Weekend Poll Round-up: House Edition

All the latest House polls in one place.

IL-09: Magellan for Joel Pollak (10/12, likely voters):

Jan Schakowsky (D-inc): 48

Joel Pollak (R): 30

(MoE: ±3%)

IL-10: We Ask America (10/15, likely voters):

Dan Seals (D): 39

Bob Dold (R): 50

Undecided: 11

(MoE: ±2.9%)

ME-01, ME-02: Critical Insights (10/10-11, likely voters, 9/27 in parens):

Chellie Pingree (D-inc): 48 (54)

Dean Scontras (R): 33 (36)

Mike Michaud (D-inc): 43 (44)

Jason Levesque (R): 30 (32)

(MoE: ±5.7%)

MN-01: SurveyUSA (10/12-14, likely voters):

Tim Walz (D-inc): 47

Randy Demmer (R): 42

Steven Wilson (IP): 4

Lars Johnson (I): 2

Undecided: 5

(MoE: ±4.1%)

MO-05: Pulse/Rasmussen for Jacob Turk (10/5, likely voters):

Emanuel Cleaver (D-inc): 52

Jacob Turk (R): 43

(MoE: ±4%)

NH-01, NH-02: University of New Hampshire (10/7-12, likely voters, September in parens):

Carol Shea-Porter (D-inc): 36 (39)

Frank Guinta (R): 48 (49)

(MoE: ±5.3%)

Ann McLane Kuster (D-inc): 43 (38)

Charlie Bass (R): 36 (43)

(MoE: ±5.1%)

PA-04: Public Opinion Strategies for Keith Rothfus (10/6-7, likely voters):

Jason Altmire (D-inc): 47

Keith Rothfus (R): 36

(MoE: ±5.7%)

PA-07: Franklin & Marshall College (10/5-11, likely voters):

Bryan Lentz (D): 31

Pat Meehan (R): 34

(MoE: ±4.9%)

PA-08: Monmouth University (10/11-13, likely voters):

Patrick Murphy (D-inc): 46

Mike Fitzpatrick (R): 51

(MoE: ±3.9%)

PA-10, PA-11: Critical Insights for the Times Leader (dates unspecified, likely voters):

Chris Carney (D-inc): 38

Tom Marino (R): 44

Paul Kanjorski (D-inc): 41

Lou Barletta (R): 43

(MoE: ±4.9%)

RI-01: Quest (10/4-6, likely voters, 9/15-17 in parens):

David Cicilline (D): 47 (49)

John Loughlin (R): 36 (26)

Undecided: 13 (25)

(MoE: ±6.2%)

SC-02: Anzalone Liszt Research (10/7-10, likely voters, 5/3-6 in parens):

Rob Miller (D): 39 (34)

Joe Wilson (R-inc): 46 (49)

(MoE: ±4.4%)

TN-04: Public Opinion Strategies for Scott DesJarlais (10/12 & 14, likely voters, 9/27-28 in parens):

Lincoln Davis (D-inc): 40 (42)

Scott DesJarlais (R): 45 (42)

(MoE: ±5.7%)

VA-09: SurveyUSA (10/11-13, likely voters, 9/27-29 in parens):

Rick Boucher (D-inc): 51 (53)

Morgan Griffith (R): 41 (38)

Jeremiah Heaton (I): 4 (5)

Undecided: 4 (4)

(MoE: ±4%)

WA-03: SurveyUSA (10/10-12, likely voters, 9/12-14 in parens):

Denny Heck (D): 42 (43)

Jaime Herrera (R): 53 (52)

Undecided: 6 (4)

(MoE: ±4.1%)

91 thoughts on “Weekend Poll Round-up: House Edition”

  1. is turning out to be one hell of a candidate.  If she can do this against the moderate and well-liked Bass this year, I would be very excited to see her make a Senate run in 2016.

  2. Especially TN-4, PA-8, MN-01, and IL-10. If this is what the election is going to look like, I’m going to need to accumulate a lot of hard liquor over the next few weeks. I keep waiting for polls to start shifting back slightly to us on the House front like they are in the Senate and Gubernatorial races, and I keep getting let down.

