U.S. Senate candidate Sharron Angle defended a series of campaign advertisements that use images of sullen, dark-skinned men and a map of Mexico to blast rival Sen. Harry Reid’s immigration record.
Angle, a tea party favorite who has rallied for stricter border enforcement, played down her usual conservative rhetoric in a brief discussion with a Hispanic high school group Friday in Las Vegas. The students asked her to explain her repeated use of TV spots denounced by national pro-immigrant and Hispanic organizations as race-baiting attacks.
“I think that you’re misinterpreting those commercials,” Angle is seen telling the students in a video of the private meeting obtained by The Associated Press.
“I’m not sure that those are Latinos in that commercial. What it is, is a fence and there are people coming across that fence. What we know is that our northern border is where the terrorists came through. That’s the most porous border that we have. We cannot allow terrorists, we cannot allow anyone to come across our border if we don’t know why they’re coming. So, we have to secure all of our borders and that’s what that was about, is border security.” […]
[Angle campaign spokesman Jarrod] Agen said one of the most criticized images, a still of three stony-faced Hispanic men, was bought from Getty Images Inc. The Getty caption notes that the image is of Mexican men in Mexico.
@BrnEyeSuss she told the Latino students at Rancho she thought they were Asian, LMAO #nvsen
27 minutes ago […]
LauraKMM
@
@BrnEyeSuss Talked to 2 pple who were there, Angle said the people in her anti-immigration ads aren’t Latino, LOL #nvsen
34 minutes ago
LauraKMM
So, yesterday Sharron Angle met w/the Hispanic Student Union @ Rancho HS, I hear it did NOT go well. She ended up fleeing the scene #nvsen
Thank gawd for Sharrontology continually inserting her feet in her mouth just when we need it… 😉
I’m a longtime reader and (very) occasional commenter, but by day I’m an election official, and am currently working on a pilot precinct reporting project for my state.
Our Secretary of the State’s office releases election results by town, but with cross-endorsements, presidential ballots, and absentees, as well as varying quality of data preserved by local officials, it’s near impossible to get good precinct information that will allow interested observers to make apples-to-apples comparisons of historical results. (Some people can probably guess which state it is I’m talking about already 🙂
So, a handful of towns will do a demo of online precinct reporting this year, and it will go well enough that my software or something like it gains widespread adoption in the future. The public-facing site will allow those interested to see and download results in total, by town / legislative district, and by precinct.
My question: as results come in on election night, often, absentee ballots and polling place returns are finished hours apart — leading to a challenge in reporting “live” results. As consumers of elections data, would you say it’s best to:
a) Treat absentee results as if they were their own districts for reporting purposes — so that my town with 15 polling places would show “x of 30 reporting” (though this would prevent turnout from being displayed alongside the results, as the fictional absentee districts don’t have registered voters)
b) Treat absentee results as a single precinct within each town — so that my town would show “x of 16 reporting”
c) Treat absentee and polling results for each precinct each as a portion of that precinct (say, 15% and 85%), so that if all the ABs were in and none of the polling place results, it would read “2.25 of 15 reporting”
d) Ignore the distinction between the two kinds of ballots, and show “15 of 15 reporting” even if, say, some absentees are outstanding
e) Don’t report anything until both data sources are in for each district
Ultimately, there’s not a huge amount at stake in which way the numbers are presented in the intermediate period between the closing of the polls and the certification of the results, but since the purpose of the project is to reinforce best practices in data reporting, I’d be interested in hearing what readers here think actually is the “best practice” in this regard.
NWOTSOTB, But I know it’s on broadcast tv. I believe this is the first time Grijalva has run an ad since his first election in 2002, but to be fair, his opponent in 2004 and 2008 was an open White supremacist who was disavowed by the Republican party.
While it’s always a bit stressful when a Democrat is running ads in a D+6 district, I’d rather have him on the air defining Ruth McClung (who probably won’t be able to afford defining herself) before he gets completely overwhelmed by 3rd party attack ads. I think this ad does what it needs to do, which is establish McClung as far too conservative for the average AZ-07 voter, no matter how they may (or may not) feel about Grijalva. Even if you buy the idea that Grijalva has seriously endangered himself with the boycott thing (which I don’t, but let’s ignore that), the major problem with envisioning a 112th Congress that contains Ruth McClung is that she’s running on a tea party platform very similar to that of Jesse Kelly. Joe Cao, or Jim Kolbe for that matter, she is not.
