Politico’s Dave Catanese reports:
California Secretary of State Debra Bowen will announce Tuesday that she is joining the race to succeed former Democratic Rep. Jane Harman, according to a source close to Bowen.
Bowen joins Los Angeles City Councilwoman Janice Hahn in the race. Hahn, whose family is extremely well-connected in L.A. politics (her brother was once mayor), has been rolling out tons of endorsements in just the few days since she announced her candidacy. She now has the support of current mayor Antonio Villaraigosa (the guy who beat her brother), NBA legend Magic Johnson, and Sen. Diane Feinstein. However, Hahn’s electoral track-record has some bruises: She got crushed by Gavin Newsom in the Democratic primary for Lt. Gov. last year, and in 1998, she lost an open-seat race for this same seat to Republican Steve Kuykendall. (Al Gore won this district, which was later made bluer, by a 51-44 margin.)
But Bowen’s hesitancy in jumping in may have cost her, with large chunks of the local establishment already getting behind Hahn. Still, Bowen will have considerable resources of her own to bring to this contest. And because of California’s move to a “top-two” system (all candidates from all parties run together in a single “jungle” primary, with the top two vote-getters moving to a run-off, regardless of party, unless someone gets 50% in the first round), and because the Republican bench in this area is thin, we could potentially see an election decided in the end between two heavyweight Democrats.
UPDATE: Marcy Winograd is still mulling things over:
Marcy Winograd has said she wants to talk to Secretary of State Debra Bowen about her foreign policy positions before she decides whether she’ll also get into the special election in California’s 36th District. And so far, she’s still waiting.
The progressive activist who twice challenged Rep. Jane Harman (D-Calif.) in the Democratic primary said she’s emailed Bowen to try to talk and get answers to her questions on Bowen’s foreign policy positions. But as Bowen is launching her candidacy Tuesday, the two have yet to connect. Winograd has spoken with Bowen’s consultant Steve Barkan, and last Thursday Bowen left a message on Winograd’s answering machine, saying she was still researching some of the issues. Winograd emailed her again after that, but hasn’t heard back.
Winograd told Hotline On Call her chief concerns are whether a Rep. Bowen would join the Out of Afghanistan Caucus and the Progressive Caucus in the House and whether she’d be willing to lead a peace delegation to Palestine.
UPDATE 2: Bowen makes it official. (Hat-tip: jpmassar)
No text.
I would much rather her stay at Secretary of State and run for Governor or Senate in the future than be a member of the minority in the US House.
Hahn has the advantage here right now. As David pointed out, Hahn’s basically locked down every heavyhitter in CA politics from John Perez to Dianne Feinstein and basically locked down her turf. But at the same time I’m sure the Daily Kos and Democracy for America and the various elements netroots will get behind Bowen.
Now who will the unions get behind that’s the million dollar question right now. They still can swing elections up here in California, witnessed by the nurses’ union brining Whitman down and their backed candidate in a state senate primary race last year beating a candidate backed by Sacramento Democrats.
This sounds like a somewhat unrealistic demand to me, probably calculated to give Winograd a reason to enter.
To be very clear, I’m not trying to invite an issue discussion on this.
On the same topic, reading further into the Hotline piece, I found this statement.
Worldwide in the Middle East. Okay…?
1. Marcy Winograd is a joke. People voted against Harman in spite of how annoying she is. She’s just stroking her ego.
2. Bowen is the real deal, California progressives and the netroots are 100% united behind her. She would be a major asset in the Democratic Caucus, she has serious game. The Democrat most respected by the grassroots in California.
3. Janice Hahn is a legacy candidate, an empty suit who has already lost the district to the GOP. She has zero game, her only asset is her last name, which is worth nothing in DC. It would be a waste of a good seat to have her warming the back bench.
… but under Washington’s top-two model (which the California system is based upon) even if someone gets 50% in the jungle primary there’s still a general election between the top-two candidates.
Not very relevant here since there’s little chance anyone will get 50% in the first round, but just an FYI.
won’t happen until February 28th, per Roll Call.
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/…
I really can’t imagine most Democratic voters will take her seriously after that.
Winograd is a true flake I’d never support, some of her old Dkos diaries were jaw dropping (and I think later deleted by her). She was simply the only Harman protest choice available at the time.
I can see why the CA-36 job opening would be attractive to Bowen:
Bowen’s husband works in Washington.
And it’s the area she represented for 14 years in the state legislature before becoming SoS.
And it’s a free shot for her, if Hahn wins Bowen is still SoS.
But because Bowen has won statewide twice, that sort of makes her the #3 CA woman Democrat (behind the 2 Senators).
I’d rather she use that credential to run statewide again. Either Gov or Lt Gov in 4 years (I don’t know if Brown will be up to a second term at his age) or Senator if DiFi doesn’t complete her next term, or in 6 years assuming DiFi finally retires.
How Bowen had acquired her seemingly-universal good standing and reputation among net Dems and activists and so many others. I don’t mean to impugn her, or even to doubt that reputation…just honestly wondering given the relatively limited powers of her office–does anyone know of a good indepth profile of her? I mean, even if she did a good job with election security, how is everyone so sure she’s a true progressive, future star, etc, on other issues?
That Debra Bowen is probably more likely than Janice Hahn to end up living in the new CA-36 district. That is for the simple fact that the new redistricting rules will surely shunt the CA-46 Rohrabacher district over to Orange County (and perhaps Long Beach) which means the lower part of CA-36 has got to shift west to take in Palos Verdes.
Bowen lives in Marina Del Rey (about halfway between Santa Monica and Manhattan Beach) whereas Hahn lives in San Pedro down near the Port. Now, of course the new CA-36 could in theory have a more east-west rather than north-south orientation, but if you want to pack whites as effectively as possible (the inevitable consequence of making as many minorities available for the majority-minority seats) then you would definitely want the north-south orientation. And that could very well leave the Port and San Pedro out of the new CA-36.
Granted, residency isn’t a prerequisite and candidates often move, but it seems worth noting in any case.