  3. Really bad numbers for Seals, Heck, Mayor Cicilline, and Reps. Davis, Murphy, Walz, Carney, and Shea-Porter.

    Cicilline, Walz, and (I believe) Davis and Carney should survive this, and that Seals poll looks like an outlier (important to note We Ask America has Republican ties and has produced rather Republican-friendly results in Illinois, but this is pretty extreme), but not a good day here.

  4. I have questions about this.

    “Frankly, we weren’t planning on polling this one at all.  Conventional wisdom gave Seals a solid name-recognition and political-experience advantage. But the GOP tide keeps rising in the Heartland, and Dold’s fund-raising numbers yesterday (he’s raised $800K+ this quarter and has a cool million in the bank) could mean that he’s peaking at exactly the right moment-so we moved it up the food chain.”

    Did We Ask America just throw this poll together in the course of a day or less?

  5. He seems uninspiring, while Herrera is young and hip. She’s run one hell of a campaign, and if it were a less liberal state, she’d be a contender for governorship or something higher in the near future. I have the feeling, though, the momentum is going to switch back to the Dems in Washington after this year.

  6. Because of We Ask America’s gloating over Bob Dold’s fundaraising, I decided to look at the race on FEC.gov. Fundraising totals are dubious predictions for election outcomes indeed, but I did find something interesting there.

    Dold has raised more individual contributions than Dan Seals as of Sept. 30, 2010 ($2,046,729 to $1,935,988), but Dold’s individual contributions are spotty between being from in-state and out of state. Seals’ individual contributions, on the other hand, are almost straight down the line from Illinois donors.

    For example, the first page of Dold’s list of individual contributions has 9 out of 20 contributions coming from out of state, while the first page of Seals’ list of individual contributions has 20 out of 20 coming from in state.

  7. When I was on the ground in NH a week ago, the local GOP was very worried about Guinta’s ability to seal the deal against CSP, and were more optimistic about Bass. I phonebanked for a few hours (all 1st district independents and soft Rs) and there were many Ayotte/Shea-Porter voters, probably because of Guinta’s bank account. So Guinta up 12, especially with Bass trailing, is a big shock to me.

    I do believe those UNH and ARG polls giving Ayotte a 15 point lead. People up there seem to genuinely like her, and she appears to be on her way to a 55%+ win.

  8. now goes to Keith Rothfus, who yes, wants to reminds us that he is still in the race down his own internals 11 to Altmire! Reality? (And sorry Raul Labrador and Blanche Lincoln)

  9. I know I keep harping on SUSA internals but once again they have me scratching my head. Not only does SUSA have Walz losing the under 35 vote 43-51 they also have under 35s making up only 11% of the electorate (compared to 18% in their recent statewide poll). MN-01 has a large college populations in Blue Earth, Winona and Nicollet counties, I just don’t think college kids are that apathetic.  

  10. … or those who have attended recently, Do any college students these days have a land line? It has to be just cell phones right? It’s been decades since I went to school so I really don’t know. I am trying to figure out how robo pollsters can come anywhere close to measuring young voters.

  11. NH-02, PA-11 and PA-07 have the best polls of the lot. And this is very important because shows a movement very logical and interesting.

    Many of the bluest districts with worse results until now are going to better. In the last days PA-07, PA-11, WI-07, WA-03 and NH-02 improves a lot. This is a very bad new for the republicans what wish a high advantage from the enthusiasm gap. That mean the democratic efforts are working against it. Still a lot of work for win this race but now they are hope.

    IL-10 and TN-04 have the worst polls of the lot.

    Pingree appear consistently better than Michaud in the polls. I think this is a interesting data too.

  12. Half the people I know in their 30s don’t even have landlines.  Even homeowners are dumping the things.

    The other big possible systematic error is using the “enthusiasm gap” to justify a sample with a big R component, while your “Independent” component is full of T’s, out of which about half identify as Independent despite their deep hatred of the Obama Party.  You should expect fewer “Republican” voters this year, not more.

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