Klein over West in FL-22 and Garcia over Rivera in FL-25.
Can we see some polling in the Garcia/Rivera race already???
We’re a DIII school, so instead of everybody paying attention to the football game (which we lost 48-19 to the Merchant Marine Academy) we have panels on academic topics. Among the more well-attended panels was one on “Is Congress Broken?” moderated by the chair of our political science department. Martin Frost and Tom Reynolds were both on the panel along with Jim Kennedy (an alumnus and press secretary for Senators Lieberman and Clinton). They invited a few political science majors to meet the panelists beforehand, so I seized the chance. I can go into detail if anyone cares to know more…
1. Right-tilting Denver Post endorses Sen. Bennet.
This will be the first general election I will ever be voting in, and just spent around 2 hours analyzing every race on the ballot. Some choices were hard to make, but after finding information on the internet, some were easy calls. One was a website by a crazy evangelical christian, and viewing her recommendations and commentary for local issues made a lot of these choices easier to make.
But one thing stuck out to me that gives me hope about Bill Hedrick. She listed all the congressional races in Orange County, she of course endorsed all republicans in those races, except one. In CA-44, she had no recommendation, citing Ken Calvert’s earmarks for personal gains issues that have been sticking to him lately. If this crazy old woman was willing to recommend NO ONE in that race, conservatives who are discontent will Calvert may leave their ballot blank. I am hoping there is a surprise at the end of the night on November 2nd that will have the pundits go crazy.
The site is pretty funny, it’s exactly what I expected from a person like this, capitalizing words like LIBERAL and CONSERVATIVE. Here it is, enjoy the crazy. http://www.nancyspicks.com
is this a race we’re concerned about? wasn’t even on my radar.
The unapologetically conservative Detroit News has made it’s endorsement in races in Michigan, and they endorsed the GOP candidates for governor, SoS, AG, 9th District (birther Raczkowski), 7th District (birther Walberg), 3rd District (Extreme conservative Justin Amash over centrist Dem Pat Miles), and 1st District (Tea Party surgeon). They also endorsed the two GOP Supreme Court candidates. The only ones where they endorsed Democrats were in the in consequential 13th (Detroit) and 15th (Dingell) where Dems were going to win, anyway.
The left-leaning (though less than the News leans right, as usual of politics in this country) Detroit Free Press is endorsing Gary McDowell (1st), Pat Miles (3rd), Mark Schauer (7th), Gary Peters (9th), Hansen (13th), and John Dingell (15th). The split the ticket in endorsing GOP Bill Huizenga (2nd), and then pretty much endorse every other Republican incumbent already in House from Michigan who are assured wins (Dave Camp, Fred Upton and Candice Miller).
I don’t believe they made endorsements for state-wide office, yet.
and I am almost done with the major polling study I was doing.
The race in AL-02 has certainly changed. This summer, Bright probably led around 20-25 points. As Martha Roby has introduced herself, she has closed the gap. From the feel of the locals, I expect Bright to win now by 3-5.
Roby should take Elmore and Autauga County quite convincingly. She needs to win more than 65% of the vote here to win districtwide. She should also win Southern Wiregrass. Bright should take the Black Belt, and some of the Middle Wiregrass Region. A bellwether is Crenshaw County, where Bright just barely won against Jay Love in 2008..
In 2008, Bright lost the yellow areas on the map below by 100 to 200 votes. He probably needs to flip half of them because the margins in Montgomery will go down a bit with no Obama on the ballot this year.
Washoe County (Reno) is out with their breakdown of early voting day 1.
This is Sharon Angles home turf and she is expected to carry the county but Democrats dominated the early voting in 2008 and registrations are split almost evenly between Democrats and Republicans. More republicans actually cast their votes on day 1 this year (1964) than in 2008 (1668). On the other hand Day 1 Democratic votes are down from 3909 to 1733. Could be a 1 day blip caused by teabaggers wanting to send an early message but it looks like an enthusiasm gap to me.
BTW Clark County (Vegas) will release their day 1 numbers later tonight.
Whether the debate affects the outcome — I believe very few Nevadans are undecided — it also perfectly encapsulated the race: An aging senator who has mastered the inside political game but fundamentally does not seem to care about his public role (and is terrible at it) versus an ever-smiling political climber who can deliver message points but sometimes changes her message or denies a previous one even existed.
Look upon these works, ye mighty, and despair.
