So, I’ve previously posted maps featuring 2 minority-majority seats in South Carolina and 6 minority-majority seats in Georgia. In the meantime, I’ve been working on maps designed to maximize majority-minority seats in the rest of the South (excluding Florida & Texas, for now).
I’ve decided to go ahead and post the maps that I’ve settled on for Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, and Arkansas below. I’ve managed to create 2 reasonably compact majority-minority seats for each state except Arkansas, where I’ve created 1 (more would be impossible). I haven’t marked district numbers, but rather have marked the minority percentage on the relevant districts.
For the record, it seems impossible to create 2 minority-majority seats in Tennessee (at least not with any semblance of compactness). The Memphis area seat is as good as it gets.
Anyhow, the maps are after the fold!
For Alabama, one district is a Birmingham based seat and the other is a Mobile to Montgomery seat.
With Mississippi, one seat is a Jackson based seat and the other covers the rural Mississippi River valley.
In Louisiana, I have the New Orleans based seat (which obviously has to pick up substantial geographic area since the state is losing a seat) and the other pulls together Baton Rouge, Lafayette, and Alexandria.
Finally, for Arkansas, I have a district that covers minority communities in Little Rock, Pine Bluff, the southwest corner of the state, and along the Mississippi.
I have no idea what VRA interpretation the DOJ will pursue in this round of redistricting (much less the DC Circuit), but for what it’s worth, these are the types of maps that I would propose for these states were it up to me. I think maximizing the number of (compact) minority-majority seats (particularly in the Deep South) is far preferable to the ultra-packed minority seats that currently predominate. And, I think it’s more consistent with the objectives of the VRA.
Whether the DOJ sees things my way is another matter.
I personally think that a second seat in AL is the most needed of these. The LA map is amazing. No Z’s needed here.
is that those 50% and change black districts would not be solid Democratic seats. I would be all for that, but a variety of groups (not least many black lawmakers) would likely be quite opposed.
I admit that it would be funny for LA to be forced to add another D-leaning seat–creating a net R – 2.
these are great maps. I also do not know what the DOJ will do and am sure as to whether we will see a change of policy on VRA creation of minority majority seats.
I am leery of the 52% map in MS. In fact something tells me that in the 1980’s or maybe 1990’s there was a lawsuit that boosted the AA% for the Delta district to over 60%. I think 52% is just too low for MS. At least for judicial creation. I might add that friends of Judge Pickering drew the 2002 map that is still in place. So I don’t look for many changes in this state.
Now 52% in AR is probably acceptable as there is no AA district.
AS I said not sure what DOJ will do and not sure if “Must create” will be the standard for 2012. I leave that point to others. I might add if this was 1991 these maps would be up and running.
Under Bush 41, there was a push for two VRA districts in Alabama, but obviously it didn’t go through. I do think that the black population is spread out enough where another district makes sense.
I definitely hope there is a push for the second minority-majority seats in those two states.
While you AR map is good for Dems in principle, it won’t happen as AR dosen’t allow splitting of counties in the drawing of it’s CD’s.
For the main reasons that they haven’t required it the past few cycles, and because a 52% minority district in these states is probably likely to not elect a black Democrat. The Alabama map is the only one I think possible to be used. Arkansas violates “no county splitting”, is almost a racial gerrymander, and isn’t really in the interest of either state party.
The other side of things is, does the GOP in the south think that white Democrats are done? Prior to this cycle, there were 3 D seats in Arkansas, Mississippi, and Alabama; and Ds lost 2 seats in each state. If the GOP wants to make sure there are no new white Democrats, they may be inclined to go all-out on minority districts. Considering the R district being eliminated in MS was the one held by a Republican, that may not matter.
Is there any pushback from the right-wing blogsphere? What is their take, if any? (I’ve read the stuff on RRH suggesting “OK, we have to go at least this far to avoid court w/r/t these redistricting plans….”)
I’d assume there are fears from the right-wing from an Eric Holder-led DoJ, but do not know the arguments (if any) they’re making / prepping against the creation of additional VRA seats.
An interesting outcome of that map is that it would likely foreclose any chance of winning back AR-1 or AR-2 in a favorable political climate.
This is really excellent work. I love that Alabama map, it is the best 2nd VRA seat map I’ve ever seen.
Everything looks nicely evenly shaped, especially the Alabama one. It’s too bad the plan is to have only one district Democratic. As for the Mississippi map, I’m a bit colorblind so I couldn’t see if the district with 55% minority population was two different colors. Did you say that one district was based in Jackson, so it’s really small?
I like.
I think one could make the case for 2 VRA districts in LA or AL, and maybe even the case for one in AR. Depends on your preferences/reading of the VRA, etc. But two VRA districts in Mississippi is a perversion. In a district-based political system with four seats and a 60-40 split between majority group and minority group (D/R or Black/White–it’s more or less the same thing in MS), the majority group is gonna get three seats, and the minority group one (at best, 4-0 is often a reasonable outcome too). 2-2 is a Democratic gerrymander, plain and simple. And that’s fine if you’re advocating partisan gerrymandering, but the purpose of the VRA is not to enable partisan gerrymandering, let alone MANDATE it.
Just a side question…
I made a map for FL, but I cant figure out for the life of me how to make the pictures actually show up in my diary. I can get the links using photobucket or w/e, but idk how to make the picture show.
Help please? 🙂 ty
Can you send me a larger jpg of the Louisiana map? I have a friend on the LA Redistricting committee and I want him to see the map in detail.