Public Policy Polling (1/28-30, Arizona voters, no trendlines):
Terry Goddard (D): 40
Jon Kyl (R-inc): 50
Undecided: 9Phil Gordon (D): 33
Jon Kyl (R-inc): 54
Undecided: 13Ann Kirkpatrick (D): 35
Jon Kyl (R-inc): 51
Undecided: 14Janet Napolitano (D): 41
Jon Kyl (R-inc): 53
Undecided: 6
(MoE: ±4.0%)
This race hasn’t been high on Democrats’ wish lists, but it’s one of those races hanging around the margins that could become interesting under the right circumstances: with one or more of a Jon Kyl retirement (as has been increasingly rumored lately), an unusually good Dem candidate, and/or a substantial Dem uptick going into 2012. Without any of those (actually, I’d have considered Janet Napolitano that good candidate, but this poll seems to suggest otherwise), as this poll shows, it’s not really in close contention. I’d have been curious to see PPP try someone other than Kyl out for the GOP, but if he retires, there’ll be plenty of time to sort that out.
Kyl has 47/40 approvals, while Napolitano, seemingly having lost her bipartisan bona fides by joining the Obama administration, is at 40/55. Phoenix mayor Phil Gordon is even more noted for his bipartisanship… to the extent that he seems to have pissed everyone off equally; he’s at 19/37. The most popular Dem is ex-AG and 2010 gubernatorial candidate Terry Goddard at 43/35.
Speaking of a potential replacement for Kyl, AZ-06 Rep. Jeff Flake (who’s been known to be interested in a promotion) is now publicly saying that he’d think about running if Kyl retired. Flake is probably the second most libertarian-minded member of the whole House GOP, but that’s probably not a handicap for him running statewide in Arizona; he might wind up as strong a contender as Kyl. An open AZ-06 as currently configured wouldn’t be terribly interesting to Dems, as the heavily-Mormon, Mesa-based district is R+15… although given Arizona’s commission-based redistricting, the 6th could change a variety of ways.
What is it with Arizona :-/
Arizona is one just a few states that worries me. They seem to be one of those few states where even horrible, horrible candidates can win so long as they are Republican. Even states as partisan (on both sides) have some kind of introspection and internal dialogue, where they at least pretend to put forth their best candidates. That seems to be completely missing in AZ. You don’t have to be a Democrat to see that people like Jan Brewer and Jon Kyl are the absolute bottom of the barrel politicians.
Arizona is in sort of a bizarro-land at this point. It seems right on the verge of becoming a purple state, yet the state Democratic party is so far lost in the wilderness we’re in no position to capitalize on it. SB 1070 isn’t quite the death note for Democrats that everyone treats it to be (or else explain Rotellini’s 48%…), but as long as we have a state party that, say, doesn’t see a problem with leaving open a State Senate seat where Obama got 48% of the vote uncontested because it’s somehow heavily Republican territory, then we’ll get nowhere slowly.
I’m surprised to see Goddard on the verge of competitive though. The CW seemed to be that he’s lost one too many statewide races. He’s actually kinda old to be a freshman Senator though (64), so who knows if that’s a real possibility.
I keep saying, though, that Flake has a serious Achilles heal in the Republican primary: comprehensive immigration reform. His libertarian ways could make him an attractive general election candidate, but the Arizona Republican Party would have to change very dramatically very quickly for his views on immigration to not be a major problem. Hell, in his own district some dude with almost no campaign got 35% just for being on the ballot against him in last year’s primary.
Republicans have successfully used Immigration to turn
the state away from purple state to solid Red state.The way
It Is going Obama might just give up and do no play for Arizona.
I the only one who doesn’t hate these results? Goddard only trails him by ten. This suggests that in an open seat he would likely be competitive.