As I watched the debate, I felt all the years that Nevada has striven to surmount its seamy image fading away as the nation watched this sad spectacle. As Slate’s John Dickerson wryly put it on Twitter: “After watching the Nevada Senate debate I really wish that what happens in Vegas could stay in Vegas.”
There are 2 D polls of the district, that he gives .37 and .35 weights respectively. There are 4 R polls of the district, that he gives .08, .05, .03, and .00 weights, respectively. (I think the .00 is due in part to poll age.)
It does not add to 1.00, I’m thinking because of the weights given to various prognosticators.
In addition, note the MoE given to the projected result — in this case, it’s +/- 8% (presumably in the 2 sigma 95% confidence band). Just browsing a bit, that MoE is typical – I see numbers from +/- 7-10%.
I think that’s reflected in the results, where (eyeballing) a net 25 (or 70) seat loss is still within about one sigma of probability.
It’s good to see Clinton on the campaign trail for Dems everywhere.
I know some people were wondering why one of the NRCC’s first targets was NC-07. I think I figured it out. Under the NRCC’s mentor program, Pete Session’s is Ilario Pantano’s mentor.
I normally don’t accept media analysis on debates as necessarily jibing with public opinion, but since most voters don’t actually watch campaign debates except for the Presidential ones, media spin can matter more. We’ll see if the state media in CO has the same take as Hotline On Call; Colorado journalists’ take is what matters, not the Beltway media take.
Hard not to take this as even more good news; between Rassy showing Bennet closing into tossup territory and this debate story, it’s a good weekend in CO-Sen for Team Blue.
I figured this might happen – Tom DiNapoli’s really only popular with the hardcore, rank-and-file Dem base. I know any polling on this has had DiNapoli up double-digits, but I suspect that’ll turn around fast now. Wouldn’t surprise me if the GOP could score wins in this and the Attorney General race (where Schneiderman’s already in trouble), even if Cuomo/Schumer/Gillibrand win huge.
I was just thinking back to one of my early diaries this cycle wherein I was lambasted by several commenters for suggesting that Dems would lose OK-GOV. Those were the days…
I love how Meteor Blades posts a column on the loss of blue dogs in the next Congress, and then proceeds to say that 13 Blue Dogs are probably going down to defeat.
Only problem? 7 of those Democrats could very much win. And like 5 are up by more than 6 points in the last couple of polls.
I wonder where Meteor Blades gets his news…or if he’s trying to continue the myth that Blue Dogs have a bad chance of winning because they opposed the popular progressive bills. (public option etc..)
the KY Senate debate. It’s no CSPAN, worth a watch.
three stone-faced Mexican guys (labeled “illegal aliens” in the commercial) are really Latino. Then she tries to diffuse from a question asking why are the “illegal immigrants” in her commercial Latino by saying that it’s not just about our southern border, it’s our northern border too.
– Paladino’s at a dreadful 11/43 favorable. More fascinating, more voters are are “undecided/don’t know” on Cuomo than they are on him.
– 53% don’t think the Democratic Party has “too much power” in NYS. A devastating find for GOP-ers downballot, including Donovan and Wilson, who would probably lose by a 53-47 margin.
– 64% support gay marriage and/or civil unions.
– A plurality believes taxes will go up under Paladino, but “stay the same” under Cuomo.
One BIG caveat to this poll, though – their voter model is 44D/30I/17R (and 58 Obama/26 McCain, undersampling O by only 5, while undersampling M by 10…no sense in this cycle). That’s a massive under-sampling of Republicans, who are probably poised to make-up about 30% of the electorate here. The Indie number should be closer to 20%, and the Democrat # should be in the high-40s. Tinker with their projection and you probably find Cuomo up by more like 27%, which better-fits with most other polling.
Cornyn said he expects Angle and McMahon (???) to win. They didn’t give McCaskill reaction, if there was one, to CT, but she did label Nevada as a “tough race.”
McCaskill then predicted Conway would win in Kentucky and said that Carnahan still has a shot in her home state. McCaskill will certainly be watching where Carnahan makes inroads this year as she gets ready for her own tough re-election fight in 2 years.
relative to the last midterm:
Democrats performed yesterday as well as they did on the first day in 2006 (47.0 in ’06 compared to 47.2 in ’10) and the GOP performed worse yesterday than they did in ’06 (39.2% in ’06 compared to 38% in ’10). So, GOP is actually performing worse as a share than they did in the last midterm for day 1 even though they outperformed registration. And their performance is not so far changing the composition of the electorate.
