, likely voters, 9/23-28 in parens):
    Alex Sink (D): 44 (43)

    Rick Scott (R): 45 (49)

    Undecided: 9 (7)

    (MoE: ±3%)

  • IA-Gov: Global Strategies Group (10/7-10, likely voters):

    Chet Culver (D-inc): 39

    Terry Branstad (R): 47

    Undecided: 9

    (MoE: ±4%)

  • MI-Gov: Baydoun Consulting/Foster McCollum White and Associates (10/7, likely voters):

    Virg Bernero (D): 37

    Rick Snyder (R): 50

    (MoE: ±2.1%)

  • OK-Gov: SoonerPoll.com (10/3-7, likely voters, July in parens):

    Jari Askins (D): 38 (40)

    Mary Fallin (R): 54 (46)

    (MoE: ±5.2%)

  • CA-11: SurveyUSA (10/8-11, likely voters, no trend lines):

    Jerry McNerney (D-inc): 42

    David Harmer (R): 48

    David Christiansen (AIP): 4

    Undecided: 5

    (MoE: ±4%)

  • IL-11: Anzalone Liszt for Debbie Halvorson (10/5-7, likely voters):

    Debbie Halvorson (D-inc): 41

    Adam Kinzinger (R): 45

    (MoE: ±4.4%)

  • TX-27: OnMessage Inc for Blake Farenthold (dates unknown, registered voters):

    Solomon Ortiz (D-inc): 36

    Blake Farenthold (R): 44

    Ed Mishou (L): 2

    (MoE: ±4.9%)

  • VA-05: SurveyUSA (10/8-11, likely voters):

    Random Digit Dialing:

    Tom Perriello (D-inc): 41

    Rob Hurt (R): 52

    Registration Based Sampling:

    Tom Perriello (D-inc): 39 (35)

    Rob Hurt (R): 56 (58)

    (MoE: ±4%)

  • 94 thoughts on “Poll Roundup: 10/12”

    1. What a story. I don’t understand how a pollster can just keep finding weird numbers – and now they acknowledge it too. What’s certain is that the 30% margin they found over the summer are now entirely discredited.

      The biggest “!!” among these numbers is undoubtedly Elway’s WA-Sen… Hard to know what to make of it, surely as good a poll as Dems have gotten in months in any state!

    2. Why did you only post the registered voters part of AZ-GOV poll? Brewer is comfy ahead among likely voters in poll. First indie poll of CA-11, for a change a SUSA poll that makes sense.

    3. I asked this in the last thread where this poll was mentioned and never got an answer: did they have a Spanish option? A poll in a Hispanic-majority district isn’t worth the paper it’s printed on if poll respondents can’t choose Spanish.

    4. anybody who has done recent phonebanking can tell you a flaw of going off phone numbers of registered voters. Most will not respond (notice how they never note how many numbers were called) and a lot of voters don’t put functioning/any phone numbers on their voter reg.

      Phone-polling is becoming less relevant these days.

    5. hoo! doggie, thems some stinky house no.’s. Each uglier than the last. McNerney down, Halvorson down in her own internal, Ortiz in trouble? For serious? Ortiz?  

    6. Winthrop University (741 likely voters, 10-5/10)

      Jim DeMint (started the recession) (R) 58

      Tom Clements (The Mean Green Machine) (G) 12

      Alvin Greene (is on the scene) (D) 11

      (PS: in 2014, can SC Dems at least avoid a one-on-one primary for the Senate, since their one-on-one Senate primaries tend to involve the more embarrassing candidate winning, while a 3-way primary would lead to the embarrassing candidate going to a runoff)

    7. I’d give my left nut (excuse my French) to see Brewer fall.  I can’t for the life of me understand how any self-respecting person would vote for that dunce.  This woman would have a hard time being taken seriously in a state house race where I live, let alone being taken as a serious candidate for government.

      The worst thing Obama ever did was raiding the Senate and governors’ offices for his administration.

      BTW, Baydoun Consulting/Foster McCollum White and Associates will be taking another poll they’ll release by the end of the week for the Michigan governors race that will cover a time period after our one and only gubernatorial debate.  I believe EPIC/MRA will also be posting one, this week to reflect the change after the debate.

    8. Is Meek dropping out?  Crist is making a major announcement tomorrow.

      Only other thing I can think of is an endorsement.  Has Bloomberg endorsed him yet?

    9. Tennessee 8

      D: Roy Herron, 37%

      R: Stephen Fincher, 47%

      Washington 3

      D: Denny Heck, 40%

      R: Jaime Herrera, 42%

      Arkansas 1

      D: Chad Causey, 34%

      R: Rick Crawford, 46%

      Wisconsin 5

      D: Julie Lassa, 35%

      R: Sean Duffy, 44%

      Illinois 10

      D: Dan Seals, 49%

      R: Robert Dold, 37%

      Hawaii 1

      D: Colleen Hanabusa, 41%

      R: Charles Djou, 45%

      Pennsylvania 7

      D: Bryan Lentz, 39%

      R: Patrick Meehan, 40%

      New Hampshire 2

      D: Ann Kuster, 42%

      R: Charlie Bass, 45%

      Michigan 1

      D: Gary McDowell, 39%

      R: Dan Benishek, 42%

      West Virginia 1

      D: Mike Oliverio, 42%

      R: David McKinley, 39%


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