I live in SF, but could not attend the rally because the Caltrain doesn’t really run that late on the weekend, and I would love to watch this live.
Leonard Lance is at all in danger? I don’t know much about New Jersey and the history of the district but that is a district he only got 51% of the vote and Obama won the district. So in theory he should be somewhat in danger but everybody thinks he is completely safe, how come?
Just watched the ten pm news. Judging from their coverage I would say Conway won. The coverage looked much more positive for Conway than Paul. The handshake thing will probably help Conway a lot. This was on the local fox affiliate which tends to lean right (The President has these little segments called “point of view” where he spews a bunch of right wing talking points).
Folks here keep slighting Reid for his debate performance. I think Reid knows what his and Angle’s numbers are going to be on Nov. 2nd. Either he knows he’s gonna win or he knows he’s gonna lose. I think he’s in “no drama” mode because the margin is so close. I happen to think he knows he’s gonna win.
The DCCC is spending $63,000 dollars in AZ-07 for Raul Grijalva
Six Democratic candidates had less than $1 million to spend in October — Indiana Rep. Brad Ellsworth ($835,000), Elaine Marshall in North Carolina ($800,000), Rep. Paul Hodes in New Hampshire ($546,000), Florida Rep. Kendrick Meek, ($415,000), Scott McAdams in Alaska ($398,177) and Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher in Ohio ($367,000) – firmly cementing their underdog status.
McAdams I’m not that worried about, Alaska’s a super duper cheap state to advertise in, Elaine Marshall’s fund raising is a respectable showing….if it happened a few quarters ago, Fisher, stick a fork in him he’s done. Meek, its all about ginning up AA turnout for Sink at this point.
Wait…what’s that sound I hear? Ah, yes, the sounds of Lisa Murkowski wailing out “muhahahahahahaha!”
West is a disgraced ex-officer.
Rivera is a little unsteady.
Why, is this a surprise? Is the Miami Herald right-leaindg?
I think FL-25 would be a nice steal for the Democrats this cycle, and Rivera is a weak enough candidate it’s not outside the realm of possibility. Nate Silver is pretty bearish on the Democrats’ odds of flipping House seats that aren’t The Four (HI-01, LA-02, DE-AL, and IL-10), but I think FL-25, CA-03, and WA-08 are certainly in play.
Lawl. And newspapers wonder why nobody reads them anymore
My guess is a DCCC internal found him in a slightly weaker position than they expected, so they went in with a small ad buy to scare off any potential investment, sort of a preemptive signal the district is defended.
Even more ping-pong today. I guess Angle didn’t get to enjoy that “win” for very long…
From WaPo:
And Nevada’s Latin@ communities aren’t liking this. From a friend who spoke with eyewitnesses…
Thank gawd for Sharrontology continually inserting her feet in her mouth just when we need it… 😉
I’m a longtime reader and (very) occasional commenter, but by day I’m an election official, and am currently working on a pilot precinct reporting project for my state.
Our Secretary of the State’s office releases election results by town, but with cross-endorsements, presidential ballots, and absentees, as well as varying quality of data preserved by local officials, it’s near impossible to get good precinct information that will allow interested observers to make apples-to-apples comparisons of historical results. (Some people can probably guess which state it is I’m talking about already 🙂
So, a handful of towns will do a demo of online precinct reporting this year, and it will go well enough that my software or something like it gains widespread adoption in the future. The public-facing site will allow those interested to see and download results in total, by town / legislative district, and by precinct.
My question: as results come in on election night, often, absentee ballots and polling place returns are finished hours apart — leading to a challenge in reporting “live” results. As consumers of elections data, would you say it’s best to:
a) Treat absentee results as if they were their own districts for reporting purposes — so that my town with 15 polling places would show “x of 30 reporting” (though this would prevent turnout from being displayed alongside the results, as the fictional absentee districts don’t have registered voters)
b) Treat absentee results as a single precinct within each town — so that my town would show “x of 16 reporting”
c) Treat absentee and polling results for each precinct each as a portion of that precinct (say, 15% and 85%), so that if all the ABs were in and none of the polling place results, it would read “2.25 of 15 reporting”
d) Ignore the distinction between the two kinds of ballots, and show “15 of 15 reporting” even if, say, some absentees are outstanding
e) Don’t report anything until both data sources are in for each district
Ultimately, there’s not a huge amount at stake in which way the numbers are presented in the intermediate period between the closing of the polls and the certification of the results, but since the purpose of the project is to reinforce best practices in data reporting, I’d be interested in hearing what readers here think actually is the “best practice” in this regard.
NWOTSOTB, But I know it’s on broadcast tv. I believe this is the first time Grijalva has run an ad since his first election in 2002, but to be fair, his opponent in 2004 and 2008 was an open White supremacist who was disavowed by the Republican party.
While it’s always a bit stressful when a Democrat is running ads in a D+6 district, I’d rather have him on the air defining Ruth McClung (who probably won’t be able to afford defining herself) before he gets completely overwhelmed by 3rd party attack ads. I think this ad does what it needs to do, which is establish McClung as far too conservative for the average AZ-07 voter, no matter how they may (or may not) feel about Grijalva. Even if you buy the idea that Grijalva has seriously endangered himself with the boycott thing (which I don’t, but let’s ignore that), the major problem with envisioning a 112th Congress that contains Ruth McClung is that she’s running on a tea party platform very similar to that of Jesse Kelly. Joe Cao, or Jim Kolbe for that matter, she is not.
Klein over West in FL-22 and Garcia over Rivera in FL-25.
http://www.miamiherald.com/201…
Can we see some polling in the Garcia/Rivera race already???
We’re a DIII school, so instead of everybody paying attention to the football game (which we lost 48-19 to the Merchant Marine Academy) we have panels on academic topics. Among the more well-attended panels was one on “Is Congress Broken?” moderated by the chair of our political science department. Martin Frost and Tom Reynolds were both on the panel along with Jim Kennedy (an alumnus and press secretary for Senators Lieberman and Clinton). They invited a few political science majors to meet the panelists beforehand, so I seized the chance. I can go into detail if anyone cares to know more…
1. Right-tilting Denver Post endorses Sen. Bennet.
http://www.denverpost.com/opin…
2. Maes’ spotty fiscal record is making Republicans more loathing of him.
http://www.denverpost.com/news…
This will be the first general election I will ever be voting in, and just spent around 2 hours analyzing every race on the ballot. Some choices were hard to make, but after finding information on the internet, some were easy calls. One was a website by a crazy evangelical christian, and viewing her recommendations and commentary for local issues made a lot of these choices easier to make.
But one thing stuck out to me that gives me hope about Bill Hedrick. She listed all the congressional races in Orange County, she of course endorsed all republicans in those races, except one. In CA-44, she had no recommendation, citing Ken Calvert’s earmarks for personal gains issues that have been sticking to him lately. If this crazy old woman was willing to recommend NO ONE in that race, conservatives who are discontent will Calvert may leave their ballot blank. I am hoping there is a surprise at the end of the night on November 2nd that will have the pundits go crazy.
The site is pretty funny, it’s exactly what I expected from a person like this, capitalizing words like LIBERAL and CONSERVATIVE. Here it is, enjoy the crazy. http://www.nancyspicks.com
http://politicalwire.com/archi…
http://query.nictusa.com/cgi-b…
http://dccc.org/media/andy_vid…
is this a race we’re concerned about? wasn’t even on my radar.
The unapologetically conservative Detroit News has made it’s endorsement in races in Michigan, and they endorsed the GOP candidates for governor, SoS, AG, 9th District (birther Raczkowski), 7th District (birther Walberg), 3rd District (Extreme conservative Justin Amash over centrist Dem Pat Miles), and 1st District (Tea Party surgeon). They also endorsed the two GOP Supreme Court candidates. The only ones where they endorsed Democrats were in the in consequential 13th (Detroit) and 15th (Dingell) where Dems were going to win, anyway.
The left-leaning (though less than the News leans right, as usual of politics in this country) Detroit Free Press is endorsing Gary McDowell (1st), Pat Miles (3rd), Mark Schauer (7th), Gary Peters (9th), Hansen (13th), and John Dingell (15th). The split the ticket in endorsing GOP Bill Huizenga (2nd), and then pretty much endorse every other Republican incumbent already in House from Michigan who are assured wins (Dave Camp, Fred Upton and Candice Miller).
I don’t believe they made endorsements for state-wide office, yet.
and I am almost done with the major polling study I was doing.
The race in AL-02 has certainly changed. This summer, Bright probably led around 20-25 points. As Martha Roby has introduced herself, she has closed the gap. From the feel of the locals, I expect Bright to win now by 3-5.
Roby should take Elmore and Autauga County quite convincingly. She needs to win more than 65% of the vote here to win districtwide. She should also win Southern Wiregrass. Bright should take the Black Belt, and some of the Middle Wiregrass Region. A bellwether is Crenshaw County, where Bright just barely won against Jay Love in 2008..
In 2008, Bright lost the yellow areas on the map below by 100 to 200 votes. He probably needs to flip half of them because the margins in Montgomery will go down a bit with no Obama on the ballot this year.
Washoe County (Reno) is out with their breakdown of early voting day 1.
http://www.co.washoe.nv.us/vot…
Dems 1733 (40.63)
Reps 1964 (46.04)
Other 569 (13.34)
This is Sharon Angles home turf and she is expected to carry the county but Democrats dominated the early voting in 2008 and registrations are split almost evenly between Democrats and Republicans. More republicans actually cast their votes on day 1 this year (1964) than in 2008 (1668). On the other hand Day 1 Democratic votes are down from 3909 to 1733. Could be a 1 day blip caused by teabaggers wanting to send an early message but it looks like an enthusiasm gap to me.
BTW Clark County (Vegas) will release their day 1 numbers later tonight.
I just took one example that he had at 50%, IA-03
http://elections.nytimes.com/2…
There are 2 D polls of the district, that he gives .37 and .35 weights respectively. There are 4 R polls of the district, that he gives .08, .05, .03, and .00 weights, respectively. (I think the .00 is due in part to poll age.)
It does not add to 1.00, I’m thinking because of the weights given to various prognosticators.
In addition, note the MoE given to the projected result — in this case, it’s +/- 8% (presumably in the 2 sigma 95% confidence band). Just browsing a bit, that MoE is typical – I see numbers from +/- 7-10%.
I think that’s reflected in the results, where (eyeballing) a net 25 (or 70) seat loss is still within about one sigma of probability.
It’s good to see Clinton on the campaign trail for Dems everywhere.
http://blogs.cqpolitics.com/ey…
I know some people were wondering why one of the NRCC’s first targets was NC-07. I think I figured it out. Under the NRCC’s mentor program, Pete Session’s is Ilario Pantano’s mentor.
Here’s the story:
http://hotlineoncall.nationalj…
I normally don’t accept media analysis on debates as necessarily jibing with public opinion, but since most voters don’t actually watch campaign debates except for the Presidential ones, media spin can matter more. We’ll see if the state media in CO has the same take as Hotline On Call; Colorado journalists’ take is what matters, not the Beltway media take.
Hard not to take this as even more good news; between Rassy showing Bennet closing into tossup territory and this debate story, it’s a good weekend in CO-Sen for Team Blue.
Herald Leader endorses Jack Conway.
http://www.kentucky.com/2010/1…
http://www.nydailynews.com/blo…
I figured this might happen – Tom DiNapoli’s really only popular with the hardcore, rank-and-file Dem base. I know any polling on this has had DiNapoli up double-digits, but I suspect that’ll turn around fast now. Wouldn’t surprise me if the GOP could score wins in this and the Attorney General race (where Schneiderman’s already in trouble), even if Cuomo/Schumer/Gillibrand win huge.
I was just thinking back to one of my early diaries this cycle wherein I was lambasted by several commenters for suggesting that Dems would lose OK-GOV. Those were the days…
http://www.rasmussenreports.co…
Sen. Daniel Inouye (D) – 53%
Cam Cavasso (R) – 40%
Shockingly bad numbers for Inouye, although he still leads by a lot and it is a Rasmussen poll.
Thoughts? Time for President Obama to visit Hawaii, that’s what I think.
Makes you think their Hawaii GUV numbers are also heavily slanted for the GOP.
Said accidentally we could pay for tax cuts by growing the government
And something about buyer’s remorse for a rape case.
http://www.politico.com/news/s…
http://www.dailysparkstribune….
Most surprising endorsement so far is from the Elko Daily Free Press, a right-leaning newspaper in rural, mine-dominated Nevada.
http://www.businessweek.com/ap…
I love how Meteor Blades posts a column on the loss of blue dogs in the next Congress, and then proceeds to say that 13 Blue Dogs are probably going down to defeat.
Only problem? 7 of those Democrats could very much win. And like 5 are up by more than 6 points in the last couple of polls.
I wonder where Meteor Blades gets his news…or if he’s trying to continue the myth that Blue Dogs have a bad chance of winning because they opposed the popular progressive bills. (public option etc..)
http://www.dailykos.com/story/…
the KY Senate debate. It’s no CSPAN, worth a watch.
three stone-faced Mexican guys (labeled “illegal aliens” in the commercial) are really Latino. Then she tries to diffuse from a question asking why are the “illegal immigrants” in her commercial Latino by saying that it’s not just about our southern border, it’s our northern border too.
They have the video of this at the link here:
http://www.lasvegassun.com/blo…
http://graphics8.nytimes.com/p…
Key notes…
– Paladino’s at a dreadful 11/43 favorable. More fascinating, more voters are are “undecided/don’t know” on Cuomo than they are on him.
– 53% don’t think the Democratic Party has “too much power” in NYS. A devastating find for GOP-ers downballot, including Donovan and Wilson, who would probably lose by a 53-47 margin.
– 64% support gay marriage and/or civil unions.
– A plurality believes taxes will go up under Paladino, but “stay the same” under Cuomo.
One BIG caveat to this poll, though – their voter model is 44D/30I/17R (and 58 Obama/26 McCain, undersampling O by only 5, while undersampling M by 10…no sense in this cycle). That’s a massive under-sampling of Republicans, who are probably poised to make-up about 30% of the electorate here. The Indie number should be closer to 20%, and the Democrat # should be in the high-40s. Tinker with their projection and you probably find Cuomo up by more like 27%, which better-fits with most other polling.
Cornyn said he expects Angle and McMahon (???) to win. They didn’t give McCaskill reaction, if there was one, to CT, but she did label Nevada as a “tough race.”
McCaskill then predicted Conway would win in Kentucky and said that Carnahan still has a shot in her home state. McCaskill will certainly be watching where Carnahan makes inroads this year as she gets ready for her own tough re-election fight in 2 years.
relative to the last midterm:
http://www.lasvegassun.com/blo…
I live in SF, but could not attend the rally because the Caltrain doesn’t really run that late on the weekend, and I would love to watch this live.
Leonard Lance is at all in danger? I don’t know much about New Jersey and the history of the district but that is a district he only got 51% of the vote and Obama won the district. So in theory he should be somewhat in danger but everybody thinks he is completely safe, how come?
Just watched the ten pm news. Judging from their coverage I would say Conway won. The coverage looked much more positive for Conway than Paul. The handshake thing will probably help Conway a lot. This was on the local fox affiliate which tends to lean right (The President has these little segments called “point of view” where he spews a bunch of right wing talking points).
Folks here keep slighting Reid for his debate performance. I think Reid knows what his and Angle’s numbers are going to be on Nov. 2nd. Either he knows he’s gonna win or he knows he’s gonna lose. I think he’s in “no drama” mode because the margin is so close. I happen to think he knows he’s gonna win.
The DCCC is spending $63,000 dollars in AZ-07 for Raul Grijalva
http://blogs.cqpolitics.com/ey…
more fundraising reports on the senate front.
Read more: http://www.politico.com/news/s…
McAdams I’m not that worried about, Alaska’s a super duper cheap state to advertise in, Elaine Marshall’s fund raising is a respectable showing….if it happened a few quarters ago, Fisher, stick a fork in him he’s done. Meek, its all about ginning up AA turnout for Sink at this point.
Mller’s bodyguards handcuff editor of Alaska Dispatch during a town hall: http://www.alaskadispatch.com/…
http://www.adn.com/2010/10/17/…
Wait…what’s that sound I hear? Ah, yes, the sounds of Lisa Murkowski wailing out “muhahahahahahaha!”
West is a disgraced ex-officer.
Rivera is a little unsteady.
Why, is this a surprise? Is the Miami Herald right-leaindg?
I think FL-25 would be a nice steal for the Democrats this cycle, and Rivera is a weak enough candidate it’s not outside the realm of possibility. Nate Silver is pretty bearish on the Democrats’ odds of flipping House seats that aren’t The Four (HI-01, LA-02, DE-AL, and IL-10), but I think FL-25, CA-03, and WA-08 are certainly in play.
Lawl. And newspapers wonder why nobody reads them anymore
out with a response ad.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v…
My guess is a DCCC internal found him in a slightly weaker position than they expected, so they went in with a small ad buy to scare off any potential investment, sort of a preemptive signal the district is defended.